WEBVTT 00:02.730 --> 00:07.600 Prof: Today we're enjoying the first beautiful day 00:07.595 --> 00:09.415 in quite some time. 00:09.420 --> 00:13.040 Today we're very pleased to have William Ryerson as our 00:13.040 --> 00:16.390 guest speaker and he is President of the Population 00:16.393 --> 00:20.313 Media Center, which by the end of the lecture 00:20.310 --> 00:23.370 period you will know what that is. 00:23.370 --> 00:27.190 He graduated from Amherst College and then he became one 00:27.193 --> 00:27.753 of us. 00:27.750 --> 00:32.870 He was a graduate student at Yale studying entomology, 00:32.866 --> 00:35.276 the ecology of insects. 00:35.280 --> 00:38.700 In that field people seem to realize that humans are pushing 00:38.697 --> 00:40.837 even the insects out of existence, 00:40.840 --> 00:46.310 so he then became interested in the human aspects of ecological 00:46.314 --> 00:49.144 and population kind of things. 00:49.140 --> 00:52.660 Thirty-three years ago he started working in the field of 00:52.657 --> 00:54.037 reproductive health. 00:54.040 --> 00:58.670 Then after, I guess 15 years, in that he started being 00:58.665 --> 01:03.725 involved with a group that was making TV programs and radio 01:03.725 --> 01:09.135 dramas in developing countries and that are on social issues of 01:09.135 --> 01:14.455 things that are troubling the societies in which they're shown 01:14.459 --> 01:15.419 to. 01:15.420 --> 01:19.720 Eventually he founded this group, The Population Media 01:19.721 --> 01:24.511 Center, and is both the founder and the President of PMC. 01:24.510 --> 01:27.170 These soap operas are different than the kind of soap operas 01:27.168 --> 01:28.608 that we're used to in America. 01:28.610 --> 01:33.140 Their purpose is to explore this social change and deal with 01:33.140 --> 01:37.060 the issues that are of great currency for developing 01:37.056 --> 01:41.276 countries where the cultures are changing rapidly in one 01:41.279 --> 01:46.739 direction or another, or not changing rapidly as the 01:46.742 --> 01:48.182 case may be. 01:48.180 --> 01:51.800 One of the big foci is women's reproductive issues, 01:51.800 --> 01:56.660 population issues, HIV issues, child bride issues, 01:56.660 --> 02:00.620 all the kinds of--a lot of the ones that we've been talking 02:00.623 --> 02:02.063 about in the class. 02:02.060 --> 02:05.530 What's nice about him, and due to his Yale training of 02:05.525 --> 02:08.785 course, is that both in the design of 02:08.788 --> 02:11.658 these programs, he uses really good academic 02:11.662 --> 02:13.722 research, what's really known about 02:13.716 --> 02:16.826 social change and the induction of social change, 02:16.830 --> 02:20.070 they just don't go off and be artsy-fartsy about anything. 02:20.068 --> 02:24.368 They really study what is the successful way of doing this. 02:24.370 --> 02:26.660 Not only that, then there's really three 02:26.657 --> 02:28.297 stages of professionalism. 02:28.300 --> 02:32.270 One, understanding the academic stuff so you know what you're 02:32.272 --> 02:33.752 doing, then getting the very best 02:33.752 --> 02:35.352 people in whatever country you're working in, 02:35.348 --> 02:37.798 the real good actors, the major producers, 02:37.800 --> 02:41.090 and groups that really know what they're doing in terms of 02:41.085 --> 02:43.905 entertainment and that leads to great success, 02:43.910 --> 02:45.730 which he'll describe. 02:45.729 --> 02:47.369 Then further, the third step, 02:47.373 --> 02:49.433 is once you've done it, did it work, 02:49.430 --> 02:52.840 and that's the real serious research, finding out if you've 02:52.836 --> 02:54.066 done something. 02:54.068 --> 02:56.718 You're hoping to incorporate some sort of social change, 02:56.715 --> 02:57.625 well did it work? 02:57.628 --> 03:01.808 That's not easy, but again Bill's group has used 03:01.811 --> 03:07.241 the most careful and stringent academic research to try to get 03:07.238 --> 03:08.838 at that issue. 03:08.840 --> 03:13.760 These programs have turned out to be very popular successes and 03:13.763 --> 03:18.533 you will hear about that and they have indeed been successful 03:18.527 --> 03:20.987 in fostering social change. 03:20.990 --> 03:23.990 I put Bill into the category of 'people who have made a 03:23.991 --> 03:24.771 difference.' 03:24.770 --> 03:29.560 This is not a huge category, and so I'm very proud--to 03:29.560 --> 03:31.640 introduce him to you. 03:31.639 --> 03:35.399 William Ryerson: Bob, thank you very much, 03:35.395 --> 03:37.385 pleasure to be with you. 03:37.389 --> 03:40.679 As Bob said, I started my career here at 03:40.680 --> 03:45.320 Yale as a graduate student in ecology and evolution, 03:45.318 --> 03:49.198 and it was just 40 years ago last October that I sat in the 03:49.198 --> 03:53.078 audience at the Forestry School and heard Paul Ehrlich talk 03:53.077 --> 03:56.017 about his then recently published book, 03:56.020 --> 03:58.110 The Population Bomb. 03:58.110 --> 04:02.180 He had been invited to give that lecture by Charles 04:02.177 --> 04:05.187 Remington who founded this course, 04:05.188 --> 04:09.468 and who was, along with Paul and an attorney 04:09.471 --> 04:12.061 from Connecticut named-- 04:12.060 --> 04:19.350 04:19.350 --> 04:21.860 whatever his name was, an attorney from Connecticut, 04:21.860 --> 04:24.100 along with Paul and Charlie Remington, 04:24.100 --> 04:28.690 founded Zero Population Growth immediately after the lecture 04:28.694 --> 04:30.024 that Paul gave. 04:30.019 --> 04:33.729 I had dinner with Paul at Remington's house that night, 04:33.733 --> 04:38.003 got very interested in--Dick Bowers was the attorney's name. 04:38.000 --> 04:40.990 I knew it would come to me sooner or later when those 04:40.990 --> 04:42.200 synapses connected. 04:42.199 --> 04:47.249 --I had dinner with Ehrlich at Remington's house that night, 04:47.247 --> 04:52.377 took a huge interest in this issue, which of course continues 04:52.380 --> 04:53.750 to this day. 04:53.750 --> 04:59.370 We're growing by the equivalent of a new Egypt every year on a 04:59.374 --> 05:03.954 global level, about 82 million net growth and 05:03.952 --> 05:09.162 the environmental impact of that growth is immense. 05:09.160 --> 05:12.490 I began, at that point, to think about how to address 05:12.492 --> 05:16.022 population issues, how to try to bring about a 05:16.024 --> 05:19.024 slowing of population growth rates, 05:19.019 --> 05:24.819 and how to also ameliorate the impact of humans on the planet. 05:24.819 --> 05:27.859 05:27.860 --> 05:31.000 The conventional wisdom at the time was to set up family 05:30.995 --> 05:33.785 planning clinics, which indeed was a good idea. 05:33.790 --> 05:37.730 A lot of that happened, particularly in the 1970s with 05:37.733 --> 05:41.233 strong financial support and leadership from the 05:41.232 --> 05:44.732 U.S. Government, something that changed over the 05:44.730 --> 05:49.120 last few decades but is coming back into popularity with the 05:49.120 --> 05:51.280 new administration. 05:51.279 --> 05:56.049 Indeed, what became evident, even in the 1970s, 05:56.053 --> 06:01.453 was that the solution was not just the medical model, 06:01.451 --> 06:05.501 setting up family planning clinics. 06:05.500 --> 06:12.410 Indeed, there was a need to get people to use them. 06:12.410 --> 06:16.300 There was great progress made, particularly in the 1970s in 06:16.302 --> 06:18.922 meeting the already existing demand, 06:18.920 --> 06:24.440 so we went from 10% of the world's couples using modern 06:24.439 --> 06:30.779 methods of contraception in 1960 to somewhere in the 40% in the 06:30.776 --> 06:37.006 late 1970s and then since then it has crept up to 55% of adult 06:37.012 --> 06:40.592 couples using modern methods. 06:40.589 --> 06:46.399 The 45% non-users, however, outnumber the 90% 06:46.399 --> 06:52.869 non-users of 1960 because of population growth. 