WEBVTT

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Prof: As you undoubtedly
have noticed,

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most of the course has been--I
sort of have a global focus and

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mostly focused on foreign
countries with a fair amount on

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Europe and very little actually
on America.

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Now we've come to the part of
the course where we're going to

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discuss social issues and those
are very country dependent.

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What's a hot social issue
depends on the cultural context

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and so we're going to use that
to do American issues.

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With respect to reproduction,
one of the main--there are a

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couple of main issues.

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One, which is not quite as hot
as it was a decade ago,

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but it's teen sex and teen
pregnancy.

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Both as an ethical,
moral issue and as a practical

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economic issue about the
children of teens.

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How are they going to get
supported and what does it do to

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poverty of the mother,
and you have some really good

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readings on those.

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The other one--the other topic
which will come next after this

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is abortion;
we're going to spend two

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lectures on that.

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There's going to be a nice long
discussion of that because that

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is really the hot topic.

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Today is teen sexuality and
teen pregnancy.

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Just to start with some data
and keep it local,

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this is from The Hartford
Courant, last November

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19,2008.

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There's a national youth risk
behavior survey that monitors

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health risk among high school
kids,

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9^(th) through 12^(th) graders
all over the United States.

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In Connecticut 42.4% of the
kids have had sexual intercourse

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of high school kids and it says
31.8% are sexually active.

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I don't know exactly what
active means so I guess they're

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continuing.

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There's a few percent that
didn't like it or something,

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but there's quite a lot of both
onetime early sexuality and than

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a continuing bout of it.

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As part of the problem,
of those that have had sex,

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or are sexually active,
37.3% reported that they did

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not use any kind of protection
at the last act of intercourse

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and therefore they're at great
risk for pregnancy.

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That's just real sexual
intercourse, I guess as Bill

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Clinton defines it.

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When you go to oral sex you get
another set of numbers,

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and oral sex as you may,
or may not, know has become the

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big thing in America.

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I'm sure that--we don't really
know the causes of it,

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I'm not aware of any real
academic literature on that,

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but the fear of AIDS there's a
perception,

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which is true,
that oral sex is less likely

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to--
not zero likely,

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but less likely to transmit
AIDS.

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And also because,
maybe--I don't know how much

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you're aware of this,
but during the Bill Clinton

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trials,
a very conservative prosecutor

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Kenneth Star,
was talking about oral sex all

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the time and everybody in
America learned about it and he

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sort of popularized it.

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As is often the case,
people that want to push an

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idea in one direction,
end up having pushed it in

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exactly the opposite direction.

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Oral sex is alive and well in
New Haven.

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I sometimes teach teachers how
to talk in their classes about

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the kind of population issues,
the kind of issues we talk

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about in this class,
and they give me a lot of

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information.

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One day I'm talking to these
teachers and they say,

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'oh, something interesting has
happened in the school.'

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In one of the local high
schools, a freshman girl,

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was caught in the stairwell was
providing oral sex for a line of

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boys.

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They were standing there
waiting, a few of them with

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their pants down,
and this girl was doing them

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one after the other.

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This is a freshman in the local
high school.

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The New Haven Register
had a headline,

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"Teens Turn To Oral
Sex," 10^(th) grade

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students so that's high school
sophomores,

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40% of the boys and girls
reported that they had engaged

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in oral sex in the last year,
and about 25% that they had

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three or more different oral sex
partners in the previous year,

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so sex among teenagers is alive
and well,

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as they say.

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Here's your anecdote for the
day.

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A teenager--so Hartford,
as you know,

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is a very bad--there are a lot
of poor people in Hartford,

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let's just put it that way.

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Planned Parenthood has set up a
clinic in the northeast part of

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Hartford, a very poor part of
Hartford, and this is from one

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of the counselors there.

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A teenager, a teenage girl,
comes into the Planned

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Parenthood clinic there and
says,

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'I'm pregnant,' and the
counselor says,

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'oh how do you know that?'

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She says, 'I not only know
that, I know exactly when I got

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pregnant.'

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'Oh?'

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'Well I know that if you
only--if your boyfriend comes

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only once, you can't get
pregnant."

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But, on such and such a day,
and she named the date,

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"we did it twice and I
allowed him to come the second

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time and that's when I got
pregnant,

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I know that's when I got
pregnant."

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Because she was of the belief
that one time can't do it,

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but two times will.

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Well they took the test and
indeed she -- yes?

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Student:
>

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Prof: Indeed she took
the test and indeed she was

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pregnant but she had been
pregnant like two months before

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she thought she was.

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She had it completely wrong.

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Student:  My mother
worked in the National Health

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Service Corps in the 1970s--
Prof: Shout.

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Student:  My mother
worked in the National Health

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Service Corp.

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in the 1970s in rural Colorado
and she had a 12-year-old come

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in who was in labor and she
didn't know that she was

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pregnant at the time.

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Prof: Did not?

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Yeah so that's--I don't know
that you heard all that;

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her mother worked in Colorado
and a 12-year-old came in,

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in labor, and she didn't even
know she was pregnant.

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That's a story,
Colorado, Hartford,

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it's all around.

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In 1999, which was sort of the
peak of this concern about

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teenage pregnancy,
450 Hartford teenagers gave

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birth.

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How many completed high school?

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332 girls graduated from
Hartford City schools in that

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same year.

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So, one-third more girls became
mothers than graduated from high

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school.

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You can imagine this was
considered a serious problem.

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Now what is this--the
social--the political,

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the social, the school response
to this problem?

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Well they're kind of hamstrung.

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A nurse practitioner at a
Hartford school clinic said that

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she's allowed to test and treat
students for sexually

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transmitted diseases,
but she can do nothing about

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the possibility of pregnancy.

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She may not prescribe birth
control or even distribute

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condoms in the school.

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There was a proposal in the
city council to allow the

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schools to distribute condoms,
and it was roundly turned down.

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What is--why is--what is the
political concern here.

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The political concern is what
you can see here,

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that people who are opposed to
providing contraception for

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teenagers,
including politicians,

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this is an advocacy ad,
this is not an academic sort of

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thing.

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This is actually true,
that people believe that even

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discussing sex will tend to
encourage it,

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and certainly handing out birth
control will facilitate

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teenagers having sex.

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This is the political;
this is the opinion,

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the kind of attitude that is
opposed to it and why the

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Hartford school system and many
other school systems can't

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provide contraception.

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Of course this gets discussed a
lot and it's a topic of

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discussion not only for the
parents but for the teenagers,

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and one nice quote from Maritza
Lopez,

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who was a Hartford public
school high school junior,

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and she was already a mother.

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She dismissed this idea saying,
"All the girls I know are

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sexually active.

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Most started in the 6^(th) or
7^(th) grade,

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they're going to do it no
matter what."

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Now I experienced this same
kind of attitude.

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I was again teaching the
teachers, sort of teacher

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This was Connecticut teachers
from all over the state.

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Before I started,
I said, look,

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we're going to discuss some
pretty heavy stuff here

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involving sex and everything,
and I don't know how much of

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this you can talk to your kids
about.

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They roared with laughter!

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What they all told me was
"all of our kids"--

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they exaggerated,
I'm sure it wasn't all,

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but the way they expressed it
was 'all of our kids were into

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sex already'.

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I can say anything that I want,
there's nothing that they're

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going to be shocked by.

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Some schools can do a decent--a
proper sex education;

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some schools are not allowed to
do proper sex education.

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A problem, even in the schools
where it's allowed,

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is often the choice of
teachers.

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It can be the Health Ed.

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teacher or someone who may be a
jock, that has said,

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okay it's your job to teach sex
education.

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It's rarely that a teacher gets
to volunteer,

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that they survey all the
teachers and say this is a tough

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job, who wants to do it?

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No, somebody gets assigned to
do that.

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Then, you get the--very often,
the teacher herself may not

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approve of sex education for the
children.

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She may think it's not a proper
topic for a school for whatever

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grade she's supposed to teach it
in.

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She may--and I say she,
it may be she or he,

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the teacher may be
uncomfortable talking about sex,

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may not be well-educated on how
to handle questions about sex or

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about contraception,
may also, very likely now,

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be afraid of legal
complications or disciplinary

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actions from the school if they
handle it wrong and they say the

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wrong thing,
and parents start objecting,

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which certainly happens,
and it happens in Connecticut

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and I've been involved in some
of that stuff.

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Parents coming in and screaming
and yelling at him or

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threatening to sue the teacher,
it--happens.

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In any case,
most sex education teachers,

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as far as one has data,
which is very skinny,

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the teaching of this subject is
just not coming from a person's

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guts.

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They're fulfilling a curriculum
assignment,

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it's something that they are
assigned to do,

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and if, in something of this
nature,

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the teacher is not really--this
is not coming from her soul,

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then its guarantee to be an
unsuccessful program.

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We've seen things like this
before.

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Remember when we talked about
the family planning program in

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Pakistan and Bangladesh.

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They started with the Daiyis
when it was one country,

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when it was Pakistan,
and the Daiyis were the

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traditional birth attendants who
themselves were not using

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contraception,
didn't believe in it,

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didn't know anything about it,
and could make more money

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doing--attending births.

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The program was a complete
failure until they changed and

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started hiring women who
themselves were using

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contraception,
some were high status and

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really approved of it,
and then the program became a

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great success.

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You have to have consistency.

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If you make a law,
or try to have a policy,

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the people that are supposed to
carry out the policy must want

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to do that.

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If they don't really want to do
that, whatever your policy is,

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in any area of activity,
it's not going to work.

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Now this doesn't mean that it's
necessarily terribly difficult

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to be effective,
the sex education.

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Planned Parenthood,
for instance,

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I used them as an example
because I know about them.

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They do a lot of sex education
for the schools,

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and often when the school is
uncomfortable doing it or

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doesn't have anybody that they
think wants to do it,

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or is qualified to do it,
they will call in Planned

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Parenthood or one of a number of
other kinds of organizations.

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Planned Parenthood has the
flexibility to hire people;

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they don't have licensing and
so forth requirements--who are

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really committed to this kind of
thing.

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They did what they call a
seminar for high school

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students,
again in Connecticut here,

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I think it was also Hartford
and they got a letter back from

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one of the students:
"Hello,

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my name is Kelly and I was in
your seminar.

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I would like to thank you for
making me aware of some of the

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consequences of sex.

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Because of your seminar I got
the courage to ask my mother for

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birth control before something
happened that I would regret for

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the rest of my life.

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I also got the courage to ask
my boyfriend to use a condom

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instead of nothing.

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Thank you so much,
you've really honestly changed

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my life.

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I guess when the information
doesn't come from the teacher it

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actually hits home.

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Thank you, Kelly."

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Now this is a teenager's letter
and its one anecdote,

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so you can't make an awful lot
out of it, but you have to think

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a little bit.

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She says, "making me aware
of some of the consequences of

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sex."

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Well, do you think she really
didn't know you could get

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pregnant from sex,
that you can get diseases?

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No, she knew that,
that she had misidentified what

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was going on.

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I doubt--I'd be flabbergasted
if she didn't know that by the

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time she was in high school.

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What do you think?

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You have a more recent
experience in high school;

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don't all the kids know that
you get pregnant from sex?

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Yes, and all know that you can
get a disease--an STD from sex?

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Not so sure,
all right maybe Kelly

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was--maybe I'm wrong and Kelly
was right, I don't know.

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The thing is,
it's all in the way it's

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presented.

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If it's presented by someone
that really cares about it and

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wants to do it,
there's just a whole different

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atmosphere and kids minds open
up to this kind of thing.

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Anyway, America is generally in
a mess with respect to sex

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education and sex in general.

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It's quite different than the
European countries.

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So, here is a typical graph
that is presented frequently.

