WEBVTT

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Prof: Anybody here
happen to be from Korea?

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Are you born there?

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Student: Yes
Prof: Are you from Seoul?

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Student:  Yeah.

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Prof: You may know about
this, okay.

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There's a--do you know about
the oldest tree in Seoul?

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Student: No.

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Prof: This is the oldest
tree in Seoul.

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It's a Gingko tree,
and it's supposed to be 840

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years old, that's a really old
tree and it's venerated by the

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residents.

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It's kind of a holy sacred tree
and they bring fruit,

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they bring other offerings once
a year and pray,

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among other things,
for their safety.

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Its real advantage is that it
helps pregnant women to have a

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boy child and so this is a very
important tree.

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Do you know about this tree?

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Student:  No.

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Prof: No.

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Student:  But I've heard
about Gingko trees and how they

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have to do with fertility and
stuff.

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Prof: Yes,
okay Ginkgo is one of the few

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kinds of trees that have male
and female sex.

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Most trees are hermaphrodite,
have both male and female sex.

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Anyway, it turns out they ran
into a problem with this tree

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because two apartment buildings
were interfering with the trees

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roots as the tree spread its
roots.

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What happens--so the district
government spent $4.3 million

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dollars to take down the
apartment buildings.

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So it just goes to show you the
importance and the political

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acceptability,
the cultural acceptability of

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son preference.

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It's a very,
very big factor in the world.

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The sex ratio,
is a very important biological

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factor, if we have time at the
end I'll tell you a good bit

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about it.

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Just to show you that it's very
well controlled biologically,

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this is one of several theories
about how the sex ratio in

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humans gets to be what it is.

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The sperms are 50/50.

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There's 100 male sperms to 100
female sperms and that's because

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the sex is determined by the
father and the father has one X

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and one Y,
and when they split to go into

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separate sperms one gets an X,
one gets a Y,

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that's even.

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By the second month of
gestation, so this is still in

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the mother's womb,
apparently a huge fraction of

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about one-third of the male
fetuses have died,

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leaving--I'm sorry the female
fetuses have died because now

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it's a high male ratio.

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Then as time goes on the male
fetuses start to die and when

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you end up, you get 106 at birth
all over the world unless people

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are messing with it.

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There's about 106 male births
to every 100 female births.

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This is a very,
very fixed number,

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so for instance,
in the United States in 1969

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there were 105.3 males born per
100 females;

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1995 30 something years later
104.9, so difference of .4.

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That number really does not
vary except basically between

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105 and 106.

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It's a very, very stable number.

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Given that, you can look at
some parts of the world and see

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something like this.

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This is again the sex ratio and
you can look over time,

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1972 to 1992 a 20 year span and
here is Japan where they started

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a little bit of X--
here's the numbers you should

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expect,
somewhere in this range.

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They have somewhat of an excess
of boys but very minor and than

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during this period of time Japan
came down to almost exactly that

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106 number.

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Look at what's going on in
China, up to 113 or so,

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which means basically seven out
of every 100 girls are being

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done away with 7%.

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That's not anywhere near the
worst case.

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What do you think is the cause
of this?

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Student:  Mitochondrial
DNA.

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Prof: Mitochondrial DNA?

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Student:
>

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mitochondrial DNA can choose to
eliminate male fetuses.

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Prof: So you think it's
a very long term evolutionary--

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what she's saying is she
thinks--there's stuff that--

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the Y--the sperm--the Y
chromosome has very few genes,

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the X chromosome has many genes.

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There looks like there's a long
evolutionary process by which

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genes are getting eliminated on
the Y,

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and eventually the Y will then
have nothing on it and

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disappear.

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This is much too short a time,
we're talking ten years,

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evolution just doesn't happen
in ten years but it's a good

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thought.

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Student:  Does it have
something to do with the

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implementation of the one child
policy;

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people wanting sons as opposed
to daughters.

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Prof: Very good.

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This is the most usual answer:
the one child policy in China.

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This is China remember and the
one child policy,

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so people have heard of the one
child policy and I'm going to

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give a lecture on it.

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Does that sound like a good
hypothesis to you?

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But just saying it doesn't make
it true, so what else did--

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Student:  This is at
birth.

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Prof: This is at birth.

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Student:  How could
you--even if you wanted sons I

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presume that the greatest way to
manage that would through

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infanticide and you can't do
that until after birth.

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Prof: Very good idea.

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What she says is look this is
at birth.

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Students:
>

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Prof: Good,
I'm glad all this discussion.

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Let's notice one other thing.

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One child policy,
when does the one child policy

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start?

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We'll come back to these
explanations;

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they're all good.

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Anybody know?

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Guess what, about 1979,1980.

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When does this take off?

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That looks like now we've got
at least a second piece of

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evidence that it's--the time
sequence fits very nicely with

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the one child policy.

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How can we check that?

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We're still--we have to be very
skeptical about everything that

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anyone tells you;
that's the scientific attitude.

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Anything anybody tells you,
politics,

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science, religion,
economics, try to sell you

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something,
immediate gut response is

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'that's nonsense prove it to
me.'

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I'm not convinced yet so what
else might you do?

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Student:  If you can
find data on abortions.

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Prof: You could find
data on abortions,

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good.

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We'll look at that when we talk
about China.

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We might look at other
countries that don't have the

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one child policy.

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Here's another country,
this is India,

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and you have--remember the
Chinese--and this is a somewhat

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different data set.

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This is not at birth but the
total population which is less

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extreme,
but a comparable number for

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China would be here,
so India is more extreme than

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China.

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Student:  India is a bad
example because bride prices are

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so high that they
>

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Prof: There are reasons,
other reasons in India,

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there's clearly reasons all
around and they may be different

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in different places but the main
hypothesis that we are working

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on it and come back to it,
it's very important.

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The main hypothesis that we're
working on is that it's one

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child policy in China.

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Now we see that China is not
particularly extreme say

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compared to India.

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It depends on what year you
look and exactly what statistic

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you look at.

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It's really in the same
ballpark with India.

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Now we have to say that well,
it's probably not one child

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policy.

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What's our next hypothesis?

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We've heard a different one for
China.

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India has bride price but than
if you start with India and say

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that, China doesn't have bride
price;

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they have dowry,
they may have in fact the

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opposite.

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What about--
Student:  Is it sex

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selective abortion?

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Prof: That's something,
but why are the women doing it?

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Poverty, that's the usual thing
when you speak of India and

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China.

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In these years they were still
very--they're still quite poor

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but it was poverty.

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How does that strike you as a
hypothesis for this?

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Or part of it,
these things are multi-causal.

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Student:  China's
economy has been taking off but

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it's the--ratios are still going
up.

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Prof: Well the only--
I'm going to show you that data

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but I only showed you the data
up to 1990,

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1992 so I haven't--I'm going to
show you that.

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Again we can go to an
international comparison if we

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want to see if poverty is at the
root of this,

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and what are we looking at
here?

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Korea, South Korea.

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Korea is not a poor country and
yet they're just as bad,

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in fact a little bit more
extreme than China at this time.

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We really have quite a
conundrum that we can give

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particular explanations for each
place but they're maybe going to

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be different.

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Student:  Is it maybe
just population growth in

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general?

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Prof: It could be
population growth in general,

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that's certainly true of all of
the three countries.

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That there's something about
the density of population;

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hard to prove since India and
China have been very crowded for

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a very long time and Korea is
also crowded but not as

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extremely as China and India.

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Not--the greatest sex ratio is
in South Korea,

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which is, as you heard,
is not poor and by 2010 there

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will be a 20% deficit in the
marriage age,

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there will be a 20% deficit of
females in Korea which is quite

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high and that's done away with.