06:52.870 --> 06:56.700 We have as big a problem ahead of us as we did in 1960, 06:56.699 --> 07:00.459 but we also have another problem, which is the reasons 07:00.459 --> 07:02.659 that they give for non-use. 07:02.660 --> 07:06.940 Back in the early 1960s the primary reason was lack of 07:06.935 --> 07:09.675 access to contraceptive methods. 07:09.680 --> 07:14.690 Now, in country after country, it's less than 2% who give that 07:14.689 --> 07:18.299 as their reason, and the number one reason is 07:18.303 --> 07:22.133 wanting more children; that is, the bulk of the 07:22.129 --> 07:24.099 non-users of contraception. 07:24.100 --> 07:31.030 When you take them out, maybe 200 million couples, 07:31.028 --> 07:37.588 there is another 100 million that are not using contraception 07:37.593 --> 07:42.193 but don't want an additional pregnancy, 07:42.190 --> 07:44.230 at least not in the next two years, 07:44.230 --> 07:47.500 which is the standard question that's asked in demographic and 07:47.497 --> 07:48.407 health surveys. 07:48.410 --> 07:52.520 The top four reasons they give for their non-use are fear of 07:52.524 --> 07:55.964 side effects, they've heard its dangerous, 07:55.964 --> 07:59.234 male opposition, religious opposition, 07:59.230 --> 08:00.410 and fatalism. 08:00.410 --> 08:04.490 Now a couple of stories about these; 08:04.490 --> 08:07.950 fear of side effects is something that indeed has been 08:07.952 --> 08:11.482 intentionally planted by some religious zealots who are 08:11.482 --> 08:14.502 spreading rumors, particularly around east 08:14.497 --> 08:17.517 Africa, that condoms contain the AIDS virus, 08:17.519 --> 08:21.009 so people are actually dying because of this misinformation. 08:21.009 --> 08:24.319 They're afraid of using condoms, they have heard that 08:24.317 --> 08:27.367 they contain the HIV virus, and so they're having 08:27.370 --> 08:30.360 unprotected sex and getting AIDS and dying. 08:30.360 --> 08:33.360 It's really a criminal misinformation campaign 08:33.360 --> 08:37.030 motivated by people who just think artificial methods of 08:37.025 --> 08:40.755 contraception are not a good idea for theological reasons 08:40.759 --> 08:44.159 that most of their victims don't understand, 08:44.158 --> 08:48.808 and, for that matter, that I don't understand but 08:48.809 --> 08:50.069 I've tried. 08:50.070 --> 08:52.660 Male opposition is in part--male opposition, 08:52.660 --> 08:55.920 and it's in part lack of communication between husbands 08:55.916 --> 08:56.756 and wives. 08:56.759 --> 08:59.529 So, sometimes, in traditional societies, 08:59.529 --> 09:02.209 women think their husbands are opposed, 09:02.210 --> 09:05.890 but they've never had a conversation about it in their 09:05.886 --> 09:09.356 married life because this is something that they're 09:09.356 --> 09:11.296 embarrassed to bring up. 09:11.298 --> 09:15.728 Fatalism is the subject of a very interesting paper by 09:15.727 --> 09:17.647 Etienne Van Der Walt. 09:17.649 --> 09:18.849 Prof: They've read it. 09:18.850 --> 09:21.140 William Ryerson: Oh, you've read it. 09:21.142 --> 09:24.342 Okay so you know about fatalism and beliefs that whatever God 09:24.341 --> 09:27.651 has decided for you must be fine without any idea that you have 09:27.647 --> 09:30.097 the right and the ability to determine-- 09:30.100 --> 09:33.490 your own outcomes of your family life. 09:33.490 --> 09:36.970 Then religious opposition, when I say this in the mass 09:36.972 --> 09:40.792 media I always draw a lot of fire, but there is no religion 09:40.785 --> 09:43.345 that is opposed to family planning. 09:43.350 --> 09:45.660 You may have heard otherwise. 09:45.658 --> 09:48.908 There are religions, like the Catholic Church and 09:48.913 --> 09:51.493 some conservative mullahs in Islam, 09:51.490 --> 09:53.870 who are opposed to certain methods of family planning, 09:53.870 --> 09:56.400 but there is no religion that is preaching that everybody 09:56.398 --> 09:58.338 should have as many children as possible. 09:58.340 --> 10:03.220 Indeed, the Catholic Church is in favor of people limiting 10:03.221 --> 10:08.961 their childbearing to those they can afford to care for and love. 10:08.960 --> 10:13.360 The issue is what methods are appropriate and certainly we 10:13.359 --> 10:17.989 know from Catholic teachings that methods that are considered 10:17.990 --> 10:20.460 artificial are not approved. 10:20.460 --> 10:22.160 But, indeed, the church goes to great 10:22.164 --> 10:24.964 lengths to teach what we used to call the rhythm method, 10:24.960 --> 10:30.940 periodic abstinence as a way of avoiding unwanted or unplanned 10:30.942 --> 10:32.122 pregnancy. 10:32.120 --> 10:36.220 In the world of Islam there are liberal thinkers who are Islamic 10:36.219 --> 10:38.969 scholars, like Kutbuddin Aziz of 10:38.970 --> 10:42.910 Pakistan, who have written that the Koran, 10:42.908 --> 10:46.248 by calling on women to breastfeed their infants for at 10:46.250 --> 10:49.880 least two years, is inherently endorsing family 10:49.879 --> 10:50.689 planning. 10:50.690 --> 10:52.230 The Koran doesn't mention family planning, 10:52.230 --> 10:56.680 but by asking that women breastfeed their infants for two 10:56.684 --> 10:59.554 years in low nutrition societies, 10:59.548 --> 11:03.158 this means the woman must avoid pregnancy. 11:03.158 --> 11:08.398 So there are in fact official findings at Al-Iman University 11:08.399 --> 11:09.909 to that effect. 11:09.908 --> 11:14.048 Some Muslim countries are making huge strides in adopting 11:14.052 --> 11:17.442 family planning, the leading one being Iran, 11:17.443 --> 11:21.123 which is now down at replacement level fertility. 11:21.120 --> 11:24.520 In part, driven by the Ayatollah's in that country who 11:24.518 --> 11:26.248 are promoting family use. 11:26.250 --> 11:29.540 In Pakistan now, the mosques are handing out 11:29.535 --> 11:30.755 contraception. 11:30.759 --> 11:35.979 So there's a dramatic change going on in the world of Islam. 11:35.980 --> 11:40.640 Having been in the population field for a long time, 11:40.643 --> 11:46.133 I happened to go to the first World Population Conference. 11:46.129 --> 11:49.869 By the way, I got involved with Ehrlich and Remington and 11:49.870 --> 11:53.410 starting a Yale Chapter of Zero Population Growth, 11:53.408 --> 11:57.188 it no longer exists, and ended up on the National 11:57.186 --> 12:00.566 Executive Committee of that organization. 12:00.570 --> 12:02.980 I went to work with The Population Institute in 12:02.976 --> 12:05.416 Washington, an organization which I now 12:05.421 --> 12:09.291 also am President of, as of six months ago, 12:09.289 --> 12:15.029 just to keep me from running out of things to do. 12:15.028 --> 12:18.748 At this first world conference on population, 12:18.754 --> 12:23.074 held in Bucharest in 1974, I took 65 students and 20 12:23.073 --> 12:26.043 faculty members from around the U.S. 12:26.038 --> 12:30.778 to cover this event for newspapers across the U.S. 12:30.778 --> 12:33.938 Each of the students was accredited with a particular 12:33.937 --> 12:36.607 newspaper and they all went as reporters, 12:36.610 --> 12:40.460 and they filed daily reports, and it literally generated 12:40.460 --> 12:43.960 hundreds of news articles about this conference. 12:43.960 --> 12:46.970 Margaret Mead happened to be at this conference, 12:46.970 --> 12:49.540 as did a colleague of mine from the institute, 12:49.538 --> 12:53.868 David Poindexter who now is the Honorary Chair of Population 12:53.869 --> 12:54.969 Media Center. 12:54.970 --> 12:59.440 The two of them looked at the proposed plan of action that the 12:59.436 --> 12:59.726 U.N. 12:59.729 --> 13:04.119 had put together and found that there was no reference to the 13:04.121 --> 13:05.661 status of women. 