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This shows the number of
children born to teenagers,

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this is again at the peak of
the problem,

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and here's France,
here's Germany,

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here's Japan,
here's Great Britain,

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and, Whooops,
here's the United States.

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Student:  Is there a
graph adjusted for population

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sizes?

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Prof: Perfect,
that was the next question and

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I'm glad one of you caught it
right away.

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This is again--usually
presented like this,

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it's an advocacy thing.

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It wants to scare you;
it wants to show you how much

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worse the United States is than
everybody else.

15:49.168 --> 15:52.438
As we just got told,
the United States has a much

15:52.437 --> 15:55.567
larger population then any of
these places,

15:55.570 --> 15:58.600
so this is not really a
legitimate way of presenting the

15:58.602 --> 15:58.992
data.

15:58.990 --> 16:04.010
Of course, your dutiful teacher
redid it and here is when you

16:04.009 --> 16:09.109
divide out by population and you
see it's not as severe as the

16:09.111 --> 16:12.951
illegitimate graph,
but--the United States is still

16:12.953 --> 16:15.313
more than twice,
has more than twice the

16:15.313 --> 16:18.083
percentage problem;
anyways it's still serious.

16:18.080 --> 16:23.900
In fact, they didn't have to
use the improper data they could

16:23.897 --> 16:29.517
have used data like this and
still the problem becomes very

16:29.519 --> 16:30.489
clear.

16:30.490 --> 16:34.800
From a lot of studies of these
kinds of things,

16:34.798 --> 16:39.298
it turns out countries that
have a very liberal attitude

16:39.297 --> 16:43.547
toward sexuality have the lowest
teen birthrates,

16:43.549 --> 16:47.889
teen pregnancy rates.

16:47.889 --> 16:50.519
A place like the Netherlands,
probably in the west,

16:50.519 --> 16:53.489
either Denmark,
or Sweden, or Netherlands is

16:53.490 --> 16:57.840
probably the most liberal and in
those countries it's considered

16:57.841 --> 17:01.431
a perfectly normal part of
teenage experience and the

17:01.434 --> 17:04.964
teenagers are expected and
encouraged to bring their

17:04.958 --> 17:09.378
girlfriend or boyfriend home and
sleep in the same room.

17:09.380 --> 17:12.100
That may be starting to happen
in America--how many of your

17:12.102 --> 17:13.372
parents would allow that?

17:13.368 --> 17:19.538
A few all right we're--she's
married.

17:19.539 --> 17:24.629


17:24.630 --> 17:25.350
The U.S.

17:25.351 --> 17:30.761
rate is 54 per 1,000 teens,
about one out of 20 each year,

17:30.759 --> 17:32.599
and in the Netherlands the
figure is 7,

17:32.598 --> 17:37.368
so eight times lower,
and it's a huge difference

17:37.366 --> 17:41.016
depending on the country
attitude.

17:41.019 --> 17:46.279
In academical discussions,
these things get terribly mixed

17:46.278 --> 17:46.738
up.

17:46.740 --> 17:50.940
There is a bunch of issues
which usually people don't

17:50.938 --> 17:52.148
separate out.

17:52.150 --> 17:55.060
One is teen pregnancy and
that's very different than

17:55.059 --> 17:58.479
teen--can be different than teen
childbearing because not all

17:58.484 --> 18:00.544
those pregnancies come to birth.

18:00.538 --> 18:02.208
There's teen sex,
then you have sex,

18:02.211 --> 18:04.601
you might get pregnant,
and if you get pregnant you

18:04.601 --> 18:06.371
might actually have a live
birth.

18:06.368 --> 18:09.898
So there's three different
steps, and when you're looking

18:09.898 --> 18:12.608
at statistics you have to
separate those.

18:12.608 --> 18:17.178
Another is the whole idea of
out-of-wedlock births,

18:17.176 --> 18:21.376
births born to mothers that are
not married.

18:21.380 --> 18:26.200
You can combine all
pregnancies, you combine those

18:26.202 --> 18:30.042
two, out-of-wedlock teen
pregnancies.

18:30.038 --> 18:33.428
When you read discussions of
this, try to figure out what

18:33.429 --> 18:36.879
they're talking--which of these
problems they're about.

18:36.880 --> 18:40.450
It's often not made very clear,
but it's very important to keep

18:40.452 --> 18:41.262
it straight.

18:41.259 --> 18:47.689
I'll try to talk about these
different things and make it

18:47.691 --> 18:48.611
clear.

18:48.608 --> 18:53.298
When you discuss this--one
issue is--what do the statistics

18:53.304 --> 18:57.674
you're looking at refer to,
and I hope I've always been

18:57.674 --> 18:59.784
clear in these slides.

18:59.779 --> 19:04.709
The other, when you go across
nationally, like to other

19:04.711 --> 19:10.101
countries, and it's not always
clear what marriage means.

19:10.098 --> 19:14.748
In other cultures--in the West
in general and the United States

19:14.746 --> 19:18.206
in particular,
a marriage is a legal statement

19:18.211 --> 19:21.181
and it's an all or nothing sort
of thing.

19:21.180 --> 19:23.680
You either have a marriage
certificate and you are married,

19:23.676 --> 19:25.996
or you don't have a marriage
certificate and you're not

19:26.002 --> 19:26.522
married.

19:26.519 --> 19:28.559
And if you have one,
and you get divorced,

19:28.560 --> 19:31.100
then you--in terms of you don't
have one anymore.

19:31.099 --> 19:32.779
It's an on or off kind of thing.

19:32.779 --> 19:36.499
Everyone really knows whether
they are married or they are not

19:36.500 --> 19:37.110
married.

19:37.108 --> 19:40.318
In other cultures,
marriage is quite variable,

19:40.323 --> 19:43.753
it's a stage thing,
and it may have various steps

19:43.750 --> 19:45.180
in the marriage.

19:45.180 --> 19:48.580
For instance,
in Nigeria among the Fulani,

19:48.579 --> 19:52.479
at circumcision,
a boy who's age seven to ten at

19:52.479 --> 19:56.709
this time, is then betrothed to
an infant girl.

19:56.710 --> 20:00.670
Sometimes betrothed is
translated as married to.

20:00.670 --> 20:05.010
When the future husband--But
they don't live together.

20:05.009 --> 20:09.599
When the future husband's
father learns from the girl's

20:09.604 --> 20:12.164
parents,
who are living separately,

20:12.162 --> 20:15.722
that she has begun menstruation
and then is believed to be

20:15.717 --> 20:18.697
capable of childbirth,
the girl then moves into her

20:18.703 --> 20:22.093
husband's--
her future husband's compound.

20:22.088 --> 20:25.328
So they're still betrothed,
she's now menstruating,

20:25.328 --> 20:27.938
so she moves in with the
husband, and it's still the

20:27.939 --> 20:31.109
future husband and she's treated
as a daughter of the husband's

20:31.111 --> 20:35.191
father's household,
she's treated like a sister of

20:35.192 --> 20:36.052
the boy.

20:36.048 --> 20:39.908
The boy and girl sleep
together, they have sex in the

20:39.914 --> 20:42.044
open,
and the boy is usually in this

20:42.038 --> 20:44.298
culture,
it's a herding culture,

20:44.303 --> 20:48.353
they sleep outside near the
corral to guard the cattle

20:48.345 --> 20:52.535
against raiders and wolves and
whatever kind of predator

20:52.538 --> 20:54.748
animals they have there.

20:54.750 --> 20:57.490
That's all done,
of course, very openly.

20:57.490 --> 21:01.810
They still have the status of
an unmarried youth and a maiden,

21:01.807 --> 21:05.697
where she is not a virgin
anymore but she's a maiden.

21:05.700 --> 21:10.160
When the girl becomes pregnant,
she moves back to her father's

21:10.161 --> 21:14.481
household and she stays there
for three wet seasons and they

21:14.476 --> 21:17.616
have wet and dry seasons there,
so it's a

21:17.619 --> 21:21.189
geological--climatological thing
and that takes two to two and a

21:21.191 --> 21:23.971
half years depending on when
they've started,

21:23.970 --> 21:27.950
and then she returns to the boy
and only then are they

21:27.952 --> 21:29.532
considered married.

21:29.528 --> 21:32.228
There are so many different
steps and then they are

21:32.233 --> 21:33.373
officially married.

21:33.369 --> 21:36.289


21:36.288 --> 21:39.898
Using our definition of
marriage applied to the Fulani,

21:39.900 --> 21:43.490
since they always have that
first child and until it's two

21:43.492 --> 21:45.932
or three,
when they're not married,

21:45.925 --> 21:49.945
basically all Fulani first
births are illegitimate births,

21:49.950 --> 21:53.180
by our accounting of it.

21:53.180 --> 21:57.440
Among the Dogon people,
which is Mali and Burkina Faso,

21:57.440 --> 22:00.380
a girl doesn't move into her
spouse's home until the birth of

22:00.377 --> 22:02.187
the second or even the third
child.

22:02.190 --> 22:06.220


22:06.220 --> 22:08.830
Speaking of that,
in Sweden, I lived in Sweden

22:08.829 --> 22:11.499
and we have a guest whose son is
in Sweden,

22:11.500 --> 22:14.490
when I was there,
the tradition was building up

22:14.491 --> 22:18.201
that you get married on the
birth of your second child.

22:18.200 --> 22:21.250
Is that still happening or--
Student:  No,

22:21.250 --> 22:24.230
they actually don't marry
before the first child.

22:24.230 --> 22:28.040
Prof: Her own son,
but that's because he is a

22:28.041 --> 22:28.941
foreigner.

22:28.940 --> 22:32.330
In China they have an
interesting system.

22:32.328 --> 22:34.548
In the old days,
in some places,

22:34.551 --> 22:39.221
that I don't think I described,
where they have child marriage,

22:39.221 --> 22:43.261
they marry a boy to an older
girl and the older girl then

22:43.255 --> 22:47.495
acts as a kind of nanny and
takes care of the boy until they

22:47.502 --> 22:48.442
grow up.

22:48.440 --> 22:51.350
But they're legally married,
but he's five years or old or

22:51.346 --> 22:53.706
something,
and she takes care of him until

22:53.713 --> 22:56.963
he becomes--
she's a surrogate mother until

22:56.959 --> 22:59.319
he becomes sexually mature.

22:59.318 --> 23:03.058
One of the explanations for the
low rate of Chinese fertility

23:03.055 --> 23:06.665
within marriage is that boys
rarely have sexual interest in

23:06.666 --> 23:09.486
their sisters,
at least not for long,

23:09.490 --> 23:12.550
and so this kid grows up and
this girl,

23:12.548 --> 23:15.018
older girl, has been taking
care of him and by the time they

23:15.018 --> 23:17.318
get married there's no sexual
interest hardly at all.

23:17.318 --> 23:21.648
So the rate of intercourse is
very low and the birthrate is

23:21.653 --> 23:25.243
very low and we talked quite a
bit about that.

23:25.240 --> 23:30.180
Also in traditional China men
can take many wives and men can

23:30.178 --> 23:31.658
take concubines.

23:31.660 --> 23:35.570
And they can take slaves,
and the distinction among all

23:35.568 --> 23:38.318
these categories is not very
clear,

23:38.318 --> 23:41.728
since marriage is usually not a
government function but they go

23:41.731 --> 23:44.431
to the local Buddhist shrine and
do a variety--

23:44.430 --> 23:47.930
or Taoist shrine and do a
variety of different practices

23:47.929 --> 23:49.519
depending on the woman.

23:49.519 --> 23:52.319
One of the most common ways--so
the marriage--

23:52.318 --> 23:54.478
the first--There will often be
a first wife,

23:54.480 --> 23:57.970
not necessarily the first woman
that's taken into the household

23:57.970 --> 24:01.240
for the sexual relations with
the husband but what's called

24:01.236 --> 24:03.766
the first wife and she will be
prominent.