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The poverty thing,
the economic thing does not

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work between countries,
and even if you look,

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I'll show you a little bit
later,

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there's big regional variations
within each country but it

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doesn't go with economics at
all.

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In China, in Guangdong,
where everything you're wearing

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and everything you play with,
including probably this is made

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somewhere in Guangdong Province
probably.

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It's one of the richer places
in China and the sex ratio there

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is 130 to 100,
something I've showed you 12 to

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14,
in that province it goes up to

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130 and parts of that province--
so of course even within a

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province there's different
places,

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they can go up to 144 to 100,
so something like a third of

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the girls are done away with.

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Student:  Provinces with
such a skewed sex ratio,

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do they end up paying dowry or
these bride prices because

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females are so rare?

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Prof: No bride price
doesn't happen in either China

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or India;
bride price,

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you remember,
is when the man's family gives

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something to the girl or the
girl's family,

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dowry is the opposite and dowry
is common in India and really it

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was--
communists got rid of it,

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any vestige of that in China so
that's not the case.

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In India the same thing,
the states in New Delhi and

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Haryana, which are the richer
places there,

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have more extreme sex ratios
then poor places.

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There's--in Delhi there's 861
females per 1,000 males at birth

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and so as time goes on,
as you see, the sex ratios are

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getting worse.

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The answer to our problem of
what is causing--what caused

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things to change at this point
in time is what someone here

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said.

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What did someone say,
something that would have--

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it wasn't the--is the one child
policy happened at this time but

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something else happened in both
India,

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and China, and Korea.

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Student:  Did it have to
do with technology in terms of--

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Prof: It has to do with
technology.

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Student:  for sex
selection prior to birth.

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Prof: For knowing the
sex before birth and what--

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Student:
>

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Prof: What is the
technology that's commonly used?

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Student:  Ultrasound.

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Prof: Ultrasound,
that at that time ultrasound

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came in and became rather
inexpensive and available.

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The two ways of doing it are
amniocentesis,

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which is somewhat difficult
medically and quite expensive,

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but ultrasound you don't need
an awful lot of training,

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the equipment is not terribly
expensive.

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It costs I think about $14 in
India, in this period of time,

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to get an ultrasound test of
what your fetus was.

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In one of the counties in
China, for instance,

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they started doing ultrasound,
and what happened was the first

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child,
and I'll show you some data,

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that was okay if it was a girl.

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But, if the second--if they had
a first girl and the second

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child was also a girl,
then 92% of the time the girls

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would be aborted.

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I think in your reading it
talks about in India--they

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looked at 8,000 serial abortions
in a particular hospital and

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7,999 were females.

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One was a male and that was
probably a mistake they just

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read--didn't read the ultrasound
right, it's not always easy to

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do it.

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What's happening is that,
in India and in China it's

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illegal in both places,
but they have even sidewalk

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clinics that you can just go and
get a little ultrasound.

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How many of you have had some
sort of ultrasound?

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Yeah it's very--they take a
little probe about that long and

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this and just run it over you
and get a picture on a TV screen

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and you know,
whatever, your heart,

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or your lungs,
or your baby,

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whatever is going on.

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That's what's going on,
it's the cheap ultrasound.

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Doctors in a lot of
places--doctors--

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it's so fast to do this,
it's so cheap,

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it doesn't take much skill,
that in a lot of places doctors

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are just giving up all the rest
of their practice and just doing

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ultrasound.

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It's sort of like liposuction
here or something.

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It's easy and cheap and they
make a lot of women--a lot of

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money with this.

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The head of the Women's
Association in India says,

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"No one wants girls;
if the test says a girl then

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the pregnant woman will have an
abortion."

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Someone else also mentioned
this I think,

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that the final sex ratio not at
birth as we said,

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the hint as one of you picked
out, the fact that this is at

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birth means it's not an
infanticide issue.

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This is something done before
birth,

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the only thing you can do
before birth is sex selective

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abortion so it's clearly the
mechanism of this and the timing

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is clearly the introduction of
ultrasound.

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The total sex ratio of the
countries hasn't changed all

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that much.

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Then, in China we have pretty
good data and traditionally

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where-ever one has data there
has been a dearth of about 10%

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to 25% of girls from--
they have data back to the

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1700s, that's pretty decent.

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Back then it was infanticide so
what you're really seeing is a

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change of method that the
society is going from an

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infanticide control of the sex
ratio to an ultrasound and sex

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selective abortion control of
the sex ratio.

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Apparently the desire and the
cultural desire for males hasn't

16:57.697 --> 17:02.367
changed all that much,
but technology has changed what

17:02.365 --> 17:05.575
they do and to most people's
mind--

17:05.578 --> 17:11.978
an abortion is a better thing
than an infanticide but you can

17:11.983 --> 17:15.723
make up your own mind about
that.

17:15.720 --> 17:22.030
Let me give you some more data
on the various questions that

17:22.028 --> 17:24.058
you've all asked.

17:24.058 --> 17:28.108
One is an update in time so
that particular slide stopped

17:28.108 --> 17:32.518
in--in that particular data set
stopped in 1992 and this picks

17:32.519 --> 17:34.399
up a little bit later.

17:34.400 --> 17:36.660
Here is again India,
five states there,

17:36.663 --> 17:40.363
and in the most extreme states,
which again are the richest not

17:40.355 --> 17:41.305
the poorest.

17:41.308 --> 17:44.578
This is of course--these are
rich states, this is southern

17:44.578 --> 17:47.958
states, there are all these
different reasons and we'll come

17:47.962 --> 17:49.342
to that in a moment.

17:49.338 --> 17:56.998
Here we saw ratios of 114 or so
and now they've gone up to 129

17:56.998 --> 18:03.708
and slowly getting better,
a little bit better with time

18:03.711 --> 18:07.631
out to the last census in 2006
data.

18:07.630 --> 18:13.960
These are two well off
provinces and they are in

18:13.955 --> 18:19.455
extreme southern India is--
in North India they speak

18:19.460 --> 18:22.020
Hindi--mostly Hindi related
languages,

18:22.019 --> 18:25.769
in the south Dravidian related
languages.

18:25.769 --> 18:28.709
The Muslim invasions didn't
quite reach the south of India,

18:28.705 --> 18:31.385
a lot of differences between
north and south India.

18:31.390 --> 18:34.220
In terms of demography or a
culture, almost anything,

18:34.221 --> 18:36.021
it's crazy to talk about India.

18:36.019 --> 18:38.719
You cannot talk about India;
it's so diverse.

18:38.720 --> 18:42.330
China, they've convinced the
people that they're one culture,

18:42.326 --> 18:44.426
but in India that's not the
case.

18:44.430 --> 18:48.870
So you really have to compare
this as a kind of--these two

18:48.866 --> 18:53.456
states as one kind of country
and they are very close to the

18:53.460 --> 18:54.550
106 level.

18:54.548 --> 18:58.118
This is--and also,
just weirdly in most places,

18:58.118 --> 19:01.648
it's the number of boys to
girls, but in India the way they

19:01.651 --> 19:05.671
define sex ratio is the opposite
so I've translated into these--

19:05.670 --> 19:09.790
these are the numbers that are
comparable to what you've been

19:09.791 --> 19:10.481
hearing.

19:10.480 --> 19:14.570
That's India.

19:14.568 --> 19:17.658
Here is China,
and again it has gone more

19:17.659 --> 19:22.139
extreme, so we stopped here
about 1992 in the 112 range.