13:05.658 --> 13:09.488 So, they sat down and wrote a paragraph about the status of 13:09.485 --> 13:13.245 women and took it to Phil Claxton, who was the head of the 13:13.245 --> 13:13.505 U.S. 13:13.509 --> 13:17.139 delegation, a staff member of the State Department Under 13:17.136 --> 13:21.286 Secretary General--I mean Under Secretary of State Department on 13:21.293 --> 13:23.143 Population Affairs. 13:23.139 --> 13:26.069 They said, 'Phil, the plan of action says nothing 13:26.068 --> 13:29.738 about the status of women, so we've written a paragraph, 13:29.739 --> 13:33.739 could you please introduce this in the planning session of the 13:33.735 --> 13:35.695 intergovernmental meeting?' 13:35.700 --> 13:39.200 He said, 'Well this is a meeting about family planning, 13:39.198 --> 13:42.308 what's the status of women got to do with it?' 13:42.308 --> 13:45.248 By 1994, the most recent U.N. Conference, 13:45.250 --> 13:49.140 which I also attended, the world had come to recognize 13:49.144 --> 13:53.414 that the status of women is central to everything having to 13:53.408 --> 13:58.258 do not only with population but with economic development. 13:58.259 --> 14:02.799 If you educate daughters, you educate the families of the 14:02.798 --> 14:05.798 future, whereas, if you educate a man, 14:05.797 --> 14:07.577 you educate a man. 14:07.580 --> 14:11.180 There is a huge need to change the bias among many people 14:11.182 --> 14:14.592 around the world that their daughter's place is in the 14:14.592 --> 14:17.202 kitchen, or for sale to some man in a 14:17.198 --> 14:20.878 polygamous marriage, and their son's place is in 14:20.880 --> 14:21.560 school. 14:21.558 --> 14:25.358 Indeed, promoting behavior change in that area, 14:25.360 --> 14:29.680 and the human rights of women to play an equal role with their 14:29.683 --> 14:33.873 husbands in making decisions about family life is critically 14:33.866 --> 14:34.856 important. 14:34.860 --> 14:40.950 Now the first real interest I took in the population field, 14:40.950 --> 14:46.130 after hearing Ehrlich's talk about the ecological impact of 14:46.128 --> 14:50.948 human encroachment on the wild lands of the planet, 14:50.950 --> 14:57.130 and the threat to biodiversity, was the impact of different age 14:57.128 --> 15:02.508 structures of human populations on economic welfare. 15:02.509 --> 15:06.719 There is a Princeton--now deceased Princeton demographer 15:06.716 --> 15:09.466 and economist named Ainsley Cole, 15:09.470 --> 15:13.200 who did a lot of work in this area and I wrote-- 15:13.200 --> 15:19.080 a paper at the Forestry School about his studies of the 15:19.082 --> 15:25.622 dependency ratios that grow from different age structures. 15:25.620 --> 15:29.080 That is to say, the number of non-working 15:29.077 --> 15:33.407 children per working adult, and in very large family 15:33.408 --> 15:37.168 societies, i.e., rapid population growth 15:37.172 --> 15:40.042 countries, which are mostly low income, 15:40.044 --> 15:43.224 people spend a very high percentage of their income on 15:43.216 --> 15:46.026 immediate survival needs of their children, 15:46.029 --> 15:48.559 food, housing, and clothing. 15:48.558 --> 15:54.178 When they reduce family size, even without any change in 15:54.182 --> 15:57.872 family income, there's money left over and 15:57.870 --> 16:01.990 that money can be spent on elective goods which stimulates 16:01.986 --> 16:04.006 the manufacturing sector. 16:04.009 --> 16:07.249 It can be invested in education, it can be invested 16:07.254 --> 16:09.914 through the government and infrastructure, 16:09.914 --> 16:12.904 both of those build economic productivity. 16:12.899 --> 16:16.889 Most important, it can be saved and put into 16:16.885 --> 16:21.985 investments or just savings accounts that builds capital 16:21.985 --> 16:26.895 that allows businesses to borrow money and grow, 16:26.899 --> 16:28.369 building employment. 16:28.370 --> 16:32.540 Indeed, it's the lack of capital in many poor, 16:32.538 --> 16:35.468 rapid population growth, countries that is keeping 16:35.467 --> 16:37.617 business from expanding and that, 16:37.620 --> 16:42.120 as a result, is leading to economic 16:42.119 --> 16:43.839 stagnation. 16:43.840 --> 16:48.900 When you look at the history of the countries that have gone 16:48.897 --> 16:53.777 from developing status to developed status since World War 16:53.783 --> 16:55.323 II, South Korea, 16:55.321 --> 16:57.451 Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore, 16:57.450 --> 17:00.390 Taiwan, The Bahamas, and Barbados, 17:00.390 --> 17:05.380 each of those countries first instituted strong voluntary 17:05.383 --> 17:11.003 family planning programs and then their economies took off. 17:11.000 --> 17:15.580 Because once the fertility rate got down below about 2.3 money 17:15.582 --> 17:18.682 was left over, capital was formed, 17:18.681 --> 17:22.901 businesses expanded, and some of the Asian tigers, 17:22.902 --> 17:25.382 China being the lead among them, 17:25.380 --> 17:29.430 now are undergoing rapid economic growth for the same 17:29.429 --> 17:30.129 reason. 17:30.130 --> 17:35.940 Obviously, economic policies and various other factors affect 17:35.941 --> 17:41.851 this but demographics are a key aspect of economic welfare. 17:41.848 --> 17:44.318 Infrastructure is also, as I mentioned, 17:44.324 --> 17:46.934 a key issue for economic productivity. 17:46.930 --> 17:50.400 If you don't have roads to get your crops or products to 17:50.398 --> 17:53.058 market, you don't have airports, 17:53.057 --> 17:58.157 you don't have clean water, and a lot of other things that 17:58.163 --> 18:01.353 public infrastructure consists of, 18:01.348 --> 18:06.458 number one being education, schools for the upcoming 18:06.457 --> 18:10.957 generations, then your economy is going to 18:10.961 --> 18:11.791 falter. 18:11.788 --> 18:16.778 The average developing country spends $13,000 for public 18:16.779 --> 18:19.229 infrastructure: schools, 18:19.230 --> 18:21.920 roads, municipal offices, water, sewer, 18:21.920 --> 18:27.560 etc., electricity over the lifetime of each person, 18:27.558 --> 18:30.688 so a per capita expenditure of $13,000. 18:30.690 --> 18:34.820 When you multiply $13,000 times the net growth of the world's 18:34.821 --> 18:38.611 population every year of 82 million, what do you get? 18:38.608 --> 18:41.988 Have you done that in your head already? 18:41.990 --> 18:44.520 Its a trillion dollars a year. 18:44.519 --> 18:49.669 The price tag just to keep per capita infrastructure even in 18:49.667 --> 18:54.897 countries around the developing world is a trillion dollars a 18:54.904 --> 18:55.694 year. 18:55.690 --> 18:58.620 They are coming nowhere near making this expenditure, 18:58.616 --> 19:01.196 they can't; they don't have that kind of 19:01.201 --> 19:04.311 money, in part because of economic stagnation. 19:04.308 --> 19:09.428 That is being aggravated by rural to urban migration and so 19:09.432 --> 19:14.202 you see urban centers in developing countries where the 19:14.201 --> 19:18.441 urban infrastructure is totally overwhelmed. 19:18.440 --> 19:20.580 I was in Kinshasa a year and a half ago, 19:20.578 --> 19:23.948 in Democratic Republic of the Congo, 19:23.950 --> 19:28.700 and that's a city that has infrastructure designed to 19:28.702 --> 19:34.282 handle 600,000 people with ten million people living there. 19:34.279 --> 19:37.509 In fact, hundreds of thousands of people are sleeping on open 19:37.506 --> 19:40.336 ground; they just have no place to 19:40.336 --> 19:40.966 sleep. 19:40.970 --> 19:43.010 The city floods every time it rains. 19:43.009 --> 19:47.139 There's inadequate sewage protection--or sewage treatment. 