24:03.769 --> 24:06.839
And then there will be all
kinds--depending on how rich the

24:06.838 --> 24:08.848
person is, a variety of other
women.

24:08.848 --> 24:13.978
Apparently one of the frequent
things is that the degree of

24:13.977 --> 24:18.487
importance of the marriage
depends on how public the

24:18.486 --> 24:19.986
ceremony was.

24:19.990 --> 24:23.990
If there's a big public
ceremony with lots of relatives

24:23.994 --> 24:27.314
and neighbors invited,
then it's very clear,

24:27.305 --> 24:30.845
this is a very clear--
this is what we would call a

24:30.845 --> 24:31.535
marriage.

24:31.538 --> 24:34.018
In other cases,
a woman is just taken in the

24:34.016 --> 24:37.526
middle of the night and brought
in the house and there's never

24:37.529 --> 24:41.259
anything public done whatsoever,
and she lives there as a sexual

24:41.258 --> 24:44.398
partner for the husband and you
can call it married or call it

24:44.404 --> 24:49.964
not married,
she lives in the house probably

24:49.959 --> 24:52.399
until she dies.

24:52.400 --> 24:58.090
This marriage again is not an
all or nothing kind of thing,

24:58.088 --> 25:00.648
it will start out with
different levels of status,

25:00.650 --> 25:03.050
and then during the course of
the marriage the status can

25:03.045 --> 25:03.425
change.

25:03.430 --> 25:07.330
The husband may become enamored
of the wife and in various ways

25:07.330 --> 25:10.730
raise her status or degrade her
status and so forth.

25:10.730 --> 25:14.850
Now in poor communities,
everywhere--

25:14.848 --> 25:18.378
you read about this in Brazil
and among people of the United

25:18.381 --> 25:20.531
States,
a formal marriage has,

25:20.528 --> 25:24.398
sort of, almost disappeared and
it's replaced by various

25:24.402 --> 25:25.742
informal unions.

25:25.740 --> 25:31.090
And these informal unions,
where there's no legal status

25:31.094 --> 25:35.164
whatsoever no--
the word marriage is just not

25:35.157 --> 25:37.827
used,
the state of the relationship

25:37.826 --> 25:42.066
between the man and the woman is
sort of negotiated daily.

25:42.068 --> 25:47.638
It can change all the time,
that it's not--again not a

25:47.638 --> 25:53.418
fixed thing but a very floating
kind of relationship.

25:53.420 --> 25:57.330
Even in the United States of
course marriage is not a uniform

25:57.327 --> 25:58.497
legal situation.

25:58.500 --> 26:01.920
Each--marriage has a state law,
it's not a federal--

26:01.920 --> 26:04.260
you don't get married in a
federal situation,

26:04.259 --> 26:05.509
you get married in a state
situation,

26:05.509 --> 26:08.529
and so there's 50 different
situations altogether,

26:08.528 --> 26:13.098
and we have prenuptial
agreements which arrange the

26:13.096 --> 26:18.116
financial relationship between
the man and his wife,

26:18.118 --> 26:21.528
or vice versa,
and so that can be different.

26:21.528 --> 26:25.548
In other places even more
issues than just financial are

26:25.551 --> 26:27.821
arranged by private contract.

26:27.818 --> 26:31.168
It's not set by law,
but by private contract between

26:31.173 --> 26:34.263
the marrying parties,
or more likely between the

26:34.262 --> 26:35.712
marrying families.

26:35.710 --> 26:39.540
A friend of mine,
whose daughter went to college

26:39.539 --> 26:43.859
in Egypt, went to The American
University in Cairo.

26:43.858 --> 26:46.468
I was going to say she fell in
love with an Egyptian guy,

26:46.471 --> 26:47.591
but I don't know that.

26:47.588 --> 26:50.158
They had sex,
I don't know whether they fell

26:50.159 --> 26:52.729
in love or not,
but she got pregnant and the

26:52.728 --> 26:54.638
girl decided to get married.

26:54.640 --> 26:57.660
Her parents were divorced and
the girl's father wanted to have

26:57.661 --> 26:58.851
nothing to do with it.

26:58.848 --> 27:01.958
So, there was the mother,
she had to do something about

27:01.960 --> 27:04.380
it, and she was opposed to the
marriage.

27:04.380 --> 27:07.030
But the girl didn't listen,
so they were going to go ahead

27:07.029 --> 27:07.959
with the marriage.

27:07.960 --> 27:10.340
Now in Egypt,
at that time,

27:10.337 --> 27:15.637
you have to have a marriage
contract and that specifies all

27:15.642 --> 27:19.212
kinds of rights that the woman
has.

27:19.210 --> 27:22.170
What rights does she have in
her children?

27:22.170 --> 27:24.220
Without that specified in the
marriage contract,

27:24.223 --> 27:25.713
they were totally the
husband's.

27:25.710 --> 27:28.240
If there's any divorce or
anything, the husband gets them,

27:28.243 --> 27:29.803
there's no legal case
whatsoever.

27:29.799 --> 27:31.719
What are her rights to travel?

27:31.720 --> 27:34.240
Can she travel by herself?

27:34.240 --> 27:35.110
Can she go abroad?

27:35.108 --> 27:36.918
Can she travel around Egypt by
herself?

27:36.920 --> 27:38.510
What are her rights to
residence?

27:38.509 --> 27:42.019
What are her rights to child
custody and so forth?

27:42.019 --> 27:45.609
All of this had to be specified
and there was no husband to do

27:45.606 --> 27:48.946
it,
so guess who played--ersatz,

27:48.951 --> 27:55.681
I played the role of the father
and helped negotiate this thing,

27:55.682 --> 27:57.822
very interesting.

27:57.818 --> 28:03.658
Each marriage means something
different in many places.

28:03.660 --> 28:07.450
You can see that in the DHS
surveys,

28:07.450 --> 28:09.090
The Demographic and Health
Surveys that I've shown you,

28:09.088 --> 28:12.838
it never uses the word
marriage, it says 'in union,'

28:12.842 --> 28:17.112
that's because 'marriage' means
so many different things or

28:17.109 --> 28:18.949
means nothing at all.

28:18.950 --> 28:24.070
Now it's often perceived that
teenage pregnancy and related

28:24.068 --> 28:28.148
social problems are--
from graphs like that are

28:28.150 --> 28:32.580
either uniquely American or more
extreme in America,

28:32.579 --> 28:34.369
but it's not the case.

28:34.368 --> 28:37.828
For instance,
in Japan, of women who are

28:37.833 --> 28:42.893
teenagers at their first birth,
82% became pregnant before

28:42.894 --> 28:44.054
marrying.

28:44.048 --> 28:49.878
Of women age 20 to 24,58%
became pregnant before marrying.

28:49.880 --> 28:53.550
And, of all women,
26% became pregnant before

28:53.550 --> 28:54.470
marrying.

28:54.470 --> 28:57.460
In other words,
if a Japanese woman got

28:57.457 --> 29:02.247
pregnant before her late 20s she
was probably unmarried at the

29:02.251 --> 29:04.691
time that she got pregnant.

29:04.690 --> 29:12.760
These numbers are--well are
numbers that have actual--have

29:12.758 --> 29:14.738
live births.

29:14.740 --> 29:18.150
As you'll see in the next
lecture, Japan has an extremely

29:18.154 --> 29:21.624
high rate of abortion,
so these numbers are way--these

29:21.621 --> 29:25.191
are the women who carry the
birth to term and probably,

29:25.190 --> 29:28.930
at least these are
underestimates by a factor of

29:28.931 --> 29:33.231
two because this doesn't take
into account abortion.

29:33.230 --> 29:36.660
I've assigned you reading that
discusses this issue from a

29:36.662 --> 29:41.402
whole variety of perspectives,
and I guess I don't have to

29:41.404 --> 29:46.614
tell you what it is because
you'll do the reading.

29:46.608 --> 29:50.418
A little bit of the biological
background to these issues and

29:50.423 --> 29:53.033
some of this,
I don't have to tell you about,

29:53.027 --> 29:55.637
because you were teenagers
yourself very recently.

29:55.640 --> 29:59.660
Several things happen at
puberty and there are tremendous

29:59.663 --> 30:02.543
physical changes,
you've noticed this.

30:02.538 --> 30:04.658
There are tremendous
physiological changes,

30:04.660 --> 30:07.620
I'm sure you've noticed that,
and there are even tremendous

30:07.617 --> 30:10.417
emotional changes which of
course you guys wouldn't know

30:10.423 --> 30:13.383
anything about because you've
been studying too hard to pay

30:13.381 --> 30:14.811
any attention to this.

30:14.808 --> 30:19.848
Evolution has clearly designed
to have this incredible eruption

30:19.852 --> 30:22.782
of the ability to get
infatuated,

30:22.778 --> 30:25.198
to fall in-love,
to have sexual emotions,

30:25.200 --> 30:28.710
and it all comes on like a ton
of bricks at puberty.

30:28.710 --> 30:30.750
This is not by chance,
this is not by culture;

30:30.750 --> 30:35.170
this is straight old mother
evolution doing these things to

30:35.172 --> 30:35.632
you.

30:35.630 --> 30:39.180
Simultaneously with this,
especially in males,

30:39.182 --> 30:42.892
there's an eruption--it's not
absent in females,

30:42.891 --> 30:47.471
a great eruption of revolt
against parental authority.

30:47.470 --> 30:49.980
When you were a little kid you
did whatever mommy says,

30:49.981 --> 30:50.681
more or less.

30:50.680 --> 30:55.460
When you're a teenager,
no go, there's competitiveness,

30:55.460 --> 30:57.770
there's aggressiveness,
there's violence,

30:57.769 --> 31:03.179
it onsets at puberty and all of
this is to set a place in the

31:03.176 --> 31:05.156
dominance hierarchy.

31:05.160 --> 31:06.920
Of course we are,
in the West,

31:06.923 --> 31:10.633
well aware of these incredible
emotional outbursts and there's

31:10.632 --> 31:14.402
tons of literature about this of
which probably the most famous

31:14.403 --> 31:16.413
is Romeo and Juliet.

31:16.410 --> 31:18.820
Anybody take a Shakespeare
class?

31:18.818 --> 31:21.548
How old are Romeo and Juliet
supposed to be?

31:21.548 --> 31:26.558
13,14, something like that and
what did their great

31:26.560 --> 31:30.270
overpowering love cause them to
do?

31:30.269 --> 31:32.239
They killed themselves over it.

31:32.240 --> 31:35.480
Very purposely,
they could not live without the

31:35.478 --> 31:37.448
other--with their partner.

31:37.450 --> 31:43.360
This emotion is extraordinarily
strong, even stronger then the

31:43.357 --> 31:45.487
desire to have life.

31:45.490 --> 31:49.960
Now adolescent sexuality is
more or less disruptive

31:49.959 --> 31:52.909
depending a lot on the culture.

31:52.910 --> 31:55.710
Probably the one most important
variable, is,

31:55.707 --> 31:58.057
how much teen sexuality is
allowed?

31:58.058 --> 32:00.968
Does one have an outlet for
these emotions?

32:00.970 --> 32:05.500
If the culture allows an
outlet, in of a variety of ways,

32:05.500 --> 32:10.190
then it's probably easier for
the adolescent to accommodate

32:10.191 --> 32:10.921
this.

32:10.920 --> 32:13.010
If, like our culture,
in principle,

32:13.011 --> 32:15.781
we're not supposed to have an
outlet for this,

32:15.780 --> 32:19.290
then the tensions build up and
strange things happen.