19:22.140 --> 19:28.620
This is at birth,
age zero, so we're looking at

19:28.617 --> 19:34.897
this line that's here,
and that has now gone up to 118

19:34.897 --> 19:37.017
or 119,
the sex ratio at birth,

19:37.017 --> 19:39.077
and then as the child grows
older,

19:39.078 --> 19:42.238
as the set of children that
you're counting grows older,

19:42.240 --> 19:49.480
the sex ratio gets more and
more skewed as time goes on and

19:49.480 --> 19:54.100
we'll look at that in a little
bit.

19:54.099 --> 19:56.169
It is very diverse.

19:56.170 --> 19:58.950
I mentioned this,
very diverse by province,

19:58.950 --> 20:01.940
here again is India,
so Kerala as I mentioned to

20:01.943 --> 20:03.843
you,
they're very poor,

20:03.842 --> 20:06.992
Kerala is a very poor state in
India,

20:06.990 --> 20:09.600
one of the poorest,
but they had a communist

20:09.602 --> 20:12.702
government for a long time and
very matriarchal,

20:12.700 --> 20:16.820
their traditional system
was--not matriarchal,

20:16.818 --> 20:19.188
matrilineal so women have more
power.

20:19.190 --> 20:24.200
For a lot of reasons Kerala has
been doing very well on social--

20:24.200 --> 20:26.850
indicators of social progress
and look at it's--

20:26.848 --> 20:33.428
this is child mortality from
zero to five through the first

20:33.428 --> 20:35.468
five years here.

20:35.470 --> 20:45.140
Males 6 per 1,000 male death;
4.5 females, very low deaths;

20:45.140 --> 20:51.300
compare that to Bihar ,
a very poor state where 50 or

20:51.301 --> 20:54.741
60, up to 70 almost deaths.

20:54.740 --> 21:01.960
It's a factor of 10 or 15 for
females, the difference between

21:01.960 --> 21:08.700
different states in India and
the same thing in China.

21:08.700 --> 21:18.530
Here is--what I wanted to show
you about that slide was--well

21:18.525 --> 21:22.615
forget it for a minute.

21:22.618 --> 21:25.508
This is China and you have
again very different--

21:25.509 --> 21:29.589
this is sex ratio at birth,
SRB, sex ratio at birth and

21:29.586 --> 21:32.526
over different periods of time
1982,

21:32.528 --> 21:37.718
1990 and so forth--notice in
between the green which is a

21:37.717 --> 21:40.497
normal ratio,
even bias toward females,

21:40.502 --> 21:42.592
this is almost within the
normal range.

21:42.588 --> 21:46.958
This would be bias toward
females and Tibet,

21:46.960 --> 21:51.790
the far western provinces are
even normal or even bias toward

21:51.791 --> 21:56.461
females and that is a cultural
difference because these are

21:56.462 --> 22:00.652
Muslim provinces and the Koran
forbids the killing of

22:00.650 --> 22:04.520
daughters,
so Muslim countries in general

22:04.519 --> 22:08.019
do not have these very skewed
sex ratios.

22:08.019 --> 22:11.589
Tibet of course is Buddhist and
they also don't do this,

22:11.588 --> 22:15.818
but in the Han regions,
the heartland of China,

22:15.818 --> 22:21.638
especially around 2000,2005 a
very high ratio 120 to 138 and

22:21.644 --> 22:27.584
is changing a little bit slowly,
so as time goes on you see they

22:27.584 --> 22:30.714
go from the 112 that we talked
about,

22:30.710 --> 22:34.640
the blue regions they are
being--disappearing and you're

22:34.644 --> 22:38.154
getting a more extreme situation
here in China.

22:38.150 --> 22:44.080
Again you can pick out;
depending on if you look at

22:44.076 --> 22:50.936
more culturally homogenous
regions, you get either very low

22:50.941 --> 22:54.731
numbers or very high numbers.

22:54.730 --> 22:58.870
Now here's another thing which
I mentioned, it depends terribly

22:58.865 --> 23:01.865
much on parity,
how many children they already

23:01.868 --> 23:02.468
have.

23:02.470 --> 23:05.350
For a first birth,
this is China,

23:05.346 --> 23:09.836
and going out to the year 2000
and this is the--

23:09.838 --> 23:17.668
this is parity here and this is
the different censuses so the

23:17.673 --> 23:25.383
latest census 2005 I think is
this census here and for first

23:25.377 --> 23:29.697
birth it's 107--
it's pretty normal,

23:29.701 --> 23:35.021
a little bit elevated but by
second birth it goes enormously

23:35.015 --> 23:39.875
up and you're into like 140 or a
prior census 150,

23:39.880 --> 23:42.740
so a 50% difference in boys and
girls,

23:42.740 --> 23:46.310
and that extreme there is the
one child policy is pushing that

23:46.314 --> 23:50.444
because they're only allowed--
we'll talk a lot about that.

23:50.440 --> 23:53.750
This is not really true anymore
but in principle they're allowed

23:53.752 --> 23:56.812
only one child,
so you get these very high

23:56.807 --> 24:00.127
ratios here and then by three
children,

24:00.130 --> 24:06.310
four or five children,
the sex ratio is enormous.

24:06.308 --> 24:09.388
You may sort of have a little
thing in your mind,

24:09.390 --> 24:12.590
wait a minute one child policy,
and here they're having one

24:12.592 --> 24:13.772
child,
they're have two children,

24:13.766 --> 24:15.766
they're having three children,
they're having four children,

24:15.769 --> 24:20.079
they're having five children,
what's going on and we're going

24:20.077 --> 24:22.047
to talk about that.

24:22.048 --> 24:26.758
Here is--and again you don't
want to nail this too hard to

24:26.759 --> 24:31.469
the one child policy because
here is South Korea and again

24:31.468 --> 24:35.928
this is all old-time but look
what it goes up to,

24:35.930 --> 24:36.980
the same thing.

24:36.980 --> 24:40.640
You look at the most recent
numbers on this graph and for

24:40.644 --> 24:43.334
first birth it's quite a normal
ratio,

24:43.328 --> 24:46.638
second birth it gets bigger,
by third birth it's bigger than

24:46.638 --> 24:50.098
anything we see in China,
and by fourth birth its way,

24:50.103 --> 24:51.323
way up, over 237.

24:51.318 --> 24:56.458
We saw about 160 or something
in China on the previous slide.

24:56.460 --> 25:00.830
Again, Korea,
no one child policy,

25:00.829 --> 25:06.259
no government control of
fertility at all,

25:06.259 --> 25:12.219
and yet they are more extreme
than China.

25:12.220 --> 25:20.800
At birth, the genetic
factor--boys have an X and a Y

25:20.796 --> 25:26.846
chromosome, and girls have two
Xs.

25:26.848 --> 25:29.868
Humans, as well as every other
animal, carry a lot of

25:29.867 --> 25:33.177
deleterious or even lethal
mutations, but you have them on

25:33.175 --> 25:34.565
only one chromosome.

25:34.568 --> 25:37.998
The other chromosome will
have--in general will have a

25:38.000 --> 25:41.820
normal copy of the gene and for
almost every gene one normal

25:41.818 --> 25:45.118
chromosome makes enough of the
proper protein,

25:45.118 --> 25:46.408
and you're alive,
you're fine,

25:46.409 --> 25:48.769
you don't even notice that
you've got this deleterious

25:48.765 --> 25:49.605
mutation there.

25:49.608 --> 25:52.678
It's only when you get a
mutation from both parents that

25:52.678 --> 25:54.458
it becomes--
it's homozygous,

25:54.460 --> 25:58.210
you're getting the deleterious
mutation with both parents,

25:58.210 --> 26:00.490
than the person is sick.

26:00.490 --> 26:04.220
That works for all the
chromosomes except for the sex

26:04.218 --> 26:05.148
chromosome.

26:05.150 --> 26:07.990
A female has two Xs so this
still holds for her.