19:47.140 --> 19:50.610 And the nuclear power plant that the Belgians, 19:50.612 --> 19:53.702 in their wisdom, put in before they left, 19:53.699 --> 19:57.249 is sitting at the edge of an erosion zone. 19:57.250 --> 20:00.710 They don't have the money to stop it so the plant is in 20:00.714 --> 20:02.324 danger of falling over. 20:02.318 --> 20:08.868 The environmental advisor to the governor of Kinshasa state, 20:08.868 --> 20:12.208 who met my plane, said he's been trying to-- 20:12.210 --> 20:15.280 he and the governor have been trying to get the President of 20:15.282 --> 20:18.412 the country to shut the nuclear power plant down because, 20:18.410 --> 20:21.010 if it falls over, it's going to make the whole 20:21.008 --> 20:22.878 area, including Brazzaville across 20:22.884 --> 20:25.484 the river, uninhabitable for thousands of 20:25.476 --> 20:25.936 years. 20:25.940 --> 20:29.610 But, the President won't shut it down because he wants to get 20:29.609 --> 20:32.969 enough nuclear by-product to build a bomb so he can bomb 20:32.974 --> 20:35.244 Rwanda, because Rwanda has troops 20:35.241 --> 20:38.121 operating in eastern Congo, which I visited. 20:38.118 --> 20:41.318 I was in Goma about a little less than a year ago and I 20:41.321 --> 20:44.111 thought Kinshasa was bad until I got to Goma. 20:44.108 --> 20:50.218 Goma is where the fighting has been going on recently in North 20:50.224 --> 20:51.834 Kivu Province. 20:51.828 --> 20:56.538 Now when you see these extreme examples of lack of 20:56.542 --> 21:02.222 infrastructure you realize this analysis by Ainsley Cole was 21:02.219 --> 21:04.239 really prophetic. 21:04.240 --> 21:09.730 Now the environmental impacts that Paul Ehrlich talked about 21:09.729 --> 21:14.569 have gone way beyond loss of wild lands and threat to 21:14.567 --> 21:16.147 biodiversity. 21:16.150 --> 21:21.050 In fact, one of the biggest environmental threats, 21:21.053 --> 21:26.763 right now, is pumping out water from underground aquifers, 21:26.757 --> 21:30.757 80% of which is used for irrigation. 21:30.759 --> 21:34.739 In China, in India, in the American Southwest, 21:34.740 --> 21:41.510 in every continent on the planet, because of our growing 21:41.510 --> 21:46.190 population and the demand for food, 21:46.190 --> 21:49.650 which you may have noticed went up in price recently, 21:49.650 --> 21:53.000 the farmers of the world are pumping out the underground 21:52.998 --> 21:56.348 aquifers at rates higher than the rate of replacement by 21:56.346 --> 21:57.196 rainwater. 21:57.200 --> 21:59.730 This is a classic example of something that's not 21:59.730 --> 22:00.470 sustainable. 22:00.470 --> 22:04.600 It's like taking money out of the bank to pay for your daily 22:04.598 --> 22:05.858 living expenses. 22:05.859 --> 22:07.939 You can only do that so long. 22:07.940 --> 22:12.450 The water table in India is dropping by ten feet a year. 22:12.450 --> 22:16.960 A thousand farmers of India a couple of weeks ago committed 22:16.961 --> 22:18.131 mass suicide. 22:18.130 --> 22:22.450 They are having crop failures as they can no longer drill deep 22:22.446 --> 22:24.426 enough to reach the water. 22:24.430 --> 22:27.890 India's green revolution, which bought India maybe 30 22:27.888 --> 22:31.538 years of time, according to Norman Borlaug who 22:31.537 --> 22:36.327 won the Nobel Prize for his research on high-yield wheat and 22:36.328 --> 22:38.448 rice, and by the way, 22:38.454 --> 22:42.834 who is a member of our program advisory board. 22:42.828 --> 22:48.128 The green revolution crops are dependent on high volumes of 22:48.128 --> 22:51.508 water for irrigation and cheap oil. 22:51.509 --> 22:56.269 Not only to run the tractors but to make pesticides and 22:56.273 --> 22:59.483 fertilizer, to keep these crops growing, 22:59.479 --> 23:03.559 and in fact there's an article in The New York Times 23:03.558 --> 23:07.568 within the last week about the coming failure of the green 23:07.568 --> 23:10.698 revolution crops of India, but every country, 23:10.696 --> 23:13.436 or at least every continent, is facing this problem. 23:13.440 --> 23:21.380 23:21.380 --> 23:27.050 The yellow river in China does not reach the ocean two-thirds 23:27.046 --> 23:32.426 of the year because it's all being used for irrigation. 23:32.430 --> 23:36.700 What is keeping the rivers of India and China flowing 23:36.700 --> 23:41.380 periodically is the melting of the Himalayan glaciers that 23:41.382 --> 23:45.162 occurrs seasonally and waters those lands. 23:45.160 --> 23:48.970 However, with climate change, we're losing the glaciers and 23:48.969 --> 23:52.279 when they disappear, which will be in this century 23:52.280 --> 23:55.880 at the rate things are going and probably in the next three 23:55.884 --> 23:59.474 decades, that combined with inability to 23:59.472 --> 24:04.982 find any more underground water will lead to traumatic crises 24:04.976 --> 24:07.816 with regard to food in Asia. 24:07.818 --> 24:11.438 And, for that matter, the same thing is happening in 24:11.442 --> 24:15.852 Africa and we're losing farmland in the American Southwest with 24:15.847 --> 24:17.977 the same process going on. 24:17.980 --> 24:23.540 This is a crisis in the making of global proportions combined 24:23.538 --> 24:28.728 with climate change which is causing rainfall patterns to 24:28.728 --> 24:33.048 change, and in some places rainfall to 24:33.048 --> 24:34.118 decrease. 24:34.118 --> 24:41.258 Climate change is indeed the very visible example of why our 24:41.256 --> 24:45.486 current pattern is unsustainable. 24:45.490 --> 24:50.680 We are already above 350 ppm in the atmosphere of carbon 24:50.684 --> 24:51.634 dioxide. 24:51.630 --> 24:55.260 That means, even if we stop driving cars and stop heating 24:55.259 --> 24:59.549 with oil tomorrow, and we burn no more fossil 24:59.553 --> 25:03.623 fuels of any kind, we are already going to have 25:03.615 --> 25:05.415 devastating climate change. 25:05.420 --> 25:08.990 The arguments going on in the halls of Congress are, 25:08.990 --> 25:12.070 can we reduce the rate of increase, 25:12.068 --> 25:17.438 or can we maybe become so efficient that we level off or 25:17.443 --> 25:22.823 slightly decrease our rates of greenhouse gas output? 25:22.818 --> 25:28.448 This is like arguing over which deck chairs to sit in on the 25:28.445 --> 25:29.395 Titanic. 25:29.400 --> 25:34.400 Unless we actually stop producing greenhouse gases and 25:34.395 --> 25:39.855 find technology to withdraw carbon dioxide and methane from 25:39.864 --> 25:43.414 the atmosphere, the climate is going over a 25:43.414 --> 25:44.654 cliff this century. 25:44.650 --> 25:49.620 Now, don't slit your wrists, there are things we can do. 25:49.618 --> 25:53.918 We have the technology to solve a lot of these problems and, 25:53.922 --> 25:57.862 indeed, the population issue is a clear cut example. 25:57.858 --> 26:00.248 Population, by the way, is a climate issue. 26:00.250 --> 26:06.670 How many children you have is a climate related decision because 26:06.667 --> 26:08.207 if, as an American, 26:08.205 --> 26:12.215 Americans have the highest per capita output of greenhouse gas, 26:12.220 --> 26:17.580 you have two children each of whom consume 10% less than you 26:17.575 --> 26:22.555 do, you're still creating an impact 26:22.557 --> 26:25.417 on the environment. 26:25.420 --> 26:29.770 If you have three children, you and your partner or spouse 26:29.769 --> 26:32.669 are more than replacing yourselves, 26:32.670 --> 26:36.680 and you're having a potentially devastating impact on the 26:36.682 --> 26:40.482 environment if a lot people make the same decision. 26:40.480 --> 26:43.040 Decisions on reducing family size, 26:43.038 --> 26:45.508 in developed countries in particular, 26:45.509 --> 26:49.699 are the least expensive intervention we can make to 26:49.701 --> 26:52.301 reduce impact on the climate. 26:52.298 --> 26:56.398 Even in the developing world, where population growth is 26:56.396 --> 27:00.486 occurring the fastest, the rather optimistic median 27:00.492 --> 27:05.202 projection of the United Nations between now and 2050 is the 27:05.198 --> 27:07.908 addition of 2.5 billion people. 