32:19.289 --> 32:23.379


32:23.380 --> 32:26.800
Different societies handle
adolescent sexuality very

32:26.799 --> 32:27.739
differently.

32:27.740 --> 32:32.840
You read the Om Gad
story about the Egyptian woman

32:32.836 --> 32:37.926
and that is one way in which
traditional societies handle

32:37.932 --> 32:38.662
sex.

32:38.660 --> 32:42.020
You remember that her sexual
initiation began very early;

32:42.019 --> 32:44.709
it began before puberty,
if you remember that.

32:44.710 --> 32:48.460
It was introduced with what she
perceived to be a fair amount of

32:48.463 --> 32:49.123
violence.

32:49.118 --> 32:53.808
Remember on her wedding night
she had no clue what was going

32:53.806 --> 32:57.856
on and the women come and
investigate her before the

32:57.856 --> 33:03.016
marriage ceremony and it must be
an extremely scary business.

33:03.019 --> 33:05.689
Even before that,
the women in Egypt,

33:05.690 --> 33:08.130
all those--well that was only
one woman you read about,

33:08.130 --> 33:11.400
they all had clitorectomies,
which again you read about

33:11.395 --> 33:11.875
there.

33:11.880 --> 33:16.960
There's a lot of violence
involved in teenage sexuality in

33:16.955 --> 33:18.555
a lot of places.

33:18.558 --> 33:22.278
It's moderately common,
at least in traditional times,

33:22.284 --> 33:26.084
that marriage and first
intercourse precede puberty.

33:26.078 --> 33:30.308
In Iran, for instance,
a few years ago Iran raised the

33:30.307 --> 33:33.737
legal age of marriage to the age
of nine.

33:33.740 --> 33:35.770
I may have mentioned this in a
previous lecture,

33:35.769 --> 33:38.519
and the conservatives were very
upset about this,

33:38.519 --> 33:41.729
and they were opposed to this
because they considered that

33:41.732 --> 33:45.172
raising of the marriage age to
be much too liberal for Iranian

33:45.173 --> 33:45.853
society.

33:45.848 --> 33:50.068
The reason that they chose the
age of nine was that Mohammed

33:50.069 --> 33:53.079
married his favorite wife,
his second wife,

33:53.075 --> 33:55.145
Aisha, when she was nine.

33:55.150 --> 33:58.550
Again, I warn you,
that getting married doesn't

33:58.554 --> 34:02.334
necessarily mean the onset of
sexual intercourse.

34:02.328 --> 34:04.768
We don't have any idea what
happened there,

34:04.769 --> 34:07.309
but getting married,
like the five year old boys in

34:07.310 --> 34:11.160
China getting married does not--
you don't know what the means

34:11.161 --> 34:12.701
with respect to sex.

34:12.699 --> 34:16.649
Just that a contract has been
decided upon and,

34:16.653 --> 34:20.523
at some stage,
sex will take place between the

34:20.521 --> 34:21.211
two.

34:21.210 --> 34:27.000
With respect to this bill,
parliament actually passed it--

34:27.000 --> 34:30.880
later on they did raise it to
nine and then a further bill

34:30.878 --> 34:35.098
came in to raise the age from 9
to 13, but that was blocked.

34:35.099 --> 34:37.569
The Guardian Council,
which is the conservative

34:37.565 --> 34:41.375
religious body,
and they thought since Mohammed

34:41.382 --> 34:46.722
got married at nine that you
couldn't do anything different

34:46.722 --> 34:47.922
than that.

34:47.920 --> 34:52.880
Now in many parts of the world,
until very recently,

34:52.880 --> 34:56.300
if a girl got into her late
teens or certainly early 20s

34:56.295 --> 35:00.295
without being married,
it was considered a disaster.

35:00.300 --> 35:03.930
Then she was--by 20,
much too old and she would

35:03.927 --> 35:07.787
never get married,
she would be a spinster for the

35:07.793 --> 35:09.453
rest of her life.

35:09.449 --> 35:13.049


35:13.050 --> 35:18.180
These cultures had--most
traditional cultures had various

35:18.177 --> 35:21.837
prescriptions against premarital
sex,

35:21.840 --> 35:25.950
sex before marriage,
and this has several very

35:25.949 --> 35:27.959
important functions.

35:27.960 --> 35:31.840
One is to ensure the paternity,
if you're married and you got

35:31.835 --> 35:34.355
pregnant,
then the society can be pretty

35:34.364 --> 35:37.104
sure of,
or at least can assume legally,

35:37.101 --> 35:39.941
that the father--
that they know the father,

35:39.943 --> 35:43.443
and therefore the economic
responsibility for the child is

35:43.440 --> 35:44.300
very clear.

35:44.300 --> 35:49.850
That's one the reasons to have
a fixed legal status of

35:49.847 --> 35:50.997
marriage.

35:51.000 --> 35:55.760
Back then marriage and puberty
were essentially the same,

35:55.760 --> 35:59.870
pre-pubescent girls were
all--post pubescent girls they

35:59.867 --> 36:02.907
got married at puberty and
that's it,

36:02.909 --> 36:05.379
so a lot of these languages
don't have words that

36:05.376 --> 36:08.306
distinguish between maiden,
in the sense of a young girl

36:08.306 --> 36:11.026
and virgin in the sense of a
girl who has not had sex.

36:11.030 --> 36:15.700
There's a large theological
discussion in the Bible when the

36:15.702 --> 36:18.962
Virgin Mary--
was she a maiden or a virgin

36:18.958 --> 36:23.318
and the language maybe doesn't
distinguish between these two

36:23.315 --> 36:24.715
kinds of things.

36:24.719 --> 36:28.499
Another prohibition against
premarital sex,

36:28.500 --> 36:32.570
since puberty and marriage were
often very tightly tied,

36:32.570 --> 36:36.920
that the prohibition against
premarital sex was really

36:36.916 --> 36:39.126
intended,
in many cases,

36:39.128 --> 36:42.638
to protect girls from
pre-pubertal sex.

36:42.639 --> 36:47.699
What was--had originally that
goal,

36:47.699 --> 36:51.849
to deal with pre-pubertal sex,
if you retain the legal aspect

36:51.851 --> 36:54.761
of it until the women marry much
later,

36:54.760 --> 37:01.250
it doesn't anymore have that
kind of function whatsoever.

37:01.250 --> 37:07.910
Teenage childbearing was very
common, illegitimacy was very

37:07.914 --> 37:14.924
common, so the earliest records
we have are from the 1600s and

37:14.922 --> 37:20.762
the Chesapeake Bay Colony;
way back then guess what

37:20.762 --> 37:26.052
fraction of women were pregnant
when they got married,

37:26.045 --> 37:30.825
of married women what fraction
were pregnant?

37:30.829 --> 37:34.619
Make a guess for the 1600s,
Chesapeake Bay Colony.

37:34.619 --> 37:35.609
Student:  Eighty-five
percent.

37:35.610 --> 37:36.200
Prof: What?

37:36.199 --> 37:37.039
Student:  Eighty-five
percent.

37:37.039 --> 37:39.699
Prof: Thirty percent,
which is very similar to the

37:39.699 --> 37:41.869
numbers that we've had until
recently,

37:41.869 --> 37:44.179
it just seems to be almost a
constant.

37:44.179 --> 37:48.359
They have fairly decent records
through American history and a

37:48.358 --> 37:52.538
lot of histories and the rates
of premarital pregnancy seem to

37:52.538 --> 37:53.838
go up and down.

37:53.840 --> 37:57.340
There seem to be large
increases in the late 1600s and

37:57.338 --> 38:01.028
around 1725 to the earliest
booms of premarital pregnancy

38:01.034 --> 38:04.934
and I don't have any idea what
the cause of those are,

38:04.929 --> 38:08.339
but you can go to our professor
of colonial history and try to

38:08.344 --> 38:08.964
find out.

38:08.960 --> 38:13.070
How were these--why were these
not a social problem these

38:13.072 --> 38:14.912
premarital pregnancies?

38:14.909 --> 38:18.669
Because what happened then?

38:18.670 --> 38:23.840
They got married and those
kinds of marriages are called?

38:23.840 --> 38:26.160
Shotgun weddings.

38:26.159 --> 38:28.589
Have you all not heard that
word 'shotgun weddings'?

38:28.590 --> 38:32.970
You get pregnant first then--in
principle the image comes from

38:32.972 --> 38:36.352
the girl's father carrying a
shotgun saying,

38:36.349 --> 38:38.089
'You're going to marry my
daughter aren't you?'

38:38.090 --> 38:42.450
Those are standardly called
'shotgun weddings'.

38:42.449 --> 38:45.239
I think I've mentioned to you
that if the mother didn't get

38:45.239 --> 38:46.989
married,
either because of her

38:46.992 --> 38:49.502
unwillingness or the guy's
unwillingness,

38:49.500 --> 38:52.660
then she had a real problem,
because in the Anglo-American

38:52.664 --> 38:55.944
tradition it was not the family
that had responsibility,

38:55.940 --> 39:00.070
the village had responsibility
for the unwed child to--

39:00.070 --> 39:02.500
both the mother and the child
it had to support,

39:02.500 --> 39:05.210
and for all these villages
living on the edge of

39:05.213 --> 39:09.603
subsistence this was not--
this was a very big burden.

39:09.599 --> 39:12.489
I think I mentioned this,
the stories of pregnant women

39:12.485 --> 39:15.585
being chased from village to
village so that they would not

39:15.585 --> 39:18.145
have the child in the village
because then,

39:18.150 --> 39:20.410
ever thereafter,
that child is the

39:20.409 --> 39:22.599
responsibility of the village.

39:22.599 --> 39:26.159


39:26.159 --> 39:30.169
Another thing to keep in mind,
that we talk now a lot about,

39:30.170 --> 39:34.180
is single parent families and
what a bad problem this is.

39:34.179 --> 39:38.549
It turns out that the
prevalence of single parent

39:38.550 --> 39:41.920
families has always been very
high.

39:41.920 --> 39:43.920
In the 1700s,
for instance,

39:43.922 --> 39:46.932
this is a quote from a history
book,

39:46.929 --> 39:49.429
"One the main
characteristics of European

39:49.427 --> 39:52.477
urban households in the
eighteenth century was the large

39:52.481 --> 39:55.091
proportion that were headed by
women."

39:55.090 --> 39:57.830
In Rheims under the Ancien
Regime,

39:57.829 --> 39:59.929
in France before the French
Revolution,

39:59.929 --> 40:06.469
one out of four homes was
headed by a woman and 15% to 25%

40:06.471 --> 40:12.441
in all the towns for which they
have data on this.

40:12.440 --> 40:17.670


40:17.670 --> 40:21.940
In the U.S.,
the prevalence--the big divorce

40:21.943 --> 40:25.923
boom came after the 1950s in
America,

40:25.920 --> 40:28.900
but it turns out that the
prevalence of single parent

40:28.902 --> 40:32.122
households at the end of the
twentieth century was almost

40:32.117 --> 40:34.987
identical to that at the
beginning of the twentieth

40:34.985 --> 40:35.785
century.

40:35.789 --> 40:38.269
What was the difference?

40:38.268 --> 40:43.328
At the end of the century,
single parent households were

40:43.326 --> 40:47.736
caused by either lack of
marriage or divorce,

40:47.739 --> 40:51.439
but at the beginning of the
century death,

40:51.440 --> 40:52.840
death of one of the parents.

40:52.840 --> 40:56.890
What has happened is that
marriages on average didn't last

40:56.887 --> 41:00.927
very long in traditional times,
because one of the parents

41:00.934 --> 41:03.994
would die;
the death rates were so high.

