In the beginning of the lecture, Professor Shiller talks about risk pooling as the fundamental concept of insurance, followed by references to moral hazard and selection bias as prominent problems of the insurance industry. In order to provide an explicit example from the insurance industry, he elaborates on the story behind American International Group (AIG), from its creation by Cornelius Vander Starr in Shanghai in 1919, to Maurice “Hank” Greenberg’s time as CEO, until its bailout by the U.S. government in 2008.

In the beginning of the lecture, Professor Shiller reviews the probability theory concepts from the last class and extends these concepts by the central limit theorem. Afterwards, he turns his attention toward the role of financial technology and financial invention within society, in particular with regard to the management of big and important risks.

Professor Shiller provides a description of the course, including its general theme, the relevant textbooks, as well as the interplay of his course with Professor Geanakoplos’s course “Economics 251 – Financial Theory.” Finance, in his view, is a pillar of civilized society, dealing with the allocation of resources through space and time in order to manage big and important risks. After talking about finance as an occupation, he emphasizes the moral imperative to use wealth for the purposes of philanthropy, in the spirit of Andrew Carnegie, but also of Bill Gates and Warren Buffett.

Three issues related to the impending end of the novel define this lecture. The first one is improvisation, as we see it in the confluence of actual geography with current historical events: the expulsion of the moriscos, and the Turkish and Huguenots menaces. With the story of Ricote, a kind of morisco novel in a nutshell, Cervantes provides a smorgasbord of narrative possibilities, and presents the consequences that political decisions have on common people.

The global AIDS pandemic furnishes a case study for many of the themes addressed throughout the course. While in the developed West the disease largely afflicts concentrated high-risk groups such as intravenous drug users and the sexually promiscuous, in Southern Africa it is much more a generalized disease of poverty. In countries such as Botswana and Swaziland, the economic and social consequences of the disease have created a vicious circle, whereby the devastation wrought by AIDS severely impedes public health efforts and prepares the way for further infection.