27:07.910 --> 27:09.550 That's eight times the U.S. 27:09.549 --> 27:10.279 population. 27:10.278 --> 27:15.268 At the rates of greenhouse gas output, on a per capita level, 27:15.267 --> 27:20.257 it's the carbon equivalent of adding two United States to the 27:20.255 --> 27:21.165 planet. 27:21.170 --> 27:23.090 If we don't solve the population problem, 27:23.093 --> 27:25.503 we're not going to solve the climate crisis either, 27:25.497 --> 27:27.947 so there are a whole bunch of things facing us. 27:27.950 --> 27:30.570 Now how do we address all of these behavioral things, 27:30.567 --> 27:32.477 including the behavior of Americans? 27:32.480 --> 27:35.200 Well clearly the mass media is influential. 27:35.200 --> 27:38.610 Is there anybody here who's never watched television? 27:38.608 --> 27:42.938 No, now when I grew up we did not have a television. 27:42.940 --> 27:45.140 They existed, but my parents thought they 27:45.143 --> 27:47.623 were a bad idea, and they may have been right, 27:47.623 --> 27:48.563 I don't know. 27:48.558 --> 27:51.938 We went over to our friend's house and watched TV, 27:51.940 --> 27:56.280 but indeed, we listened to radio programs and in many of 27:56.284 --> 28:00.314 the developing world countries, people still spend their 28:00.313 --> 28:03.843 evenings listening to the radio because they can't afford TVs. 28:03.838 --> 28:07.708 In Ethiopia only 4% of the population can afford a 28:07.711 --> 28:11.981 television, but radio is listened to by a vast majority 28:11.980 --> 28:13.720 of the population. 28:13.720 --> 28:16.970 In our programs we use primarily radio, 28:16.972 --> 28:22.282 although this methodology that I'm going to tell you about came 28:22.281 --> 28:25.281 out of the world of television. 28:25.278 --> 28:27.328 These are the countries in which we have been working. 28:27.328 --> 28:30.668 We do long running serialized dramas, 28:30.670 --> 28:33.610 sometimes referred to as soap operas, 28:33.608 --> 28:37.258 in which characters evolve into role models for the audience for 28:37.261 --> 28:40.151 elevation of women's status, daughter education, 28:40.147 --> 28:43.957 use of family planning, small family norms. 28:43.960 --> 28:48.130 We're looking at the idea of applying this strategy in the 28:48.127 --> 28:52.517 United States to address climate issues and teenage pregnancy 28:52.515 --> 28:53.315 issues. 28:53.319 --> 28:54.759 We also do talk shows. 28:54.759 --> 28:59.379 We've produced print materials, but it is the entertainment 28:59.384 --> 29:04.334 serialized dramas that are on primetime in these countries, 29:04.328 --> 29:06.498 where we have the largest audiences, 29:06.500 --> 29:09.980 and therefore have the biggest potential for impact. 29:09.980 --> 29:14.790 The creator of this methodology is a Mexican producer named 29:14.787 --> 29:18.927 Miguel Sabido who was Vice President of the biggest 29:18.931 --> 29:25.201 commercial network in Mexico, Televisa, until his retirement 29:25.202 --> 29:26.242 in 1998. 29:26.240 --> 29:32.110 In 1975, after looking at the social learning theory of 29:32.105 --> 29:36.445 Stanford psychologist Albert Bandura, 29:36.450 --> 29:40.820 who still is looking at how role models influence behavior 29:40.821 --> 29:44.821 psychologically, still is teaching at Stanford, 29:44.817 --> 29:49.637 and is probably the world's best known psychologist and is 29:49.636 --> 29:54.116 the most frequently cited psychologist in professional 29:54.118 --> 29:58.008 journal articles of those who are living. 29:58.009 --> 30:02.569 He went up to actually interview Bandura and went back 30:02.570 --> 30:07.650 to Mexico to create a program to promote adult education. 30:07.650 --> 30:11.260 He realized, from his work in overseeing the 30:11.260 --> 30:15.040 audience research division of the network, 30:15.038 --> 30:19.438 that his programs were having a huge impact on audience members, 30:19.440 --> 30:21.830 so why not use them for good. 30:21.828 --> 30:25.588 He created a soap opera with three subplots, 30:25.588 --> 30:30.348 one of which had illiterate characters in it and the other 30:30.348 --> 30:35.358 two just were pure entertainment with changes of fortune, 30:35.358 --> 30:37.668 and cliffhangers at the end of each episode, 30:37.670 --> 30:40.690 and all the stuff that goes along with a soap opera. 30:40.690 --> 30:44.240 They were on at primetime, or this program was on at 30:44.244 --> 30:48.434 primetime, it was called Ven Conmigo, and it pulled in 30:48.428 --> 30:50.658 33% of the nation's viewers. 30:50.660 --> 30:54.340 You know, melodrama is defined as the battle of good versus 30:54.342 --> 30:56.322 evil, so the evil characters were 30:56.320 --> 30:59.100 telling the illiterate characters that they were too 30:59.101 --> 31:02.321 old or too stupid to learn and they should forget about that 31:02.316 --> 31:04.166 and stick with what they had. 31:04.170 --> 31:06.750 The positive characters are saying there's a whole 31:06.749 --> 31:08.749 infrastructure for adult education, 31:08.750 --> 31:10.790 you ought to give it a try, and you can master it, 31:10.789 --> 31:12.599 you're not stupid. 31:12.598 --> 31:17.228 One by one these illiterate characters decided to go to 31:17.234 --> 31:19.964 classes, sign up and take the courses, 31:19.957 --> 31:23.657 and get their diplomas, and when they did so their 31:23.663 --> 31:28.183 lives improved and this huge audience witnessed this. 31:28.180 --> 31:32.420 Sabido then became intentional in promoting this and he ran an 31:32.423 --> 31:36.323 epilogue in which he gave addresses of registration sites 31:36.319 --> 31:37.989 for adult education. 31:37.990 --> 31:41.880 This epilogue followed the episode in which his most 31:41.882 --> 31:45.242 popular character got his diploma and it-- 31:45.240 --> 31:48.870 I don't speak Spanish and I broke down in tears when I 31:48.872 --> 31:52.302 watched this episode because it's so emotional, 31:52.298 --> 31:55.518 this man crying, holding his diploma because 31:55.518 --> 31:59.628 finally he can read all the letters he's gotten over the 31:59.634 --> 32:04.544 years from his granddaughter, and then there's this epilogue. 32:04.538 --> 32:06.908 ‘Perhaps you too would like to do what this man has 32:06.909 --> 32:09.179 done,' Sabido warned the Ministry of 32:09.183 --> 32:10.363 Public Education. 32:10.358 --> 32:13.238 He said, 'You may be aware of the show I'm doing on Televisa,' 32:13.244 --> 32:15.584 and they said, 'yes we like it very much, 32:15.584 --> 32:18.894 and it's reinforcing our public service announcements.' 32:18.890 --> 32:22.680 He said, 'Well I may generate a crowd because I'm going to run 32:22.675 --> 32:26.205 an advertisement after an upcoming episode in which I give 32:26.213 --> 32:28.763 addresses of your registration sites. 32:28.759 --> 32:30.899 Can you handle a crowd?' 32:30.900 --> 32:32.920 They said 'No problem. 32:32.920 --> 32:37.400 Last year before your program started we signed up 99,000 32:37.403 --> 32:42.373 people so we're set up to handle large numbers,' so he ran that 32:42.366 --> 32:46.606 episode and the following day, in a single day, 32:46.613 --> 32:52.033 250,000 people came in to try to register and he continued to 32:52.025 --> 32:57.075 run epilogues for the remaining weeks of that 260 episode 32:57.077 --> 32:58.247 program. 32:58.250 --> 33:03.620 By the time it was done 840,000 people had signed up for adult 33:03.623 --> 33:04.683 education. 33:09.090 --> 33:14.690 that promoted family planning, as a solution to a problem of 33:14.685 --> 33:19.355 family harmony which is a perfect subject for a melodrama; 33:19.358 --> 33:22.738 a couple arguing over how many children to have and how to stay 33:22.740 --> 33:25.900 out of poverty and so on and they ultimately adopt a method 33:25.904 --> 33:28.964 of family planning and they live happily ever after. 