41:03.989 --> 41:07.979
They coped with single parent
families because of death,

41:07.980 --> 41:11.170
and now people psychologically,
apparently,

41:11.170 --> 41:12.830
are not attuned to staying
together for long times,

41:12.829 --> 41:14.369
or even getting married in the
first place.

41:14.369 --> 41:17.869
So, now that situation has
changed so that now it's sort of

41:17.873 --> 41:20.773
voluntary single-parent
families, but the numbers

41:20.771 --> 41:23.311
surprisingly have changed very
little.

41:23.309 --> 41:27.319


41:27.320 --> 41:30.660
It's another one of these
things that I've talked about in

41:30.661 --> 41:34.591
history where things change from
being outside of human control,

41:34.590 --> 41:35.960
like whether you're married or
not,

41:35.960 --> 41:37.360
whether you're going to be a
single parent--

41:37.360 --> 41:41.470
outside of human control are
brought into human control,

41:41.469 --> 41:44.219
it's in some sense under human
choice.

41:44.219 --> 41:49.109


41:49.110 --> 41:52.490
What has changed in the modern
West with respect to all of

41:52.494 --> 41:54.844
this,
and is now spreading everywhere

41:54.838 --> 41:57.858
is that children are not
supposed to get married as

41:57.855 --> 41:58.635
teenagers.

41:58.639 --> 42:01.959
If you had gotten married in
high school, probably every

42:01.960 --> 42:05.710
single one of your parents would
have really been very upset by

42:05.706 --> 42:06.246
that.

42:06.250 --> 42:09.240
Of course in the old--In the
essence, it has to do with

42:09.235 --> 42:09.895
education.

42:09.900 --> 42:12.350
In the old days you were a
peasant,

42:12.349 --> 42:14.349
you were a farmer,
and things were done the way

42:14.351 --> 42:16.311
they had always been done and
little kids,

42:16.309 --> 42:18.869
starting at age five,
six, seven started going into

42:18.867 --> 42:21.117
the fields with his mother or
his father,

42:21.119 --> 42:23.649
or both of them,
and watching how the farming is

42:23.652 --> 42:24.032
done.

42:24.030 --> 42:27.770
By the time he was a teenager
he had probably learned how you

42:27.768 --> 42:30.508
do things because it's done
traditionally.

42:30.510 --> 42:33.830
There was no science to it,
there was no quantification or

42:33.831 --> 42:35.581
arithmetic involved in this.

42:35.579 --> 42:36.679
This is the way you did it.

42:36.679 --> 42:39.339
When the moon is at such and
such a phase,

42:39.335 --> 42:42.315
they have to do this,
you start planting and so

42:42.317 --> 42:44.517
forth, and you learn all that.

42:44.518 --> 42:48.528
There was no need for the--no
economic need to have a lot of

42:48.525 --> 42:49.335
education.

42:49.340 --> 42:51.300
Now of course that's turned
around completely.

42:51.300 --> 42:54.750
Even farmers definitely do not
do things in a traditional

42:54.746 --> 42:56.996
manner;
it requires a lot of education

42:57.003 --> 43:00.113
to be a very efficient farmer,
and so we need a lot of

43:00.114 --> 43:04.574
schooling for whatever we do,
so we're not supposed to get

43:04.565 --> 43:08.525
married until our schooling is
finished.

43:08.530 --> 43:11.780
Your parents would not only
have been mortified if you got

43:11.777 --> 43:14.277
married in high school,
but they probably would be

43:14.284 --> 43:16.614
mortified if you got married
before you graduated college.

43:16.610 --> 43:20.170
How many of you think your
parents would be very happy if

43:20.170 --> 43:21.570
you got married now?

43:21.570 --> 43:23.360
How many of you are married?

43:23.360 --> 43:27.380
One, two sorry,
two of the TAs are married and

43:27.376 --> 43:30.766
they're--TAs are moderately
married.

43:30.768 --> 43:34.668
Now mostly I teach biology
majors and we all know when the

43:34.668 --> 43:36.378
biology majors grow up.

43:36.380 --> 43:40.720


43:40.719 --> 43:44.319
Is it when the get their MD or
is it when they finish their

43:44.315 --> 43:45.055
residency?

43:45.059 --> 43:51.519
That's the big issue and they
generally don't get married

43:51.516 --> 43:53.126
before that.

43:53.130 --> 44:00.230
Now we have to do a little
quantification of all of this,

44:00.228 --> 44:07.578
so here is the crux of the
problem, and this is in 1890.

44:07.579 --> 44:11.229
Menarche of course is the onset
of the menses,

44:11.231 --> 44:16.261
and presumably more or less the
time of beginning of fertility,

44:16.262 --> 44:19.672
and that was at about 15 years
of age.

44:19.670 --> 44:22.140
Now with presumably increased
nutrition,

44:22.139 --> 44:26.439
although the reasons are still
somewhat questionable,

44:26.440 --> 44:31.390
the age of menarche is now
12.5, so this period has been

44:31.389 --> 44:33.099
extended forward.

44:33.099 --> 44:37.799
The age at marriage was 22 in
1890, the average age of

44:37.795 --> 44:41.335
marriage for women,
this is for women.

44:41.340 --> 44:45.220
The period was still
fairly--between the onset

44:45.217 --> 44:49.607
presumably of sexual desire and
the "legitimate

44:49.610 --> 44:52.110
realization"
of it,

44:52.110 --> 44:55.710
at marriage,
was about 7.5 years and then

44:55.710 --> 44:59.400
very rapidly a first birth would
occur.

44:59.400 --> 45:03.840
Now what happens is you go to
1988, menarche becomes earlier

45:03.835 --> 45:08.195
and marriage becomes a lot
later, and now both these things

45:08.195 --> 45:10.295
have expanded even more.

45:10.300 --> 45:16.460
Now the period of time between
the onset of adolescence and

45:16.463 --> 45:21.833
sexual desires and marriage,
becomes longer and as time goes

45:21.827 --> 45:26.097
on this gets longer and longer
and it's the same story for men.

45:26.099 --> 45:29.549
We don't have good early data
on spermarche,

45:29.554 --> 45:34.384
but marriage is even later than
for women, so for men is 12.5

45:34.376 --> 45:35.176
years.

45:35.179 --> 45:39.889
That's a very long period of
time in the lifecycle of a man

45:39.891 --> 45:43.361
especially,
not much less for a woman,

45:43.356 --> 45:48.276
and especially during the
fertile years say 15 to 40,

45:48.280 --> 45:53.150
like 25 fertile years this
is--or 35 this is half or

45:53.150 --> 45:58.310
somewhat less than half of your
total fertile period is

45:58.306 --> 45:59.736
premarital.

45:59.739 --> 46:03.529
Quantitatively,
that's probably where the

46:03.527 --> 46:05.797
social issue comes up.

46:05.800 --> 46:09.020
Way before 1890s,
in traditional societies,

46:09.018 --> 46:12.318
menarche and marriage come at
the same time,

46:12.320 --> 46:15.100
there's no real interval there
so there's not a social problem

46:15.101 --> 46:18.261
of what to--
the social problem is what to

46:18.262 --> 46:21.832
do with sexuality in this
interval here.

46:21.829 --> 46:24.389
In traditional times,
when our religions grew up and

46:24.385 --> 46:26.785
most of our cultural
presuppositions grew up,

46:26.789 --> 46:29.929
there was no period,
or extremely little period,

46:29.929 --> 46:35.289
between the onset of
adolescence and marriage.

46:35.289 --> 46:39.209
As time goes on and the need
for education increases,

46:39.208 --> 46:43.578
that period between onset of
adolescence and marriage grows

46:43.581 --> 46:45.241
longer and longer.

46:45.239 --> 46:49.259
There becomes this very long
social period in which,

46:49.260 --> 46:52.200
by some social conventions,
you're not supposed to have

46:52.199 --> 46:54.639
sex,
the child is still a child in a

46:54.637 --> 46:56.927
sense,
not supposed to have sex but

46:56.925 --> 47:00.745
the biology is telling them that
yes they want it very much.

47:00.750 --> 47:03.620
Societies have had,
Western societies especially,

47:03.619 --> 47:05.839
but the rest of the world is
not any different,

47:05.840 --> 47:09.400
have had a long--have had a lot
of trouble and are still in the

47:09.398 --> 47:12.898
middle of having difficulty with
deciding what to do with this

47:12.898 --> 47:13.528
period.

47:13.530 --> 47:15.750
What are the morals,
what are the ethics,

47:15.750 --> 47:18.970
what's the religious attitudes
that should take place about

47:18.969 --> 47:20.689
sexuality in these periods.

47:20.690 --> 47:25.950
This whole lecture basically,
this whole problem of teenage

47:25.951 --> 47:29.671
sexuality is due to that problem
there.

47:29.670 --> 47:38.540


47:38.539 --> 47:42.199
Now if you look at the time
what has happened,

47:42.197 --> 47:46.097
what has happened to sexuality
in this period?

47:46.099 --> 47:50.739
Well what do you think has
happened to the frequency of sex

47:50.744 --> 47:53.874
among teenagers,
unmarried teenagers?

47:53.869 --> 47:57.459
Up, well yes that is correct,
here's data,

47:57.458 --> 48:02.618
this data is not--you want to
bring the data more up to date

48:02.623 --> 48:05.253
but we just don't have it.

48:05.250 --> 48:11.160
Here's women starting in 1956,
after World War II,

48:11.159 --> 48:15.239
there's a very conservative
period in America where the war

48:15.240 --> 48:17.940
was very disruptive,
they had the big depression,

48:17.940 --> 48:18.480
then the war.

48:18.480 --> 48:20.980
People wanted to go back to a
traditional way of living:

48:20.983 --> 48:22.763
a little white house in the
suburbs,

48:22.760 --> 48:25.740
a man and a wife,
and a white picket fence around

48:25.737 --> 48:28.747
it,
and the fraction of teenage

48:28.750 --> 48:33.670
women--this is teenagers,
having sex was like still a

48:33.666 --> 48:36.296
quarter--
more than a quarter so it was

48:36.300 --> 48:37.720
not zero by any means.

48:37.719 --> 48:42.089
Then as time goes on it goes
higher and higher and now it's

48:42.092 --> 48:44.132
sort of doubled the rate.

48:44.130 --> 48:48.700
Not now, this is 1980,
late 1980s, so we've progressed

48:48.695 --> 48:54.035
another 20,30 years since then
and it's just continued to creep

48:54.036 --> 48:54.636
up.

48:54.639 --> 48:59.139
This is for females and this is
for males showing the same

48:59.137 --> 48:59.767
thing.

48:59.768 --> 49:03.498
So, yes, indeed,
sex has increased.

49:03.500 --> 49:06.340
No question about that.

49:06.340 --> 49:08.500
What do you think has happened
to the teen birthrate?

49:08.500 --> 49:11.620
This is really what people
don't realize.

49:11.619 --> 49:15.819
During that same period,
when the frequency of teen sex

49:15.824 --> 49:20.574
was rising quite noticeably,
the teen birthrate went from 80

49:20.574 --> 49:23.594
or even 90 in the middle 1950s
during--

49:23.590 --> 49:26.140
where that other graph started
in the middle of this

49:26.139 --> 49:29.139
conservative period there was a
very high teen birthrate,

49:29.139 --> 49:33.349
and then it's gone down and
it's continued on down,

49:33.349 --> 49:37.089
it's now down to about this
level, about 40 currently.

49:37.090 --> 49:41.440
These graphs were all done
during this period of peak--its

49:41.436 --> 49:44.026
being at peak as a social issue.

49:44.030 --> 49:47.600
This bump here,
where it raised temporarily,

49:47.603 --> 49:49.103
was significant.

49:49.099 --> 49:54.759
You're going from 50 to 60 or
something, which is a 20%

49:54.762 --> 49:57.492
increase in teen births.