26:07.990 --> 26:12.060
She's got to be really unlucky
and get bad copies from both

26:12.057 --> 26:13.457
mother and father.

26:13.460 --> 26:17.430
A male has one X and the Y with
almost nothing on it,

26:17.432 --> 26:20.032
so if he gets a bad X he's
sick;

26:20.029 --> 26:22.669
so males are weaker.

26:22.670 --> 26:27.130
One of the thoughts about why
106 males are born for every 100

26:27.133 --> 26:31.743
females is that as time goes on
those males die during childhood

26:31.741 --> 26:35.991
because they are genetically
weaker and eventually it evens

26:35.986 --> 26:37.226
out to 100.

26:37.230 --> 26:41.390
There's good evolutionary
reasons why evolution pushes a

26:41.392 --> 26:46.162
sexually reproducing species to
100 males and 100 females and we

26:46.160 --> 26:48.810
can go into that later perhaps.

26:48.808 --> 26:52.398
You're seeing that--this is at
birth, right around birth which

26:52.404 --> 26:55.534
is still genetic reasons,
and this is all of India.

26:55.529 --> 26:59.149
You see that now the male
deaths are higher than the

26:59.150 --> 26:59.860
females.

26:59.858 --> 27:04.578
This is a sign of the genetic
weakness of males at birth.

27:04.578 --> 27:10.358
When you break that down by
state, every single state 54:40,

27:10.358 --> 27:15.818
there's more male deaths 71:68,
so what do we have--

27:15.818 --> 27:22.088
one of the Punjab which had a
high pro-male ratio but at birth

27:22.092 --> 27:26.722
there's more male death than
female death,

27:26.720 --> 27:30.080
so that's a biological
phenomenon;

27:30.079 --> 27:31.329
that continues.

27:31.329 --> 27:41.009


27:41.009 --> 27:45.699
If you look later to child
mortality,

27:45.700 --> 27:48.240
now we're done with the birth
mortality,

27:48.240 --> 27:51.340
we're done with sex selective
abortion,

27:51.338 --> 27:55.698
that the sex selective abortion
itself changes the sex ratio but

27:55.695 --> 27:57.325
then,
even after that,

27:57.327 --> 27:59.347
the sex ratio keeps changing.

27:59.348 --> 28:03.638
Here again is in the first five
years after birth and notice

28:03.643 --> 28:08.013
again in Kerala where they don't
have this sex selective--

28:08.009 --> 28:09.829
this sex choice and I showed
you this,

28:09.829 --> 28:12.399
more males die than females.

28:12.400 --> 28:15.050
That's again the normal
biological issue,

28:15.048 --> 28:17.978
but in every other state,
females are--

28:17.980 --> 28:19.960
this is two and a half times as
much,

28:19.960 --> 28:25.340
this is four times as much
female mortality,

28:25.338 --> 28:28.358
one and a half times as much,
more than twice as much,

28:28.358 --> 28:32.128
twice as much,
half again as much.

28:32.130 --> 28:35.990
Then, in all the states of
India, with the exception of

28:35.987 --> 28:40.057
Kerala, there's an excess female
mortality after birth.

28:40.058 --> 28:43.118
That's counter-biological,
and what that is,

28:43.124 --> 28:47.404
is basically some infanticide,
but largely female neglect.

28:47.400 --> 28:49.900
They get less food,
they get less good food,

28:49.900 --> 28:52.190
they get sick,
they get taken to the doctor

28:52.193 --> 28:54.553
less often,
if medicines are required they

28:54.548 --> 28:55.818
don't get it very well.

28:55.818 --> 29:03.008
So you see this after birth
reduction in females also.

29:03.009 --> 29:12.159
The problem just keeps
happening.

29:12.160 --> 29:18.580
This issue of the loss of
females in a population is a

29:18.580 --> 29:21.490
very large phenomenon.

29:21.490 --> 29:24.450
Statistics--well from this data
you can make fairly decent

29:24.452 --> 29:27.002
statistics for places where this
is collected,

29:27.000 --> 29:29.600
so in India alone,
there's supposed to be

29:29.596 --> 29:32.386
something like 23 million women
missing,

29:32.390 --> 29:34.980
so add all this up and you get
23 million.

29:34.980 --> 29:40.830
In the world the--somewhere
between an estimate and a

29:40.830 --> 29:45.670
guesstimate is 100 million
missing women.

29:45.670 --> 29:48.900
You could say when you look
deeper,

29:48.900 --> 29:50.230
more deeply,
we have the sort of the

29:50.234 --> 29:53.614
proximate cause,
people are using sex selective

29:53.609 --> 29:58.999
abortion but we haven't touched
much on the question of why do

29:58.999 --> 30:01.119
they want to do that.

30:01.118 --> 30:03.078
You can just say it's
traditional.

30:03.078 --> 30:06.068
And I hear a lot of discussions
that say that and this is true.

30:06.068 --> 30:10.278
In India's first national
census, which is 1871,

30:10.279 --> 30:15.389
there were 98 million males but
only 91.5 million females,

30:15.386 --> 30:19.236
already 6% of the females were
missing.

30:19.240 --> 30:21.860
Whereas, in a population which
doesn't discriminate against

30:21.862 --> 30:24.162
females,
males being weaker all during

30:24.164 --> 30:26.684
the ages,
there get to be more and more

30:26.683 --> 30:30.483
females and with the older ages
extreme excess of females,

30:30.480 --> 30:35.730
but in India already in 1871
there was quite a difference.

30:35.730 --> 30:39.670
In China--this is a Chinese
book of travels from the

30:39.672 --> 30:43.852
nineteenth century and someone--
a Chinese person went to

30:43.846 --> 30:47.386
India--went to England and
observed things and came back

30:47.394 --> 30:51.464
and wrote a travel book for the
Chinese and this is a quote from

30:51.455 --> 30:55.445
that: "England is so short
of inhabitants that the English

30:55.453 --> 30:57.843
rear every child that is born.

30:57.838 --> 31:01.258
Even prostitutes who bear
children do not destroy

31:01.255 --> 31:02.175
them."

31:02.180 --> 31:06.070
England was the dominant power
of the world and they were

31:06.069 --> 31:08.709
invading China with the Opium
Wars,

31:08.710 --> 31:10.960
so of course everybody
including the Emperor was

31:10.964 --> 31:12.794
interested in what is England
like,

31:12.788 --> 31:16.228
how come they're so powerful,
what's different there,

31:16.230 --> 31:20.030
and so the Emperor read this
and the Emperor's response was,

31:20.028 --> 31:23.978
he didn't believe that the
English were so stupid.

31:23.980 --> 31:28.520
Again, the cultural thing that
to raise up all the children,

31:28.519 --> 31:33.289
and especially to raise up all
the girls, is just not going.

31:33.288 --> 31:37.548
In your reading packet,
it discusses villages in India

31:37.549 --> 31:41.409
dating back to 1830 that have no
girls at all.

31:41.410 --> 31:45.850
They just do away with all the
girls, all of them are killed.

31:45.848 --> 31:50.878
1921, Somerset Maugham,
does that name ring any bells?

31:50.880 --> 31:53.800
He was a famous author,
wrote a lot of novels,

31:53.803 --> 31:56.663
a lot of movies with very
famous movie stars,

31:56.661 --> 31:58.351
a very popular author.

31:58.348 --> 32:02.278
In 1921 he was touring China
and he came upon a little tower

32:02.279 --> 32:06.409
on a Chinese hillside with a
single small hole in the wall,

32:06.410 --> 32:09.900
so they're walking along and
there's a small tower with a

32:09.898 --> 32:11.518
little hole in the wall.