33:28.960 --> 33:32.130 similar impact on family planning use and it was during 33:32.134 --> 33:34.374 that program that David Poindexter, 33:34.368 --> 33:37.268 my colleague at Population Institute, 33:37.269 --> 33:42.809 discovered Sabido doing this program in 1976. 33:42.808 --> 33:45.348 He did two things, he convinced Emilio 33:49.269 --> 33:53.459 more telenovelas dealing with teenage pregnancy prevention and 33:53.461 --> 33:58.731 family planning promotion, and he took Sabido to meet 33:58.734 --> 34:01.514 Indira Gandhi in India. 34:01.509 --> 34:05.919 I had been in India in 1975 when she imposed involuntary 34:05.916 --> 34:10.396 sterilization around the country and it caused the family 34:10.403 --> 34:13.853 planning efforts in India to collapse, 34:13.849 --> 34:17.389 and she lost the next election as she should have. 34:17.389 --> 34:19.429 It was a total mess. 34:19.429 --> 34:23.159 She was very concerned about India's population problem but 34:23.163 --> 34:26.703 she didn't try the right strategy and ultimately she got 34:26.702 --> 34:29.602 re-elected and before her assassination, 34:29.599 --> 34:31.269 Sabido was sitting in front of her saying, 34:31.268 --> 34:33.888 you don't need to use coercion, you can role model this, 34:33.889 --> 34:37.179 show people the benefits and they'll decide for themselves 34:37.181 --> 34:38.281 whether to do it. 34:38.280 --> 34:42.630 They ended up being sent to the head of the Indian Television 34:42.630 --> 34:43.500 Authority. 34:43.500 --> 34:47.680 Sabido trained a writer, Manohar Shyam Joshi who did 34:47.679 --> 34:52.679 India's first home grown soap opera which had huge impacts. 34:52.679 --> 34:55.949 it's the subject of a book called, India's Information 34:55.954 --> 34:56.954 Revolution. 34:56.949 --> 35:02.189 It pulled in between 65% and 90% of anybody who had access to 35:02.193 --> 35:02.633 TV. 35:02.630 --> 35:06.280 It generated 400,000 letters from viewers to the Indian 35:06.284 --> 35:09.464 Television Authority, half of them addressed to 35:09.458 --> 35:12.768 characters by name, with advice on who they should 35:12.766 --> 35:16.286 marry and so on, but a lot of testimonials on 35:16.293 --> 35:20.613 how the program was impacting the audience members. 35:20.610 --> 35:24.980 I got very interested in this strategy and got involved in 35:24.983 --> 35:28.133 studying the second Indian soap opera, 35:28.130 --> 35:32.600 which had huge effects on its 230 million viewers with regard 35:32.601 --> 35:36.781 to attitudes about age of married women and acceptability 35:36.775 --> 35:40.275 of women in the workplace outside the home. 35:40.280 --> 35:43.740 One of the reasons this strategy has been so effective, 35:43.739 --> 35:47.449 where it's been tried around the world, is the long running 35:47.454 --> 35:49.124 nature of the program. 35:49.119 --> 35:54.249 Because you can't get somebody from say the status of a woman 35:54.253 --> 35:59.133 in Sudan to Gloria Steinem with a 60 second public service 35:59.130 --> 36:02.810 announcement or with a one hour drama, 36:02.809 --> 36:06.179 you really need time to bring about meaningful change without 36:06.184 --> 36:07.314 creating backlash. 36:07.309 --> 36:11.749 By having gradual evolution of the transitional characters and 36:11.750 --> 36:16.050 only in response to situations that the audience understands 36:16.045 --> 36:20.675 and themselves are experiencing, can you bring about meaningful 36:20.681 --> 36:21.201 change. 36:21.199 --> 36:24.509 The emotional content of melodrama is also very important 36:24.509 --> 36:28.469 for helping people remember what they learned from the programs, 36:28.469 --> 36:32.949 as well as remembering the program itself. 36:32.949 --> 36:37.199 Do you remember what you were doing on the morning of 36:37.202 --> 36:38.842 September 11,2001? 36:38.840 --> 36:44.040 Do you remember as clearly what you were doing on the morning of 36:44.041 --> 36:45.281 September 10? 36:45.280 --> 36:48.440 Now what psychologists tell us is that emotional involvement 36:48.436 --> 36:49.396 enhances memory. 36:49.400 --> 36:51.590 So, if you're highly involved emotionally, 36:51.590 --> 36:55.010 in an emotionally based melodrama and you learn lessons 36:55.012 --> 36:57.322 from it, you remember those for the rest 36:57.315 --> 36:58.035 of your life. 36:58.039 --> 37:03.209 But if it's intellectual blah, blah, blah it may last not much 37:03.210 --> 37:08.130 longer than the final exam, and I'm probably guilty of that 37:08.126 --> 37:09.056 myself. 37:09.059 --> 37:12.799 37:12.800 --> 37:15.910 There are several other theories that Sabido 37:15.907 --> 37:19.157 incorporated into a theoretical framework, 37:19.159 --> 37:22.069 both psychological and communication theories for the 37:22.065 --> 37:23.795 creation of this methodology. 37:23.800 --> 37:27.410 I'm not going to take the time now to talk about them but 37:27.413 --> 37:30.953 they're very interesting, and I recommend you download 37:30.954 --> 37:34.804 this free book from our website that has those theories spelled 37:34.797 --> 37:38.517 out as well as examples of this strategy as it's been applied 37:38.516 --> 37:39.876 around the world. 37:39.880 --> 37:42.510 37:42.510 --> 37:46.960 Thato Ratsebe, who is now working for 37:46.960 --> 37:54.130 Population Media Center--she is flying to Nairobi today. 37:54.130 --> 37:58.380 In Tanzania, in 1993, I took Everett 37:58.375 --> 38:01.405 Rodgers, who was then Associate Dean of 38:01.413 --> 38:04.543 the Annenberg School of Communications at the University 38:04.536 --> 38:08.536 of Southern California, and a research design scientist 38:08.539 --> 38:12.679 from Minneapolis named Peter Vaughn to help design an 38:12.684 --> 38:17.234 experimental evaluation to measure the effects of a Sabido 38:17.226 --> 38:19.136 style radio serial. 38:19.139 --> 38:24.299 It was the second one done in Africa and it was broadcast with 38:24.300 --> 38:25.570 this pattern. 38:25.570 --> 38:27.130 You can see the transmitting towers, 38:27.130 --> 38:32.840 the dots, and the shaded areas around them are where you could 38:32.840 --> 38:36.480 hear the signal, but we intentionally chose 38:36.483 --> 38:40.503 early primetime when the tower in Dodoma was broadcasting 38:40.498 --> 38:44.728 locally produced music with no social or health content. 38:44.730 --> 38:47.190 Twice a week, for two years, 38:47.190 --> 38:51.040 a 208 episode program, people in the shaded areas 38:51.043 --> 38:54.193 heard Twende Na Wakati, Let's Go With The Times 38:54.190 --> 38:59.210 or Let's Be Modern, while in the control area they 38:59.206 --> 39:00.886 heard music. 39:00.889 --> 39:06.859 Among the characters in this program was a negative character 39:06.864 --> 39:08.364 named Mkwaju. 39:08.360 --> 39:12.230 He was an alcoholic truck driver with a girlfriend at 39:12.226 --> 39:15.866 every truck stop and a subservient wife named Tunu 39:15.871 --> 39:17.361 waiting at home. 39:17.360 --> 39:21.610 He was, in Tanzanian society, every man's ideal. 39:21.610 --> 39:25.110 This guy was a sexual athlete, he was having a wonderful time, 39:25.110 --> 39:31.070 he had girlfriends everywhere draping over him at every truck 39:31.074 --> 39:33.784 stop, and so it attracted a huge male 39:33.780 --> 39:35.850 following, more men than women in this 39:35.847 --> 39:39.187 audience, but overall 58% of the adult 39:39.190 --> 39:41.390 population listening. 39:41.389 --> 39:45.009 Much to Mkwaju's surprise, he found he was married to a 39:45.005 --> 39:46.675 transitional character. 39:46.679 --> 39:51.169 And Tunu, perhaps having read some of the thousands of letters 39:51.170 --> 39:55.590 addressed to her coming into radio Tanzania advising her that 39:55.585 --> 39:59.615 her husband was cheating on her, stood up to him when he was 39:59.623 --> 40:02.593 home on one of his visits and told him she had heard about the 40:02.592 --> 40:03.422 AIDS epidemic. 