Data shows, consistently, that poor people have more children than rich people; economically speaking, children are an inferior good. Children are production goods because they do work, consumption goods because they are enjoyable, and investment goods because they support parents in old age. Jobs in the modern sector require education and health. To pay for this, parents have to focus their resources on fewer children.
1) Population in China: Until recently, Chinese families did not much alter their fertility depending on life events such as deaths of children. However, under government prodding and eventually coercion, fertility dropped drastically in China in the 1970s, but to counteract momentum, the One-Child Policy started in 1979-80. 2) Population Growth and Economic Development: In Asia, rapid fertility drops have preceded economic booms by approximately fifteen years. In this time, children grow up and become workers.
Families lived together in traditional China and sons remained on the land; division of family land led to tiny plots and rural poverty. Because labor was so cheap, the country did not urbanize or mechanize. The Communist government started out with a pro-natal stance, but after experiencing the famine of the Great Leap Forward, moved strongly to fertility control. Fertility declined rapidly in the 1970s, but to counter momentum, the One-Child Policy was introduced in 1979-80. Nevertheless, population has now risen to over 1.3 billion.
China’s early demographic history is similar to that of Europe; population grows only slowly due to war, disease and Malthusian resource limitation. Later, introduction of American foods allowed cultivated land to expand, but population expanded even more rapidly, leading to an extremely dense, but poor population. During this time, female infanticide was frequent, but almost all surviving girls got married. Within marriage, their fertility rate was much lower than that of their European counterparts.
In East and South Asia there are many more boys than girls. Previously, this resulted from female infanticide, now it is sex-selective abortion. In those cultures, girls generally marry out of the family as teenagers and thus provide no benefit for the family that raised them. Bangladesh is agriculturally very rich, but its population is so dense that per capita income is one of the lowest in Asia. Despite the poverty, an excellent family planning program has greatly reduced fertility.
By 1950, in most of the underdeveloped world, mortality had fallen to about half its pre-modern rate. The birth rate, however, had remained high and, by 1950, was about twice the death rate. For the rest of the century, both rates fell dramatically and in parallel, maintaining the gap. The enormous excess of births over deaths in this period is known as ‘the population explosion.’ By 1990, the world population was growing at almost 90 million a year.
Surveys show that most women are having more children than they would prefer to have. Further, studies show that the vast majority of women know about various forms of contraception. One World Bank study has shown that family planning programs have little impact unless they are attended by improved living standards and increasing status of women.
Until recently, the world population has been growing faster than exponentially. Although the growth rate has slowed somewhat, there are about 80 million more people each year and about 3 billion more will be added by 2050 (a 50% increase). Population will probably increase more beyond that. Such growth is unprecedented and we cannot predict its long-term effects. The environmental impact of this population increase is bound to be astronomic.
Concerns about low fertility have been present in many countries for at least 100 years. A large population was considered essential to national power. But the issue is never simply a shortage of warm bodies: overall the world population has increased dramatically over this period and untold numbers would immigrate, if allowed. The issue is the number of the ‘right sort’ of people, defined as those having preferred national, religious, racial, ethnic, or language characteristics. Fertility levels are below replacement in many economically advanced countries.
Census data is often politically influenced and hence inaccurate. The birthrate in developing countries is nearly twice that in developed countries. Most humans live in less developed countries, so the world birthrate is near the higher number. The world birthrate is two and a half times the death rate; we are not close to population stabilization. Almost everywhere, the death rate has been drastically reduced; further changes will not massively affect demographic trends. Changes in fertility rate now control population. Demographic data must be corrected for age structure.