49:57.489 --> 50:02.539
No one really knows what that
is, but sort of the presumption

50:02.538 --> 50:06.828
it was the Reagan and Bush 'just
say no' period,

50:06.829 --> 50:10.639
where social programs to combat
pregnancy,

50:10.639 --> 50:12.669
largely sex education,
were frowned upon,

50:12.670 --> 50:16.240
were put down and the result
was an increase.

50:16.239 --> 50:19.719
That's very conjectural,
we really don't have a way of

50:19.717 --> 50:23.657
finding out what caused that but
since that's over--it's come

50:23.657 --> 50:28.547
back down and continued to fall;
every year basically the rate

50:28.547 --> 50:33.077
of teen pregnancy gets less than
the previous year.

50:33.079 --> 50:35.639
It's still a big problem.

50:35.639 --> 50:39.589
Of course I showed you in the
first graph, there's still about

50:39.592 --> 50:42.772
a half a million teenage
pregnancies each year.

50:42.768 --> 50:47.928
That is, in the American
context, about half what it used

50:47.929 --> 50:51.339
to be,
but in the world--it's

50:51.342 --> 50:58.272
middling, it's more than in
Europe and less than in a lot of

50:58.268 --> 51:00.498
other countries.

51:00.500 --> 51:02.890
If you break this down,
this decline in teen

51:02.885 --> 51:05.715
childbearing you can average it
out, it's 1% a year,

51:05.715 --> 51:07.985
kind of continually,
since the 1950s.

51:07.989 --> 51:11.659
In the last 50 years teenage
pregnancy has dropped on average

51:11.657 --> 51:13.857
1% a year very,
very consistently.

51:13.860 --> 51:15.250
You can break it down.

51:15.250 --> 51:16.890
It's dropped in all 50 states.

51:16.889 --> 51:19.119
If you break it down
geographically,

51:19.117 --> 51:22.557
it's dropped in all ethnic
groups, you pick your ethnic

51:22.556 --> 51:25.546
groups, the teen pregnancy rate
has fallen.

51:25.550 --> 51:29.250
Especially during the peak of
the crisis, there was a special

51:29.251 --> 51:32.581
worry about poor teenagers,
and at that time that meant

51:32.583 --> 51:34.253
mostly black teenagers.

51:34.250 --> 51:39.400
The rate of drop of teen
pregnancy among black teenagers

51:39.398 --> 51:44.078
has been about twice the rate of
drop among whites,

51:44.081 --> 51:47.921
so they've come much closer
together.

51:47.920 --> 51:51.090
It's not only childbearing,
but actual pregnancy rates.

51:51.090 --> 51:54.910
This is childbearing rates,
if I put up pregnancy rates it

51:54.909 --> 51:57.189
would look pretty much the same.

51:57.190 --> 52:00.230
Now we've got a problem here.

52:00.230 --> 52:04.040
We've said that the rate of
teen pregnancy something like

52:04.041 --> 52:07.681
doubled and the rate of teen--
sorry the rate of teen

52:07.681 --> 52:12.511
sexuality somewhat doubled,
yet the rate of teen childbirth

52:12.514 --> 52:16.054
went in half,
so there's a factor of four

52:16.047 --> 52:18.017
that we have to explain.

52:18.018 --> 52:22.158
What we think should have
doubled in fact went down by a

52:22.155 --> 52:23.355
factor of two.

52:23.360 --> 52:28.490
What is the factor here?

52:28.489 --> 52:32.019
What do teens start to do?

52:32.019 --> 52:33.269
What?

52:33.269 --> 52:34.589
Student:  Married more.

52:34.590 --> 52:35.480
Prof: They what?

52:35.480 --> 52:36.260
Student:  Married.

52:36.260 --> 52:38.950
Prof: No,
no marriage--I'll show you

52:38.954 --> 52:40.434
marriage in a minute.

52:40.429 --> 52:43.949
In fact I will show you
marriage, good that's a good

52:43.947 --> 52:44.497
point.

52:44.500 --> 52:49.690
This is marriage rates for
different ages and here is women

52:49.686 --> 52:52.456
in the prime age of marriage.

52:52.460 --> 52:56.770
This is the marriage rate--in
1960 marriage disappears,

52:56.768 --> 53:00.198
marriage falls off the face of
the cliff.

53:00.199 --> 53:01.429
Student:  Birthrate.

53:01.429 --> 53:04.659
Prof: I'm sorry
birthrate, yes sorry my mistake.

53:04.659 --> 53:10.819
The birthrate drops
tremendously and what happens in

53:10.822 --> 53:14.692
the early 1960s to cause that?

53:14.690 --> 53:16.640
Student:  The pill.

53:16.639 --> 53:19.329
Prof: The pill,
the birth control pill,

53:19.333 --> 53:21.793
so this is a pure technological
effect.

53:21.789 --> 53:24.909
This kind of drop,
we've seen this for China,

53:24.911 --> 53:28.601
and when Mexico legalized
contraception you get these

53:28.599 --> 53:29.309
drops.

53:29.309 --> 53:33.189
This is 15 years it goes from
250 down to less than 125,

53:33.193 --> 53:37.433
it drops by a factor of two in
15 years, an enormous drop.

53:37.429 --> 53:43.819
This is all a technological
drop due to the availability of

53:43.824 --> 53:49.454
modern contraception,
and the pill in particular.

53:49.449 --> 53:52.029
We've seen that kind of--That
means that,

53:52.030 --> 53:55.120
at this point in time,
when the birthrate was one out

53:55.123 --> 53:58.103
of every four women every year
of fertile ages,

53:58.099 --> 53:59.899
that's a very--that's a pretty
high rate.

53:59.900 --> 54:03.130
That means that--I mean the
other social indicators don't

54:03.130 --> 54:05.300
change so much,
like the economy or the amount

54:05.304 --> 54:06.974
of female education or anything
like that,

54:06.969 --> 54:08.029
not so rapidly.

54:08.030 --> 54:11.630
So this means that at that time
there must have been a fairly

54:11.630 --> 54:13.850
large desire to stop
childbearing,

54:13.849 --> 54:17.529
but there wasn't the technology
available and so as soon as the

54:17.534 --> 54:20.274
technology is available the
birthrate drops.

54:20.268 --> 54:23.268
Now for teenagers,
here's age 15 to 19,

54:23.271 --> 54:28.011
you also get a drop also at the
same time, but it's much more

54:28.012 --> 54:28.962
gradual.

54:28.960 --> 54:30.360
Why is that?

54:30.360 --> 54:33.050
That's--
Student:  I'm sorry,

54:33.047 --> 54:35.477
if I could ask you a question,
have you factored in the

54:35.483 --> 54:37.743
legalization of abortion which
took place in--

54:37.739 --> 54:41.099
Prof: The legalization
of abortion is probably this

54:41.097 --> 54:42.097
blip down here.

54:42.099 --> 54:45.999


54:46.000 --> 54:49.410
No, that's later,
that was 1973 so that's down

54:49.413 --> 54:51.823
here,
the fertility drop

54:51.817 --> 54:58.207
is--contraception gets legalized
in 1965 and abortion in 1973,

54:58.210 --> 55:02.310
so it's too late for that but
the availability of

55:02.313 --> 55:05.993
contraception and the
legalization of it.

55:05.989 --> 55:12.839
So, in 1960 contraception
between married people is not

55:12.844 --> 55:13.864
legal.

55:13.860 --> 55:17.080
It was in 1965,
so partway through this drop,

55:17.077 --> 55:20.877
that it became legal but it was
used very heavily.

55:20.880 --> 55:23.820
As in China,
with the one child policy was

55:23.824 --> 55:26.344
just rampant ignoring of the
law.

55:26.340 --> 55:29.030
It was the Supreme Court case
that was fought--

55:29.030 --> 55:32.340
there was a Connecticut case,
the Planned Parenthood of

55:32.338 --> 55:34.848
Connecticut did the
contraception law,

55:34.849 --> 55:38.249
did the case that made
contraception legal for married

55:38.250 --> 55:41.970
people and it was later that
unmarried people got the right

55:41.971 --> 55:43.641
to have contraception.

55:43.639 --> 55:48.599
The birthrate drops for married
women,

55:48.599 --> 55:52.719
but for teenagers it drops much
more slowly,

55:52.719 --> 55:58.249
and that's the tradeoff between
that they're having more sex so

55:58.250 --> 56:01.780
you expect it to go up,
but they're using

56:01.782 --> 56:04.282
contraception,
so it's going down.

56:04.280 --> 56:06.560
Whereas these women,
married women at that age were

56:06.556 --> 56:09.656
having sex before this period,
so what you see is all the

56:09.661 --> 56:13.551
contraceptive effect and there's
no increase in sexual frequency

56:13.547 --> 56:15.147
to counterbalance that.

56:15.150 --> 56:19.180
This is you would expect--well
this would be--

56:19.179 --> 56:21.129
this is the full contraceptive
effect,

56:21.130 --> 56:25.590
this is the contraceptive
effect minus the increased

56:25.588 --> 56:27.248
sexuality effect.

56:27.250 --> 56:34.690


56:34.690 --> 56:37.040
We know that something like
three-quarters of sexually

56:37.041 --> 56:40.261
active teenagers,
and this is for a long time,

56:40.264 --> 56:44.274
used contraception and they're
amazingly good--

56:44.268 --> 56:45.928
they're not dumb about it at
all.

56:45.929 --> 56:49.129
They, in general,
use contraception at least as

56:49.126 --> 56:51.696
effectively as adults and in
many--

56:51.699 --> 56:56.199
in several of the studies,
they used contraception more

56:56.202 --> 56:58.372
effectively than adults.

56:58.369 --> 57:03.699
If contraception hadn't come in
at that time,

57:03.699 --> 57:07.679
you would have seen a
tremendous rise in teen

57:07.675 --> 57:10.105
pregnancy,
in teen births,

57:10.112 --> 57:13.232
whereas, in fact,
you saw a gentle,

57:13.230 --> 57:17.430
a 1% a year,
a gentle drop in teen births.

57:17.429 --> 57:22.769


57:22.768 --> 57:30.618
Cross-national studies show
quite convincingly that the

57:30.617 --> 57:34.767
drop--
that the moderation of this

57:34.766 --> 57:41.176
drop that why teen pregnancy
didn't rise when teen sex rose

57:41.181 --> 57:44.281
was due to contraception.

57:44.280 --> 57:46.160
In Canada, U.S.,
Sweden, France,

57:46.163 --> 57:48.903
Great Britain,
the age of sexual debut doesn't

57:48.896 --> 57:52.296
change very much when you go
across these countries.

57:52.300 --> 57:56.250
About 40% of the 15 to 17 year
olds have already have

57:56.246 --> 58:00.726
intercourse and this rises to
70% to 80% among 18 to 19 year

58:00.726 --> 58:01.406
olds.

58:01.409 --> 58:02.629
In fact, the U.S.

58:02.630 --> 58:06.360
had a significantly lower
percentage of girls who had

58:06.364 --> 58:10.534
intercourse in the past three
months than--at the year this

58:10.530 --> 58:12.690
was taken, say 59% in the U.S.

58:12.686 --> 58:14.406
and 79% in Sweden.

58:14.409 --> 58:16.919
So we had less sexuality than
the other countries.

58:16.920 --> 58:23.100
Even though we had a lower
amount of sexual activity,

58:23.099 --> 58:26.599
the teen pregnancy rate,
the teen birthrate,

58:26.599 --> 58:30.159
the teen sexually transmitted
disease rates were much higher,

58:30.159 --> 58:34.639
and again, if you compare the
use of contraception in Europe

58:34.637 --> 58:39.337
it's much better than here and
that explains all these problems

58:39.344 --> 58:41.094
with the sexuality.