32:11.519 --> 32:16.709
Out of that hole came a
nauseating odor and he asked--

32:16.710 --> 32:19.880
he was with a Chinese guide and
he asked him what is that,

32:19.880 --> 32:23.350
and he thought maybe feces were
dumped there or something.

32:23.348 --> 32:27.568
No, it turns out it was a baby
tower and it was just a pit dug

32:27.571 --> 32:31.451
into the ground and surrounded
with this tower and people

32:31.448 --> 32:36.388
brought excess girls especially,
but some occasionally boys and

32:36.388 --> 32:38.608
just dumped them into this.

32:38.608 --> 32:41.778
A little boy came up and
explained this to him and said

32:41.780 --> 32:45.370
that--the little boy said that
four babies were thrown in that

32:45.365 --> 32:46.065
morning.

32:46.068 --> 32:49.338
This doesn't--this particular
passage didn't discuss the sex

32:49.335 --> 32:52.655
of the babies because he didn't
know that, they're already in

32:52.655 --> 32:53.205
there.

32:53.210 --> 32:56.730
One of the quotes is,
"The female child is

32:56.733 --> 32:59.113
regarded as a liability here.

32:59.108 --> 33:02.618
In rural areas women are not
even considered people."

33:02.618 --> 33:07.008
You'll do some reading where,
rather biased reading but

33:07.005 --> 33:10.625
accurate on this,
that girls often don't get

33:10.627 --> 33:14.377
names traditionally,
their named 'daughter number

33:14.384 --> 33:18.814
one,' 'daughter number two,'
'daughter number three,' and all

33:18.807 --> 33:20.207
kinds of things.

33:20.210 --> 33:23.900
As I've mentioned the
elimination of females is not

33:23.895 --> 33:27.725
limited to the young and in one
of your readings--

33:27.730 --> 33:32.330
I guess I described it to you,
a tribe in New Guinea where if

33:32.333 --> 33:36.173
a male died his widow was
immediately strangled.

33:36.170 --> 33:37.610
Do you remember that?

33:37.609 --> 33:40.909
That changes the sex ratio.

33:40.910 --> 33:44.530
In India, you've all heard
about this, they're used to be a

33:44.532 --> 33:46.972
variant to this practice called
sati.

33:46.970 --> 33:50.780
You heard of sati or sutee,
sometime where the wife throws

33:50.782 --> 33:54.662
herself on the funeral pyre of
the man or in some other way

33:54.663 --> 33:56.473
does away with herself.

33:56.470 --> 33:59.290
This is from 1813,
quite some time back,

33:59.288 --> 34:03.948
and there was a British captain
named Kemp who was eyewitness to

34:03.950 --> 34:08.020
one of these things and he wrote
a description of it.

34:08.018 --> 34:10.638
" A male had been sick a
short time.

34:10.639 --> 34:14.589
An astrologer said that he was
on the point of death and so he

34:14.592 --> 34:18.742
was taken down to the side of
the holy Ganges River to expire.

34:18.739 --> 34:22.079
He was immersed to his waist in
the river for some time,

34:22.083 --> 34:23.303
but he didn't die.

34:23.300 --> 34:27.620
They brought him back to the
bank of the river and let him

34:27.619 --> 34:29.989
broil in the sun;
he didn't die.

34:29.989 --> 34:32.709
Then they put him back in the
river again, and he didn't die.

34:32.710 --> 34:34.520
He was returned to the
bank."

34:34.518 --> 34:38.528
This kept going for 36 hours
alternating sort of freezing and

34:38.534 --> 34:41.214
baking and finally this sick guy
died.

34:41.210 --> 34:42.810
Whether he would,
or would not,

34:42.809 --> 34:44.409
have died anyway,
who knows.

34:44.409 --> 34:48.029
It was the astrologer's word
that he was going to die.

34:48.030 --> 34:52.020
His wife, he was married,
was a healthy young girl of

34:52.016 --> 34:52.856
about 16.

34:52.860 --> 34:57.810
Learning of her husband's death
she decided to be buried alive

34:57.809 --> 34:59.269
with his corpse.

34:59.268 --> 35:01.878
The British officer,
this Kemp, tried in vain to

35:01.875 --> 35:05.825
persuade the girl not to do it,
then tried to persuade the

35:05.833 --> 35:10.383
mother, and he said that a
resolution of this type to just

35:10.378 --> 35:13.488
kill yourself was a kind of
madness.

35:13.489 --> 35:16.639
He had no success and he
encountered not the slightest

35:16.637 --> 35:19.957
sign of either hesitation or a
great regret on either the

35:19.961 --> 35:22.161
girl's part or the mother's
part.

35:22.159 --> 35:27.199
The actual scene takes place;
the young widow accompanied by

35:27.202 --> 35:30.822
her friends proceeded to the
beach where his body lay.

35:30.820 --> 35:34.100
He was placed in a grave about
six feet deep,

35:34.101 --> 35:37.831
the wife circled the grave
seven times calling out,

35:37.829 --> 35:40.439
"Hail God,
Hail God."

35:40.440 --> 35:43.420
the surrounding crowd echoed
her chant, 'Hail God,

35:43.420 --> 35:44.150
Hail God.'

35:44.150 --> 35:47.330
She climbed into the grave,
the captain,

35:47.329 --> 35:50.659
this British guy moved up to
within a foot of the grave to

35:50.657 --> 35:54.097
see if at the last minute she
showed any signs of reluctance

35:54.101 --> 35:57.371
or whether her relatives showed
any sign of horror,

35:57.369 --> 36:00.359
and if she showed reluctance he
might have jumped in and pulled

36:00.358 --> 36:00.838
her out.

36:00.840 --> 36:03.450
She placed herself in a sitting
posture,

36:03.449 --> 36:06.139
as her husband had been placed,
didn't lay him flat but a

36:06.137 --> 36:08.297
sitting posture,
both faced north,

36:08.300 --> 36:10.950
so she was sitting behind his
back.

36:10.949 --> 36:14.899
She embraced the corpse with
her left hand and reclined her

36:14.902 --> 36:16.472
head on his shoulder.

36:16.469 --> 36:20.259
The British officer still saw
no sign of regret on her part.

36:20.260 --> 36:23.870
The other plan--the other hand
she placed over her head with

36:23.871 --> 36:27.731
her forefinger erect which she
moved in a circular direction.

36:27.730 --> 36:33.770
The watchers then started
throwing earth on them to start

36:33.773 --> 36:39.293
burying them and then other men,
as the earth was put in,

36:39.293 --> 36:43.513
they stamped on the earth to
pack it down but she continued

36:43.505 --> 36:48.005
circling her hand until her head
was completely buried and then

36:48.007 --> 36:52.727
she kept going for some time
after that and finally stopped.

36:52.730 --> 36:55.990
The earth was piled on and
stamped down and was two or

36:55.990 --> 36:58.760
three feet above the heads of
the entombed.

36:58.760 --> 37:01.710
No tear was shed by any of the
relations.

37:01.710 --> 37:05.580
Eventually the crowd disbursed
and the ritual lamentations and

37:05.583 --> 37:08.063
howling commenced but without
sorrow.

37:08.059 --> 37:14.109
This is a long time ago and
it's certainly extremely rare

37:14.112 --> 37:17.142
now, if it happens at all.