40:03.420 --> 40:06.810 She knew what he was up to on the road and he was going to 40:06.806 --> 40:09.656 have to use condoms, and she made that happen. 40:09.659 --> 40:13.519 She eventually took a job and ultimately she founded her own 40:13.516 --> 40:17.566 business and became a role model for female entrepreneurship in 40:17.570 --> 40:18.420 Tanzania. 40:18.420 --> 40:24.280 Now if you're a scriptwriter you probably figured out Mkwaju 40:24.280 --> 40:27.270 becomes sick, for some time the audience 40:27.268 --> 40:29.258 doesn't know what has affected him, 40:29.260 --> 40:34.720 but they find out he now has AIDS and Tunu throws him out, 40:34.719 --> 40:39.539 but ultimately takes him back and cares for him in a separate 40:39.541 --> 40:41.471 bedroom until he dies. 40:41.469 --> 40:46.999 The audience learned a few lessons out of this. 40:47.000 --> 40:51.670 We did a nationwide, random sample survey of 2,750 40:51.668 --> 40:55.388 people annually, starting with a baseline just 40:55.393 --> 40:59.623 before going on the air and then repeated annually for four years 40:59.615 --> 41:03.985 1993, 1994,1995, 1996 and 1997. 41:03.989 --> 41:08.169 From 1993 to 1995 this was the pattern of broadcasting. 41:08.170 --> 41:12.130 From 1995 to 1997 we broadcast the program in Dodoma, 41:12.130 --> 41:14.880 so we were able to measure in broadcast areas and 41:14.882 --> 41:18.092 non-broadcast areas what was going on with regard to self 41:18.092 --> 41:21.592 reported knowledge, attitudes and behavior. 41:21.590 --> 41:25.360 I also got the Ministry of Health to ask new family 41:25.356 --> 41:29.346 planning adopters why they had come to the clinics. 41:29.349 --> 41:36.219 Now in the survey at the end of year two, 41:36.219 --> 41:38.629 58% of the adult population listening, 41:38.630 --> 41:42.820 82% of the listeners said the program had caused them to 41:42.818 --> 41:46.398 change their behavior to avoid HIV infection. 41:46.400 --> 41:50.710 We were astounded by how high an impact it was. 41:50.710 --> 41:55.010 The most common change people said they had made was reduction 41:55.005 --> 41:57.465 in the number of sexual partners. 41:57.469 --> 42:02.239 We didn't have the budget to hire enough private detectives 42:02.240 --> 42:05.660 to verify those claims, but we got the condom 42:05.659 --> 42:09.009 distribution data from the National AIDS Control Program 42:09.012 --> 42:12.912 broken down by district, and in the districts that made 42:12.905 --> 42:15.855 up the control area, where they got all the national 42:15.855 --> 42:18.695 programs about AIDS, except for this soap opera, 42:18.702 --> 42:22.492 there was a 16% increase in condom and distribution, 42:22.489 --> 42:26.689 while in the broadcast areas there was 153% increase in 42:26.688 --> 42:28.398 condom distribution. 42:28.400 --> 42:32.390 Now when we took all of the reported behavior changes across 42:32.393 --> 42:36.593 the country and extrapolated it to wherever you could hear this 42:36.590 --> 42:39.730 program, the cost per person who changed 42:39.726 --> 42:43.146 behavior to avoid HIV infection was $0.08 U.S. 42:43.150 --> 42:48.550 On family planning we saw a 10% increase in the number of family 42:48.550 --> 42:53.950 planning adopters in the initial broadcast areas and zero change 42:53.951 --> 42:58.581 in the control area around the Dodoma transmitter. 42:58.579 --> 43:03.209 When we broadcast the program in Dodoma, the following two 43:03.208 --> 43:07.918 years we had a 16% increase in family planning adoption. 43:07.920 --> 43:11.130 And in both areas, at the times the broadcasts 43:11.132 --> 43:15.322 were on the air in those areas, 41% of the new adopters named 43:15.320 --> 43:17.930 the program as their reason for coming in. 43:17.929 --> 43:22.089 The next most impactful intervention was named by 11%, 43:22.090 --> 43:26.490 so a 4:1 ratio of effects between this soap opera and the 43:26.485 --> 43:29.385 next most impactful intervention. 43:29.389 --> 43:32.089 Now it was right after seeing this data that I started 43:32.092 --> 43:34.542 Population Media Center and I took Rose Haji, 43:34.539 --> 43:37.029 who produced the Tanzanian program, 43:37.030 --> 43:40.820 Tom Kazungu who was the first African trained by Sabido and 43:40.824 --> 43:43.184 the first radio person to use it, 43:43.179 --> 43:45.669 and Sabido himself to Ethiopia. 43:45.670 --> 43:49.540 We trained a team of writers to produce two programs, 43:49.539 --> 43:53.199 one in Amharic, the national language which was 43:53.199 --> 43:58.369 257 episodes long and the second one 140 episodes in Oromiffa, 43:58.369 --> 44:01.529 the second most common language, and those were on the 44:01.525 --> 44:04.855 air for two and a half years starting in June of 2002. 44:04.860 --> 44:09.060 The Amharic program was listened to by 47% of men, 44:09.063 --> 44:10.353 45% of women. 44:10.349 --> 44:15.479 The Oromiffa program pulled in another 25% of the population, 44:15.478 --> 44:20.088 so we had well over 40 million people listening to this 44:20.094 --> 44:21.124 program. 44:21.119 --> 44:24.479 It became the subject of daily conversations, 44:24.476 --> 44:27.066 as well as thousands of letters; 44:27.070 --> 44:30.570 15,000 poured into our office in Addis Ababa during the time 44:30.565 --> 44:32.515 these programs were on the air. 44:32.518 --> 44:36.588 Most of them in response to the Amharic language program which 44:36.590 --> 44:38.260 had a better time slot. 44:38.260 --> 44:43.340 One of those letters was from a woman who said she was so happy 44:43.344 --> 44:48.514 we had addressed the issue of marriage by abduction because, 44:48.510 --> 44:51.770 you may not know this, but in rural Ethiopia the 44:51.768 --> 44:55.508 status of women is so low that it's considered socially 44:55.514 --> 44:59.334 acceptable for a man to grab a girl off the street. 44:59.329 --> 45:01.889 And I mean a school girl, take her home and rape her, 45:01.889 --> 45:06.339 and then she's considered to be his wife and she's stuck with 45:06.335 --> 45:09.295 her abductor for the rest of her life. 45:09.300 --> 45:11.630 And parent's won't take the daughters back because they're 45:11.625 --> 45:13.865 damaged goods and it would bring shame on the family. 45:13.869 --> 45:16.949 So they leave the girls with these abductors. 45:16.949 --> 45:20.659 Now this is starting to change and courts are starting to allow 45:20.661 --> 45:22.101 these women to escape. 45:22.099 --> 45:25.459 We dealt with this in this very popular program and this letter 45:25.456 --> 45:27.986 said, 'Thank you so much for dealing 45:27.994 --> 45:32.284 with the issue of marriage by abduction through your character 45:32.277 --> 45:32.977 Wubahn. 45:32.980 --> 45:36.450 Our own daughter was abducted on her way to school at age 14 45:36.454 --> 45:40.054 and ended up married as a result and we've been afraid to send 45:40.047 --> 45:43.577 our 12 year old girls to school for fear the same thing would 45:43.581 --> 45:44.821 happen to them. 45:44.820 --> 45:47.920 When your program played and dealt with this issue the entire 45:47.920 --> 45:49.780 village which had listened to it, 45:49.780 --> 45:52.340 came together, and we agreed to enforce the 45:52.338 --> 45:55.568 law against marriage by abduction and it's now safe to 45:55.570 --> 45:58.130 send our 12 year old girls to school.' 45:58.130 --> 46:02.110 This is the kind of qualitative information we got from those 46:02.106 --> 46:02.766 letters. 46:02.768 --> 46:06.348 We also had listening groups that filled out diaries after 46:06.351 --> 46:10.181 each episode and periodic focus group discussions for feedback 46:10.182 --> 46:13.812 to the writers, and monitoring through 14,400 46:13.806 --> 46:18.946 exit interviews at reproductive health clinics to ask people why 46:18.949 --> 46:21.779 they had come, and a baseline and 46:21.780 --> 46:25.940 post-broadcast quantitative survey across the country. 