58:41.090 --> 58:46.390
Non-use of contraception in the
United States was five times as

58:46.391 --> 58:51.691
great as that of Great Britain
and three times as great as that

58:51.692 --> 58:52.892
in Sweden.

58:52.889 --> 58:56.019
The effect is not concentrated
in lower economic groups,

58:56.018 --> 58:59.038
that's a somewhat interesting
fact,

58:59.039 --> 59:01.279
almost everything else breaks
out by economic groups,

59:01.280 --> 59:05.610
and contraception use among
teenagers doesn't vary that much

59:05.612 --> 59:08.112
among different economic groups.

59:08.110 --> 59:12.900


59:12.900 --> 59:16.280
Now--so what's the problem here?

59:16.280 --> 59:20.480
We start out that there was
or--and still there appears to

59:20.476 --> 59:23.786
be a huge problem with teen
pregnancy and--

59:23.789 --> 59:26.439
but we see that in actual fact
the data contradicts that.

59:26.440 --> 59:29.620
Teen pregnancy has been
declining rather steadily,

59:29.621 --> 59:33.651
1% a year for the last 50 years
and is now half of what it used

59:33.650 --> 59:34.300
to be.

59:34.300 --> 59:38.710


59:38.710 --> 59:42.650
There's a whole discussion,
we can discuss teenage abortion

59:42.654 --> 59:46.674
rates, but what has happened is
the disappearance of shotgun

59:46.666 --> 59:47.546
weddings.

59:47.550 --> 59:50.380
This data is pre-maritally
pregnant women,

59:50.380 --> 59:53.800
this is a somewhat wider age
range,

59:53.800 --> 59:57.330
not teenage but 15 to 29,
and what fraction got married

59:57.327 --> 59:59.937
before the birth of their first
child?

59:59.940 --> 1:00:02.360
They're pregnant before this
graph happens,

1:00:02.360 --> 1:00:05.010
sometime later they may,
or may not,

1:00:05.010 --> 1:00:06.470
get married,
what fraction of them get

1:00:06.465 --> 1:00:08.115
married before the birth of
their child?

1:00:08.119 --> 1:00:09.829
They're pregnant,
the child's born,

1:00:09.829 --> 1:00:11.689
and do they get married in
between?

1:00:11.690 --> 1:00:17.910
Traditional shotgun wedding and
here--there it is,

1:00:17.907 --> 1:00:20.317
it's getting bad.

1:00:20.320 --> 1:00:24.630
You can see it was fairly
stable for many years and then

1:00:24.630 --> 1:00:29.240
boom it just falls off,
that's white women,

1:00:29.237 --> 1:00:35.447
here's total women you can see,
Hispanic, and black women.

1:00:35.449 --> 1:00:38.619
What disappears,
it's not an issue with sexual

1:00:38.621 --> 1:00:41.371
activity it's an issue with
marriage.

1:00:41.369 --> 1:00:47.709
That the problem is that
marriage drops much faster than

1:00:47.713 --> 1:00:53.023
the teenagers or anybody else
can cope with.

1:00:53.019 --> 1:00:56.829


1:00:56.829 --> 1:00:59.479
What happens,
and here is the source of the

1:00:59.476 --> 1:01:01.596
problem,
that even though the teen

1:01:01.597 --> 1:01:04.107
birthrate during this period is
declining,

1:01:04.110 --> 1:01:07.880
the non-martial teen birthrate
is rising and that's one of the

1:01:07.880 --> 1:01:11.220
things that people always don't
distinguish between.

1:01:11.219 --> 1:01:14.599
It was this,
the non-marital teen birthrate,

1:01:14.599 --> 1:01:17.429
that was making real social
issue.

1:01:17.429 --> 1:01:21.099
It was not the total birthrate,
but the unmarried birthrate.

1:01:21.099 --> 1:01:27.039


1:01:27.039 --> 1:01:30.509
This was enough of a social
problem,

1:01:30.510 --> 1:01:33.600
but without the teen use of
contraception,

1:01:33.599 --> 1:01:37.859
the problem--remember we
thought we should have seen a

1:01:37.855 --> 1:01:41.945
doubling of teen pregnancy and
we saw a halving,

1:01:41.949 --> 1:01:44.559
a cutting in half,
so there is a factor of four

1:01:44.563 --> 1:01:47.193
difference,
this would have risen four

1:01:47.193 --> 1:01:50.863
times as fast without teenage
use of contraception.

1:01:50.860 --> 1:01:54.340
Again that's the--we started
with it--that's one of the big

1:01:54.340 --> 1:01:56.440
social issues:
Should teens be given

1:01:56.440 --> 1:01:57.520
contraception?

1:01:57.518 --> 1:02:00.198
And I think the data here shows
that,

1:02:00.199 --> 1:02:03.189
I don't make any kind of moral
statement or ethical statement,

1:02:03.190 --> 1:02:07.180
but that if they don't have it
than non-martial teen birthrate

1:02:07.175 --> 1:02:08.935
is going to be fantastic.

1:02:08.940 --> 1:02:11.780
Question, I thought somebody
raised their hand?

1:02:11.780 --> 1:02:12.610
No.

1:02:12.610 --> 1:02:19.480
Okay now you have the
reading--there's all kinds of

1:02:19.476 --> 1:02:27.986
programs that are supposed to do
something about teen pregnancy

1:02:27.992 --> 1:02:32.252
and you'll read about this.

1:02:32.250 --> 1:02:36.020
One of these is virginity
pledges, the abstinence only

1:02:36.021 --> 1:02:39.011
programs, various conservative
measures.

1:02:39.010 --> 1:02:45.910
There's now good studies of all
of these and none of them work

1:02:45.907 --> 1:02:51.447
and the information on that is
in your reading.

1:02:51.449 --> 1:02:55.679
Here is the story on--with this
drop in marriage,

1:02:55.675 --> 1:02:59.985
and this is all women,
it's not just teenagers.

1:02:59.989 --> 1:03:04.249
Look at the rise in unmarried
births.

1:03:04.250 --> 1:03:09.270
It's about a third of all
births are to unmarried women of

1:03:09.273 --> 1:03:14.653
all ages and that's continued on
in a slow rise since then.

1:03:14.650 --> 1:03:22.680
This is kind of a huge sea
change in American childbearing

1:03:22.679 --> 1:03:24.369
practices.

1:03:24.369 --> 1:03:30.229
It's going from almost always
within marriage to a very large

1:03:30.231 --> 1:03:33.261
fraction outside of marriage.

1:03:33.260 --> 1:03:39.420
Here--so this is the
birthrate--so mostly among older

1:03:39.416 --> 1:03:45.216
women, it's rising,
over 40 its low but rising.

1:03:45.219 --> 1:03:48.309
35 to 39 it's rising.

1:03:48.309 --> 1:03:51.359
30 to 34 slightly rising.

1:03:51.360 --> 1:03:55.010
25 to 29 a little bit rising.

1:03:55.010 --> 1:04:01.130
And the only group that's
having a lower birthrate are the

1:04:01.126 --> 1:04:03.376
15 to 19 year olds.

1:04:03.380 --> 1:04:08.510
You can see that their line is
definitely sloping down,

1:04:08.510 --> 1:04:14.450
so this marriage problem--this
is the change in birthrates and

1:04:14.452 --> 1:04:19.622
the only one that's having a
smaller birthrate are the

1:04:19.615 --> 1:04:20.975
teenagers.

1:04:20.980 --> 1:04:26.450
This is now the unmarried
birthrate and here you see,

1:04:26.449 --> 1:04:31.779
again 35 to 39 year old women
very much increased,

1:04:31.780 --> 1:04:35.540
again the 30 to 34--the
different ages,

1:04:35.539 --> 1:04:38.419
all the ages of women have an
increasing rate,

1:04:38.420 --> 1:04:40.630
an unmarried birthrate,
except the teenagers.

1:04:40.630 --> 1:04:44.890
Here's the 15 to 17 year olds,
they are falling down,

1:04:44.889 --> 1:04:48.199
and here this dark blue line is
18 to 19 year olds,

1:04:48.199 --> 1:04:53.749
so whether it's 15 to 19 that's
the only group in America in

1:04:53.746 --> 1:04:57.596
which unwed childbearing is
going down.

1:04:57.599 --> 1:05:00.379
Student:  Is this a
percentage or is this just a

1:05:00.375 --> 1:05:02.015
proportion, or a total number?

1:05:02.019 --> 1:05:04.799
Prof: Rate per thousand.

1:05:04.800 --> 1:05:07.790
I don't know if you can see
this, its rate per thousand,

1:05:07.789 --> 1:05:09.909
ten per 1000,20 per 1000,40 per
1000.

1:05:09.909 --> 1:05:16.069


1:05:16.070 --> 1:05:20.980
Student:  Do you know if
the programs from 15 to 18 year

1:05:20.980 --> 1:05:24.070
olds is successful at all or is
it--

1:05:24.070 --> 1:05:27.090
Prof: No,
the data has been--most of the

1:05:27.092 --> 1:05:29.592
programs work on younger kids
and--

1:05:29.590 --> 1:05:32.800
Student:  Is that why
it's not going up as much as the

1:05:32.797 --> 1:05:33.277
others?

1:05:33.280 --> 1:05:34.890
Prof: That is in debate.

1:05:34.889 --> 1:05:37.519
No, no the abstinence programs
no.

1:05:37.518 --> 1:05:39.358
There's two sets of programs
competing,

1:05:39.360 --> 1:05:42.240
one are abstinence type
programs, virginity pledges and

1:05:42.244 --> 1:05:45.294
the other is sex education
programs and you have to have a

1:05:45.291 --> 1:05:48.071
very good study to figure out
what's going on for any

1:05:48.068 --> 1:05:49.938
particular group of students.

1:05:49.940 --> 1:05:53.170
I put in your reading packet
some of the best studies of

1:05:53.168 --> 1:05:53.578
this.

1:05:53.579 --> 1:05:55.839
Here's another interesting sort
of factor,

1:05:55.840 --> 1:06:00.450
that if you break teenage
birthrates out by state in

1:06:00.454 --> 1:06:03.974
America,
the red states have the ten

1:06:03.969 --> 1:06:07.609
highest rates and they are the
south,

1:06:07.610 --> 1:06:09.660
the south belt here.

1:06:09.659 --> 1:06:13.349
The most conservative and
most--and the ones with the

1:06:13.346 --> 1:06:17.406
lowest it's New England,
New Jersey, upper Midwest,

1:06:17.411 --> 1:06:22.381
the most conservative and the
most religious parts of America

1:06:22.375 --> 1:06:26.755
are the ones that have the
highest teen birthrate.

1:06:26.760 --> 1:06:30.360
Again, you have to be careful
about over-interpreting this

1:06:30.360 --> 1:06:34.330
data because what you might--
they get married young there

1:06:34.331 --> 1:06:38.571
also, so a fair amount of this
is marital teen birthrate,

1:06:38.570 --> 1:06:41.690
and again the data isn't
readily available.

1:06:41.690 --> 1:06:44.050
At least I haven't been able to
find it--what you're worried

1:06:44.045 --> 1:06:46.275
about is the un--or you think
you're worried about is the

1:06:46.282 --> 1:06:47.442
unmarried teen birthrate.

1:06:47.440 --> 1:06:50.290
Not a lot of people--some are
worried about teen birthrate,

1:06:50.289 --> 1:06:52.839
period, because it means people
are not getting it--

1:06:52.840 --> 1:06:56.240
the teenagers are not getting
education and so forth.

1:06:56.239 --> 1:07:02.109
Like most other things that the
social practices in the more

1:07:02.108 --> 1:07:07.478
conservative regions of the
country lead to a very--

1:07:07.480 --> 1:07:14.800
a lower age of when people have
births and not surprising at

1:07:14.795 --> 1:07:15.535
all.