37:17.139 --> 37:20.699
There was one report of one
woman in a village about ten

37:20.704 --> 37:23.974
years ago who did it,
and this is illegal in India,

37:23.967 --> 37:26.557
so very hard to get any decent
statistics,

37:26.559 --> 37:30.589
but very rarely it happens and
this woman who killed herself on

37:30.592 --> 37:33.972
her husband's pyre was
considered a paragon of virtue

37:33.974 --> 37:37.684
and sort of like a saint because
she was following the old

37:37.681 --> 37:41.001
religious customs and the
village was happy about it

37:40.998 --> 37:44.708
because they got a lot of
tourists to come and revere this

37:44.706 --> 37:49.126
saint like lady and made a lot
of money off the tourists,

37:49.130 --> 37:54.460
but it's very rare.

37:54.460 --> 37:58.570
Of course this whole sex
preference business is not in

37:58.568 --> 38:00.738
any sense limited to Asia.

38:00.739 --> 38:04.059
Hispanic women in Los Angeles
were surveyed,

38:04.061 --> 38:07.691
they want 2.8 sons on average
and 0.1 daughters,

38:07.692 --> 38:10.012
a factor of 28 difference.

38:10.010 --> 38:15.780
In Kuwait before the Gulf War,
this is the 1991 war I think,

38:15.775 --> 38:21.045
Barbara Walters who you all
know, did a story on gender

38:21.054 --> 38:23.014
roles in Kuwait.

38:23.010 --> 38:25.080
Yes, during the Gulf War she
was there,

38:25.079 --> 38:28.239
and she noted that women
customarily walked about ten

38:28.235 --> 38:32.235
feet behind their husbands and
this happens in a lot of places,

38:32.239 --> 38:35.139
and a strong sign of female
deference and dependence.

38:35.139 --> 38:38.989
The husband walks without the
wife and the wife follows ten

38:38.987 --> 38:41.837
feet behind, you've heard of
that custom.

38:41.840 --> 38:47.590
The war takes place,
the Iraqi's get beaten,

38:47.590 --> 38:51.820
she comes back to Kuwait to do
another story after the war,

38:51.820 --> 38:56.840
and she was so pleased because
now the men walked behind the

38:56.835 --> 38:58.925
wives,
that the women were walking in

38:58.925 --> 39:00.495
front,
and so Barbara Walters said

39:00.503 --> 39:03.803
this is wonderful progress,
this is the American--they're

39:03.797 --> 39:07.887
catching on over there and so
she approached one of the women

39:07.891 --> 39:10.101
and said--
and the camera was rolling to

39:10.097 --> 39:11.807
catch this,
she's a TV personality,

39:11.806 --> 39:14.426
"this is marvelous,"
says Barbara Walters,

39:14.429 --> 39:18.399
"can you tell the free
world just what enabled women to

39:18.402 --> 39:21.032
achieve this reversal of
roles?"

39:21.030 --> 39:27.910
The Kuwaiti woman said,
"Land mines."

39:27.909 --> 39:33.379
And so it wasn't a reversal at
all.

39:33.380 --> 39:43.170
I think you get the idea of all
of this.

39:43.170 --> 39:47.100
We--there's deeper reasons,
I mean again one way is to put

39:47.096 --> 39:51.366
it down to Asian tradition and
that's not really any kind of an

39:51.367 --> 39:52.467
explanation.

39:52.469 --> 39:55.499
We like to think that people
are rational around the world

39:55.503 --> 39:58.433
and that there's some more
fundamental reason for it.

39:58.429 --> 40:01.679
A lot of the reasons that you
all said, what are some of the

40:01.679 --> 40:04.929
extra reasons that I sort of
pushed aside for the moment?

40:04.929 --> 40:09.819
One was dowry issues and some
of you said some other things,

40:09.820 --> 40:14.810
but there's a whole lot of
things, and the basic story is

40:14.809 --> 40:17.609
that in--
certainly in India and also in

40:17.610 --> 40:21.130
traditional China the girl is
brought up by the parents,

40:21.130 --> 40:25.700
gets married at quite a young
age, and by young teenage they

40:25.697 --> 40:29.257
get married and get shipped off
to the son--

40:29.260 --> 40:32.890
the husband's family where she
works is then counted in that

40:32.885 --> 40:36.565
family and is worked--
usually works very hard and

40:36.565 --> 40:39.745
basically is a servant in that
family.

40:39.750 --> 40:44.980
The family that raises her has
the problem of investing in that

40:44.983 --> 40:48.253
girl,
putting a lot of money to raise

40:48.248 --> 40:50.468
that girl,
then, just as she's able to

40:50.469 --> 40:52.909
start working seriously and
maybe return some labor,

40:52.909 --> 40:56.789
some serious labor or some
money to the parents,

40:56.789 --> 41:01.429
she's gone and she works for
some other family.

41:01.429 --> 41:05.169
This is economically a very bad
thing and the people call

41:05.168 --> 41:08.638
raising girls like watering
someone else's garden.

41:08.639 --> 41:12.419
Then on top of that when the
dowry system is strong,

41:12.420 --> 41:15.320
which it is in India,
and going crazy,

41:15.320 --> 41:18.910
then at marriage they have to
provide a lot of money and this

41:18.907 --> 41:21.297
can go up to be like a year's
income,

41:21.300 --> 41:25.310
easily, to get the girl
married, and it's a great honor

41:25.306 --> 41:25.896
thing.

41:25.900 --> 41:28.820
If you have a daughter you have
to get her married,

41:28.818 --> 41:32.318
so you have to pay dowry or
your family's honor goes away.

41:32.320 --> 41:37.580
This idea, that the girl is
just passed away just at the

41:37.581 --> 41:42.861
time she can be of value to you,
is kind of the rational actor

41:42.862 --> 41:46.462
theory of why there's all this
female discrimination.

41:46.460 --> 41:51.140
Anything strike you unexplained
about that?

41:51.139 --> 41:53.919
Why is that--
Student:  It's the girl.

41:53.920 --> 41:56.790
Prof: It's the girl that
goes away all the time.

41:56.789 --> 41:58.589
Why can't the man go away?

41:58.590 --> 42:00.310
This is, by the way,
characteristic of human

42:00.309 --> 42:00.789
societies.

42:00.789 --> 42:05.049
I may have mentioned this to
you, the genetics shows that

42:05.045 --> 42:09.145
males in a village are related,
they've stayed there for

42:09.153 --> 42:13.993
hundreds or thousands of years,
and females move out,

42:13.992 --> 42:15.562
so exogamy.

42:15.559 --> 42:17.589
Where have you seen exogamy
before?

42:17.590 --> 42:21.840
Among the chimpanzees where the
females go out;

42:21.840 --> 42:26.200
and so as far as we can tell
this is a vestige from our very

42:26.197 --> 42:30.847
original biological roots where
our reproductive system requires

42:30.849 --> 42:35.349
not that the males fight each
other and the males disburse but

42:35.353 --> 42:39.713
that the males stay together in
a military situation and the

42:39.710 --> 42:41.410
females go out.

42:41.409 --> 42:45.339
It's this very basic form
of--you can call it chimpanzee

42:45.344 --> 42:48.284
social organization that leads
to that.

42:48.280 --> 42:51.070
The females go out and
therefore the females are of no

42:51.074 --> 42:54.244
value to the family that brings
them up and therefore they're

42:54.237 --> 42:55.607
discriminated against.

42:55.610 --> 42:58.860
The men stay together and they
have to have a

42:58.864 --> 43:02.644
protective--protect the village
against violence.

43:02.639 --> 43:05.789
In some places there's
a--either a tribe or a caste as

43:05.786 --> 43:08.696
you'll call it in India,
the Nayar, which are very

43:08.695 --> 43:10.235
military kind of cast.