46:25.940 --> 46:29.630 At the 48 clinics where those 14,000 exit interviews were 46:29.630 --> 46:32.610 carried out, 63% of the new reproductive 46:32.612 --> 46:36.822 health clients were listening to the program or one of the 46:36.820 --> 46:40.150 programs, and over a fourth of the new 46:40.148 --> 46:44.118 clients cited one of the programs as the primary 46:44.123 --> 46:47.003 motivator for seeking services. 46:47.000 --> 46:51.260 Radio Ethiopia has 100% public service broadcasting and a lot 46:51.264 --> 46:54.964 of programs dealing with AIDS and family planning. 46:54.960 --> 46:58.730 Of all the people who named Radio Ethiopia or other radio 46:58.731 --> 47:01.911 programs, 96% named one of our programs, 47:01.911 --> 47:06.261 4% named any of the other programs on the radio as their 47:06.262 --> 47:08.162 source of motivation. 47:08.159 --> 47:13.579 This shows increase in use of family planning from baseline to 47:13.576 --> 47:17.636 non-listeners to listeners, the increase among the 47:17.637 --> 47:21.577 listeners was more than double the increase among non-listeners 47:21.577 --> 47:24.117 and highly statistically significant. 47:24.119 --> 47:27.759 Some of the non-listeners were clearly motivated through 47:27.764 --> 47:29.824 conversations with listeners. 47:29.820 --> 47:34.330 Now this is a decrease in not knowing how to determine ones 47:34.333 --> 47:38.613 HIV status and this is actual reporting of going for HIV 47:38.614 --> 47:43.444 testing: male listeners sought HIV tests at four times the rate 47:43.438 --> 47:47.258 of non-listeners; female listeners sought tests 47:47.255 --> 47:50.185 at three times the rate of non-listeners. 47:50.190 --> 47:54.640 Now we've done similar work in these countries. 47:54.639 --> 47:58.169 In Vietnam we're currently on the air with a program dealing 47:58.173 --> 48:00.573 with HIV/Aids on The Voice of Vietnam. 48:00.570 --> 48:04.660 In West Africa we did a program dealing with child slavery. 48:04.659 --> 48:07.989 It was actually something that was brought about through a 48:07.994 --> 48:10.864 request by Ben & Jerry's and funding from them 48:10.862 --> 48:14.552 to get started and then funding from the U.S. Government. 48:14.550 --> 48:19.090 We measured a quintupling of awareness among listeners of the 48:19.090 --> 48:22.650 problem of child trafficking/child slavery and a 48:22.646 --> 48:27.486 doubling of interventions by listeners to stop the practice. 48:27.489 --> 48:31.229 We've just gone on the air in Mali with a program promoting 48:31.228 --> 48:32.388 family planning. 48:32.389 --> 48:35.739 We've done two programs in Nigeria, 48:35.739 --> 48:40.929 the first one was at the request of the Rotarian Action 48:40.927 --> 48:46.117 Group on Population and Development that was setting up 48:46.115 --> 48:51.205 a surgery to offer repair for women who have obstetric 48:51.208 --> 48:54.488 fistula, something that results from the 48:54.489 --> 48:58.049 daughter's in northern Nigeria being married off at age 9 and 48:58.050 --> 49:01.650 getting pregnant at age 12, and trying to deliver with an 49:01.652 --> 49:04.452 immature pelvis and having obstructed labor, 49:04.449 --> 49:09.489 and ending up somewhat torn to shreds and incontinent. 49:09.489 --> 49:12.609 These girls married to older men in polygamous marriages 49:12.605 --> 49:16.395 generally then get thrown out on the street and live as beggars, 49:16.400 --> 49:19.420 and the Rotary Clubs of northern Nigeria set up a 49:19.422 --> 49:22.072 surgical center to repair them because, 49:22.070 --> 49:26.410 for $300, these women can be returned to a normal life. 49:26.409 --> 49:31.129 If they are unrepaired, they're incontinent and they 49:31.130 --> 49:34.740 live on the streets, and they smell bad, 49:34.739 --> 49:37.609 and they're social pariahs. 49:37.610 --> 49:42.220 In fact, there are 800,000 women in Nigeria with unrepaired 49:42.215 --> 49:43.085 fistulas. 49:43.090 --> 49:47.690 We were able to measure, by promoting family planning, 49:47.690 --> 49:50.750 and delaying marriage and childbearing to adulthood, 49:50.750 --> 49:53.920 a third of the women coming to family planning clinics named 49:53.916 --> 49:56.166 our program as their reason for coming, 49:56.170 --> 50:00.150 and 54% of the women coming for surgical repair named the 50:00.148 --> 50:03.558 program as the reason they were at the clinic. 50:03.559 --> 50:07.029 The second program, that's on the air currently, 50:07.030 --> 50:11.240 is being named by 67% of family planning adopters as their 50:11.240 --> 50:13.900 motivation for seeking services. 50:13.900 --> 50:18.470 In Rwanda, currently 57% of family planning clients and 59% 50:18.472 --> 50:23.362 of HIV testing clients name our program as their motivation for 50:23.358 --> 50:25.328 coming to the clinic. 50:25.329 --> 50:30.899 We're also using the program to promote preservation of mountain 50:30.896 --> 50:33.986 gorilla habitat, and more generally, 50:33.989 --> 50:36.729 wilderness areas in Rwanda. 50:36.730 --> 50:42.340 In Sudan, the program addressed the issue of female genital 50:42.342 --> 50:43.602 mutilation. 50:43.599 --> 50:49.179 Opposition to FGM in Sudan at the time that program was on the 50:49.179 --> 50:54.029 air went from 28% to 65% by the end of the program. 50:54.030 --> 50:58.270 In Niger we dealt with child trafficking also and in Senegal 50:58.266 --> 51:02.566 we've just gone on the air with two programs in two different 51:02.574 --> 51:03.584 languages. 51:03.579 --> 51:04.379 In the U.S. 51:04.380 --> 51:07.660 we're working with the Hollywood community, 51:07.659 --> 51:10.459 in partnership with the Academy of Television Arts & 51:10.460 --> 51:13.060 Sciences and the Screenwriter's Guild of America. 51:13.059 --> 51:17.879 We've done two briefings for members of the Screenwriter's 51:17.878 --> 51:20.508 Guild, the most recent one on climate, 51:20.507 --> 51:23.297 population, health and security issues, 51:23.304 --> 51:27.414 we held in Hollywood in November and the one before that 51:27.411 --> 51:31.821 about a year and a half ago at Emory School of Public Health 51:31.815 --> 51:35.545 looking at the role of entertainment television and 51:35.547 --> 51:38.457 addressing public health issues. 51:38.460 --> 51:42.000 These are countries in which we are developing projects. 51:42.000 --> 51:45.100 I was in Papua, New Guinea and Uganda in the 51:45.097 --> 51:48.987 development of new projects in the last two months, 51:48.989 --> 51:52.999 but we have projects in various stages of development in each of 51:53.003 --> 51:54.153 these countries. 51:54.150 --> 52:00.470 Now how are we on time? 52:00.469 --> 52:02.959 Why don't I take just a few minutes and show you, 52:02.960 --> 52:09.630 if I can make this work, a clip from a documentary done 52:09.634 --> 52:14.954 by a CNN Vice President for Environment, 52:14.949 --> 52:19.239 no longer with CNN but she was head of Environment for CNN and 52:19.242 --> 52:20.792 Turner Broadcasting. 52:20.789 --> 52:28.059 A woman named Barbara Pile who did a documentary on this idea 52:28.056 --> 52:35.196 of social content soap operas in the Philippines where Cecil 52:35.204 --> 52:38.964 Alvarez produced a program. 52:38.960 --> 52:42.300 I'm not sure if I'm going to be able to put this on full screen 52:42.297 --> 52:43.157 but let's see. 52:43.159 --> 53:56.459 53:56.460 --> 53:59.900 This is a documentary about this Philippine program 53:59.898 --> 54:03.608 introduced by Jane Fonda and then the documentary is by 54:03.610 --> 54:04.780 Barbara Pile. 54:04.780 --> 54:07.570 The storyline is about two sisters, 54:07.570 --> 54:12.860 one of whom elopes at I think the age of 16 and has a baby 54:12.864 --> 54:18.724 every year trying to please her husband who wants a son and it's 54:18.719 --> 57:42.159 a tragedy <