1:07:15.539 --> 1:07:25.909


1:07:25.909 --> 1:07:28.959
Now I want to expand this
internationally a little bit,

1:07:28.960 --> 1:07:30.770
so we've talked about America.

1:07:30.768 --> 1:07:39.718
Here is the country and this is
teenagers--

1:07:39.719 --> 1:07:44.839
who have ever had sex,
two different columns,

1:07:44.840 --> 1:07:48.310
and one column is male and one
column is female,

1:07:48.309 --> 1:07:51.409
and I cut off by mistake which
sex it was.

1:07:51.409 --> 1:07:58.959
Is it obvious which sex is
which here?

1:07:58.960 --> 1:08:03.390
The left column you'll notice
is consistently larger than the

1:08:03.387 --> 1:08:06.597
right column,
so it should be pretty easy to

1:08:06.601 --> 1:08:09.721
figure out which is male and
which is female.

1:08:09.719 --> 1:08:10.959
Student:  Male is left.

1:08:10.960 --> 1:08:13.530
Prof: Male is on the
left, how many people agree with

1:08:13.534 --> 1:08:13.844
that?

1:08:13.840 --> 1:08:16.790
How many people think it's
going to be the opposite?

1:08:16.788 --> 1:08:18.998
Why do you think it's going to
be the opposite?

1:08:19.000 --> 1:08:20.890
Student:  Because when
they're consistently get married

1:08:20.886 --> 1:08:22.206
and have--
Prof: What?

1:08:22.210 --> 1:08:23.850
Student:  Women are
going to consistently get

1:08:23.854 --> 1:08:25.404
married and have sex,
whereas men in a polygamous

1:08:25.404 --> 1:08:26.634
society might have to wait
longer.

1:08:26.630 --> 1:08:29.550
Prof: Right,
exactly right.

1:08:29.550 --> 1:08:32.010
Here it is, the first column is
indeed women,

1:08:32.012 --> 1:08:35.152
so you see now the point is
very different considerations

1:08:35.148 --> 1:08:35.818
come in.

1:08:35.819 --> 1:08:40.269
This is all an effect of age at
marriage,

1:08:40.270 --> 1:08:44.130
and so here is the complete
graph as it was published,

1:08:44.130 --> 1:08:49.290
and notice the fraction of
teenage men that are in union,

1:08:49.289 --> 1:08:50.389
almost none.

1:08:50.390 --> 1:08:55.480
Remember we talked about that,
that the old men keep the young

1:08:55.479 --> 1:08:59.889
guys from getting married,
and these are about 25% across

1:08:59.893 --> 1:09:03.353
the countries are in union with
men who are older,

1:09:03.350 --> 1:09:07.270
therefore they've had more sex
than the young males who have

1:09:07.273 --> 1:09:09.803
not had the opportunity to have
sex.

1:09:09.800 --> 1:09:13.230
So this is part of what I've
described before about the power

1:09:13.225 --> 1:09:15.335
structure and the money
structure,

1:09:15.340 --> 1:09:20.330
that the old men keep the young
men in a kind of a state of

1:09:20.332 --> 1:09:24.382
frustration and the females have
sex earlier.

1:09:24.380 --> 1:09:31.950


1:09:31.948 --> 1:09:36.628
Now you can look at different
countries and a lot of people

1:09:36.632 --> 1:09:40.102
again,
this discussion of sexuality is

1:09:40.099 --> 1:09:45.399
very often tied in with ideas of
religious morals and you can

1:09:45.402 --> 1:09:49.062
look at Ireland,
you can look at religion,

1:09:49.060 --> 1:09:53.680
you can look around the world
at countries that have different

1:09:53.676 --> 1:09:58.056
religions and one of the most
Catholic countries is Ireland

1:09:58.064 --> 1:10:02.834
and more than half of all babies
are born to mothers under 25 so

1:10:02.829 --> 1:10:07.709
they have a low age of birth,
and about half of those are

1:10:07.712 --> 1:10:09.722
born outside of marriage.

1:10:09.720 --> 1:10:12.720
If half your babies are born
before you're 25 and half of

1:10:12.722 --> 1:10:15.782
those are illegitimate that
means that all the babies,

1:10:15.779 --> 1:10:17.809
just from the young women
having babies,

1:10:17.810 --> 1:10:20.540
that's 25% of your total babies
are illegitimate.

1:10:20.538 --> 1:10:26.188
When you add in the
illegitimacy of children born to

1:10:26.192 --> 1:10:32.842
women over 25 then it--the Irish
comes to equal or exceed the

1:10:32.841 --> 1:10:33.281
U.S.

1:10:33.284 --> 1:10:36.504
rate of about one-third.

1:10:36.500 --> 1:10:40.480
If you compare the Irish
illegitimacy rate to white

1:10:40.476 --> 1:10:43.176
American women,
which is in some sense the

1:10:43.175 --> 1:10:46.625
proper comparison group,
the Irish rate's way higher,

1:10:46.627 --> 1:10:49.827
about 50% higher than the
American rate.

1:10:49.828 --> 1:10:52.528
Now you go to the other side,
New Zealand is an old fashion

1:10:52.530 --> 1:10:53.510
Protestant country.

1:10:53.510 --> 1:10:59.670
It has the--a very retro
feeling when you visit it.

1:10:59.670 --> 1:11:05.870
She was--you've been there
yes--they--38% of all births in

1:11:05.869 --> 1:11:09.459
New Zealand are out of wedlock.

1:11:09.460 --> 1:11:14.400
In England it's nearly 40% of
births and they have the same

1:11:14.402 --> 1:11:17.072
problem,
a third of marriages end in

1:11:17.072 --> 1:11:20.732
divorce and ever-increasing
numbers of people see marriage

1:11:20.729 --> 1:11:23.809
as just an irrelevant thing and
don't bother.

1:11:23.810 --> 1:11:27.250
In Japan, I think I gave you
these things,

1:11:27.252 --> 1:11:31.622
26% of first births are to
women who conceived before

1:11:31.618 --> 1:11:32.708
marriage.

1:11:32.710 --> 1:11:36.910


1:11:36.908 --> 1:11:38.818
In Japan, and I guess I
mentioned this before;

1:11:38.819 --> 1:11:42.619
they have such a high rate of
abortion that you can't tell

1:11:42.618 --> 1:11:45.618
very much from the actual
childbirth rates.

1:11:45.618 --> 1:11:48.698
We're coming to the end,
we are at the end,

1:11:48.703 --> 1:11:50.983
and there's lots more to say.

1:11:50.979 --> 1:11:53.269
Let me tell you one more thing.

1:11:53.270 --> 1:11:55.670
The whole pattern of
childbearing is changing

1:11:55.670 --> 1:11:58.290
drastically, especially in
poorer communities.

1:11:58.288 --> 1:12:01.958
It's very difficult for poor
people to bring up children

1:12:01.960 --> 1:12:04.230
because they just have no money.

1:12:04.229 --> 1:12:07.529
What's happening is who
actually brings up,

1:12:07.529 --> 1:12:10.749
say, largely black children in
America?

1:12:10.750 --> 1:12:12.700
Is it the mothers?

1:12:12.698 --> 1:12:15.308
It's the grandmother,
a very common pattern.

1:12:15.310 --> 1:12:19.940
I don't know if--it's that the
grandmothers are bringing up the

1:12:19.944 --> 1:12:24.284
children and we get up--the
white dominant group gets upset

1:12:24.282 --> 1:12:25.182
by this.

1:12:25.180 --> 1:12:28.130
But actually it's a split
between the biological act of

1:12:28.131 --> 1:12:31.631
parenting and the psychological
and economic act of parenting.

1:12:31.630 --> 1:12:34.520
The kids get married--get
pregnant quite young,

1:12:34.518 --> 1:12:37.528
but they're probably
biologically very capable of

1:12:37.532 --> 1:12:40.862
pregnancy at the ages at which
they get pregnant.

1:12:40.859 --> 1:12:42.909
In some sense,
from a biological point of

1:12:42.908 --> 1:12:45.148
view,
getting pregnant in your late

1:12:45.146 --> 1:12:47.476
teenage maybe a biological
optimum,

1:12:47.479 --> 1:12:49.599
but they are not
psychologically prepared to be a

1:12:49.595 --> 1:12:51.845
parent and they're not
economically prepared to be a

1:12:51.845 --> 1:12:52.325
parent.

1:12:52.328 --> 1:12:56.298
Who is most stable
psychologically is probably the

1:12:56.300 --> 1:12:58.840
mother's mother,
the grandmother,

1:12:58.841 --> 1:13:02.721
who will be 35 or 40 in a time
when you're sort of more or less

1:13:02.720 --> 1:13:05.330
emotionally stable,
you haven't gotten into old age

1:13:05.332 --> 1:13:06.752
yet,
and whatever degree of economic

1:13:06.746 --> 1:13:09.176
stability you're going to have,
which is never going to be very

1:13:09.177 --> 1:13:12.477
great,
is strongest at that age.

1:13:12.479 --> 1:13:16.639
In a sense, it's a very
rational kind of split that you

1:13:16.637 --> 1:13:18.407
do in your lifecycle.

1:13:18.408 --> 1:13:20.598
You do your biological
reproduction at the age when

1:13:20.595 --> 1:13:23.685
you're most capable of that,
and, at a later stage,

1:13:23.693 --> 1:13:28.133
when you're most psychically
and economically capable,

1:13:28.130 --> 1:13:31.220
you do your psychological and
economic parenting.

1:13:31.220 --> 1:13:35.380
There's also this and because
of that, there's been big

1:13:35.381 --> 1:13:38.081
debates in America about
welfare.

1:13:38.078 --> 1:13:41.918
Does welfare encourage
illegitimate births and they go

1:13:41.917 --> 1:13:43.437
on the public dole.

1:13:43.439 --> 1:13:46.649
This is especially discussed,
either openly or covertly,

1:13:46.645 --> 1:13:50.315
always referring to poor people
and often to minority people.

1:13:50.319 --> 1:13:52.579
Well, if you actually look at
the economics,

1:13:52.582 --> 1:13:55.742
the amount that women get on
welfare is really very small.

1:13:55.738 --> 1:13:58.918
Where is the major--And not
enough to allow you to stay

1:13:58.922 --> 1:14:00.812
alive and bring up your child.

1:14:00.810 --> 1:14:03.200
Where is the economic
sustenance coming from?

1:14:03.198 --> 1:14:04.998
It's coming from the
grandmother.

1:14:05.000 --> 1:14:07.120
It's the grandmother,
the young girl and certainly

1:14:07.115 --> 1:14:09.185
the baby will often live with
the grandmother.

1:14:09.189 --> 1:14:11.259
She pays the rent,
she has a job.

1:14:11.260 --> 1:14:13.920
The welfare is not coming from
the government,

1:14:13.920 --> 1:14:15.340
that's a small amount.

1:14:15.340 --> 1:14:17.410
The welfare is coming from the
grandmother.

1:14:17.408 --> 1:14:22.328
There is welfare involved but
it's a within-the-family kind of

1:14:22.332 --> 1:14:23.142
welfare.

1:14:23.140 --> 1:14:27.620
It's really this system of
having the grandmother take care

1:14:27.622 --> 1:14:32.032
of the kids and economically
support the kids that is what

1:14:32.027 --> 1:14:36.427
enables a large degree of unwed
teen pregnancy in poor and

1:14:36.432 --> 1:14:38.522
minority communities.

1:14:38.520 --> 1:14:43.670
Okay we will--from that lecture
we will go on to abortion next

1:14:43.668 --> 1:14:44.258
time.

1:14:44.260 --> 1:14:50.000