43:10.239 --> 43:12.889
What happens is they get
married very young,

43:12.889 --> 43:15.329
but then the man may,
or may not, spend one night

43:15.331 --> 43:18.081
with the wife and then he goes
off to the military,

43:18.079 --> 43:20.229
and meanwhile,
the wife has all kinds of

43:20.228 --> 43:22.928
sexual relationships and its
quite formalized,

43:22.929 --> 43:25.229
quite legal,
the women live in one big

43:25.230 --> 43:26.540
house,
they don't really

43:26.543 --> 43:28.763
recognize--it's like the Na that
you read about,

43:28.760 --> 43:32.860
it's a female lineage society,
and then upper class men are

43:32.860 --> 43:36.960
invited in to sleep with these
women and produce babies for

43:36.961 --> 43:39.281
them,
and then the men have 15 or 20

43:39.275 --> 43:40.715
years of military service.

43:40.719 --> 43:44.469
Then they come home,
and only really at that time,

43:44.474 --> 43:46.854
do they pick up the marriage.

43:46.849 --> 43:50.799
Again it's a very clear--in
this particular cultural

43:50.795 --> 43:53.505
manifestation,
it's a very clear thing that

43:53.505 --> 43:56.445
women are the reproducers,
men are the military ones,

43:56.449 --> 44:00.209
and, as in chimpanzees,
sort of a communal sexuality

44:00.206 --> 44:05.386
that who's the biological father
is not particularly important.

44:05.389 --> 44:13.319


44:13.320 --> 44:18.740
Now, I want to switch gears
here in the time we have left,

44:18.739 --> 44:20.619
and this whole lecture is about
South Asia,

44:20.619 --> 44:24.119
and South Asia and East Asia
are the centers of female

44:24.121 --> 44:27.231
disadvantage,
but that doesn't go on in all

44:27.228 --> 44:28.288
of South Asia.

44:28.289 --> 44:30.209
As I've mentioned,
in Muslim countries that

44:30.210 --> 44:31.490
basically does not happen.

44:31.489 --> 44:35.319
We're going to talk next about
two places;

44:35.320 --> 44:42.200
one is Iowa and the other I'll
tell you in a moment.

44:42.199 --> 44:45.929
Iowa is a rich place, right?

44:45.929 --> 44:49.549
What is Iowa rich from?

44:49.550 --> 44:52.100
Agriculture,
corn, it's a very,

44:52.101 --> 44:53.891
very fertile place.

44:53.889 --> 44:59.689
Well let me go back a little
bit, so I will tell you the

44:59.686 --> 45:05.586
country that I'm going to talk
about if I can find it.

45:05.590 --> 45:09.680
Again we worry a lot and have
induced some of the Asians to

45:09.682 --> 45:12.922
worry about the sex ratio,
that all these men won't get

45:12.922 --> 45:15.792
married,
but remember we're seeing sex

45:15.791 --> 45:18.741
ratio disturbances of 12% to
20%,

45:18.739 --> 45:22.119
and remember in Europe I showed
you this slide that a lot of

45:22.121 --> 45:25.231
places only 30%,
or 40% or 50% of people got

45:25.231 --> 45:27.891
married,
so the marriage imbalance is

45:27.889 --> 45:31.779
much--was much more severe in
Europe for hundreds of years

45:31.775 --> 45:33.545
than it is now in Asia.

45:33.550 --> 45:38.880
The marriage pattern and the
social system in Europe made for

45:38.882 --> 45:44.572
a more extreme situation than
the female disadvantage in Asia.

45:44.570 --> 45:48.650
This not a great slide but this
is Bangladesh and what's in

45:48.654 --> 45:53.024
Bangladesh is this the Himalaya
mountains and here's China,

45:53.018 --> 45:56.108
and Nepal, Bangladesh over
here, India over here,

45:56.110 --> 45:59.700
and this is blown up a little
bit and what you see is this is

45:59.695 --> 46:00.885
the Bay of Bengal.

46:00.889 --> 46:04.599
Here is the Ganges River comes
out of the Himalayas.

46:04.599 --> 46:07.739
The Himalayas stretch all
across here,

46:07.739 --> 46:10.989
the Ganges comes out of the
western Himalayas,

46:10.989 --> 46:14.389
the Brahmaputra comes out of
the eastern Himalayas,

46:14.389 --> 46:18.839
Bangladesh has lots of water
and this is all delta.

46:18.840 --> 46:22.440
You see this stuff,
this is all delta from--through

46:22.438 --> 46:26.538
geological time as the river
wanders around it puts down a

46:26.541 --> 46:27.911
delta out here.

46:27.909 --> 46:30.349
This is what the delta actually
looks like.

46:30.349 --> 46:35.099
There's a reading that you have
which says that the place is so

46:35.103 --> 46:39.703
bad that people are trying to
move out onto this land and try

46:39.702 --> 46:42.872
to farm on it,
and then of course a monsoon

46:42.873 --> 46:45.403
comes so the river--
the water rises and they're

46:45.402 --> 46:45.912
wiped out.

46:45.909 --> 46:49.889
You'll have a reading about
that, so keep this picture in

46:49.893 --> 46:52.173
mind when you do that reading.

46:52.170 --> 46:57.870
Now let's do the story on
agriculture.

46:57.869 --> 47:02.919
The people in Bangladesh are
Bengali's of course and the

47:02.916 --> 47:08.236
Bengali's are a large group that
are split actually between

47:08.239 --> 47:13.069
Bangladesh and eastern--
northeastern part of India,

47:13.065 --> 47:16.975
Calcutta is the capital,
Dhaka is the capital in

47:16.983 --> 47:19.743
Bangladesh,
and Calcutta is the capital of

47:19.737 --> 47:21.917
West Bengal which is part of
India,

47:21.920 --> 47:25.150
so partition split Bengali's
into two groups.

47:25.150 --> 47:29.370
Bangladesh is a very homogenous
country between Pakistan,

47:29.373 --> 47:34.053
India and Bangladesh the three
ones are the old British Raj.

47:34.050 --> 47:38.530
98% of them are Bengali's so
they speak the same language,

47:38.532 --> 47:42.782
have the same cultural
tradition and 88% are Muslim.

47:42.780 --> 47:45.930
Unlike India,
which you cannot talk about as

47:45.932 --> 47:50.262
a whole, you can really talk
about Bangladesh as a whole.

47:50.260 --> 47:53.460
Bengal is a very rich part of
the world,

47:53.460 --> 47:55.320
the Moguls who ruled from the
thirteenth--

47:55.320 --> 47:57.950
so the Moguls were Muslim
invaders from--

47:57.949 --> 48:00.069
apparently I think from
Afghanistan,

48:00.070 --> 48:05.170
conquered north India north of
that part,

48:05.170 --> 48:08.130
and they ruled it from the
thirteenth century onward.

48:08.130 --> 48:12.780
They called Bengal the paradise
of nations.

48:12.780 --> 48:17.340
In the sixteenth century when
European traders came they were

48:17.342 --> 48:20.842
ecstatic over Bengal's abundance
and riches.

48:20.840 --> 48:26.160
Why was it so rich?

48:26.159 --> 48:29.589
I want to compare it to Iowa.

48:29.590 --> 48:34.280
The size of Bangladesh is
56,000 square miles.

48:34.280 --> 48:37.610
Guess what the size of Iowa is?

48:37.610 --> 48:40.860
56,000 square miles,
so they're very close to the

48:40.856 --> 48:44.236
same size, both are very
basically agricultural.

48:44.239 --> 48:48.099
Maytag makes washing machines,
or used to, in Iowa,

48:48.099 --> 48:50.959
but they're very heavily
agricultural,

48:50.956 --> 48:55.046
but Bangladesh has much better
climate than Iowa.

48:55.050 --> 48:57.460
They grow three crops a year in
Bangladesh.

48:57.460 --> 49:01.810
It's nice and warm there all
the time, but poor Iowa,

49:01.809 --> 49:03.899
anybody from Iowa here?

49:03.900 --> 49:06.450
They can only grow one crop a
year and they grow winter wheat

49:06.445 --> 49:08.265
some, but basically it's one
crop a year.

49:08.268 --> 49:13.918
Bengal they can grow three
crops a year.

49:13.920 --> 49:17.470
Bangladesh has plenty of water,
I showed you,

49:17.471 --> 49:21.591
they have nothing but water
there so they never have

49:21.588 --> 49:25.058
droughts, and Iowa is not bad
for that.

49:25.059 --> 49:28.379
It has the Mississippi River on
one side,

49:28.380 --> 49:28.860
the Nebraska River on the other
side,

49:28.860 --> 49:32.910
but inside Iowa the rivers are
all very small,

49:32.909 --> 49:37.649
so if you go to the edges
there's rivers but inside not a

49:37.652 --> 49:42.992
huge amount of rivers and they
sometimes have droughts there.

49:42.989 --> 49:46.799
Both are fertile;
Bangladesh shows a low alluvial

49:46.802 --> 49:50.132
plain so the way land gets
naturally fertilized is water

49:50.125 --> 49:52.925
rushing--
glaciers on the mountaintop

49:52.929 --> 49:56.009
grind the rock and that glacier
flour,

49:56.010 --> 49:57.510
as it's called,
gets into the river,

49:57.510 --> 50:00.410
dissolves somewhat in the
river, and during flood season

50:00.413 --> 50:03.583
it spreads all this silt over
the farmland and that silt--

50:03.579 --> 50:07.239
the minerals in the rock are
the fertilizer.

50:07.239 --> 50:10.719
Bangladesh has this--these
floods from the Himalayas that

50:10.717 --> 50:13.637
cover basically the whole
country and it gets it

50:13.637 --> 50:16.587
fertilizer for free,
it gets as lot of fertilizer

50:16.585 --> 50:20.685
and it gets it all for free,
so again the agriculture is

50:20.690 --> 50:22.530
looking real good.

50:22.530 --> 50:25.580
Iowa does not get this except
at the margins when the

50:25.577 --> 50:28.857
Mississippi floods and sometimes
the Nebraska floods,

50:28.860 --> 50:32.580
so the interior of the country
they have to go and buy

50:32.577 --> 50:33.907
fertilizer there.

50:33.909 --> 50:37.689
By all these geographical kinds
of considerations and climatic

50:37.692 --> 50:40.672
kind of considerations,
Bangladesh should be much

50:40.668 --> 50:41.968
richer than Iowa.

50:41.969 --> 50:49.049
You compare three crops a year
to one crop and something like

50:49.045 --> 50:51.635
three times as rich.

50:51.639 --> 50:56.519
Bangladesh's per capita
income--Iowa's income is 17

50:56.519 --> 51:02.469
times larger than Bangladesh's
and the difference is basically

51:02.474 --> 51:04.334
all population.

51:04.329 --> 51:08.639
Iowa's population is 2.9
million;

51:08.639 --> 51:13.599
Bangladesh is now about 140
million, so it's like 40 times

51:13.599 --> 51:14.729
difference.

51:14.730 --> 51:19.720
Bangladesh has 40 times as much
population as Iowa.

51:19.719 --> 51:23.329
Compared to every other place
in the world,

51:23.331 --> 51:27.721
here are a variety of places,
here's Bangladesh way,

51:27.715 --> 51:31.065
way out in front of everybody
else.

51:31.070 --> 51:34.820
Netherlands is considered
of--other places--

51:34.820 --> 51:40.050
the next most crowded place and
it's also an agricultural place,

51:40.050 --> 51:43.980
but--both of these--they don't
have big mountains or deserts or

51:43.978 --> 51:46.068
anything,
so all of the Netherlands is

51:46.065 --> 51:49.045
basically fertile and all of
Bangladesh is basically fertile,

51:49.050 --> 51:54.960
but look at the difference in
population density and everybody

51:54.956 --> 51:59.506
else is less than either of
those two places.

51:59.510 --> 52:04.070
As you know,
as I've just mentioned,

52:04.070 --> 52:06.840
the income in Bangladesh is
distressingly poor,

52:06.840 --> 52:10.260
it's one of the poorest
countries in the world,

52:10.260 --> 52:14.130
and the estimates are that its
population may double before,

52:14.130 --> 52:16.790
if and when stabilizing.

52:16.789 --> 52:21.439
It's going to be very hard to
make things better in

52:21.440 --> 52:22.650
Bangladesh.

52:22.650 --> 52:26.620
Well going back,
Bangladesh had a stable

52:26.615 --> 52:30.065
population,
they had a kind of traditional

52:30.068 --> 52:31.408
birth,
very high birth,

52:31.413 --> 52:34.333
very high death rates so the
population grew very slowly if

52:34.327 --> 52:36.737
at all,
but about 1880 population

52:36.740 --> 52:40.150
started to take off,
that's when again colonialism

52:40.152 --> 52:42.732
and what not--
the death rate started to

52:42.730 --> 52:46.910
decline and they started adding
about three million people every

52:46.914 --> 52:47.584
decade.

52:47.579 --> 52:50.289
What do three million extra
people do in a country the size

52:50.291 --> 52:50.761
of Iowa?

52:50.760 --> 52:53.360
Not tiny but not especially big
either,

52:53.360 --> 52:56.340
well there's some jungle--there
was some jungle in Bangladesh,

52:56.340 --> 52:59.460
they cleared that and they
started farming but by the late

52:59.460 --> 53:01.760
1930s the jungle was just
totally gone,

53:01.760 --> 53:04.200
no more jungle land.

53:04.199 --> 53:07.149
In 1938, Biren Ganguli,
a Bengali himself,

53:07.146 --> 53:11.456
wrote "Every inch of land
that is fit for cultivation is

53:11.458 --> 53:12.678
already used.

53:12.679 --> 53:17.199
Every pathway or cattle track
is pared down by farmers on

53:17.197 --> 53:21.717
either side until he barely
leaves room for two people to

53:21.717 --> 53:25.507
pass each other on this narrow
track."

53:25.510 --> 53:30.010
What did people do as the
population kept increasing?

53:30.010 --> 53:33.400
They started moving out onto
these mud flats that I've shown

53:33.396 --> 53:35.116
you that are very temporary.

53:35.119 --> 53:38.719
The cyclones come in,
not only is there the normal

53:38.715 --> 53:43.025
flooding from the rivers,
but the cyclones come in and

53:43.025 --> 53:48.105
you start getting these enormous
death tolls in a period of time

53:48.105 --> 53:51.405
in Bangladesh from climatic
problems,

53:51.409 --> 53:53.069
but it was really,
again, a population problem,

53:53.070 --> 53:54.730
just like the deserts that I
told you about.

53:54.730 --> 53:59.980
People shouldn't be living on
these flats where they're going

53:59.983 --> 54:02.703
to be wiped out periodically.

54:02.699 --> 54:06.249
There was, for a while,
almost 100,000 deaths a year

54:06.253 --> 54:08.933
from storms,
erosion and flooding from these

54:08.925 --> 54:12.255
kind of--
just consider deaths from

54:12.257 --> 54:14.727
climatic water stuff.

54:14.730 --> 54:20.990
It took about 60 years of the
population increase for Bengal,

54:20.989 --> 54:24.819
becoming one of the--to go from
one of the rich places of the

54:24.815 --> 54:26.795
world,
not industrialized,

54:26.804 --> 54:31.284
but rich on their agricultural
produce to what was standardly

54:31.275 --> 54:33.505
described as a basket case.

54:33.510 --> 54:38.140
Now all the focus is on Africa,
but, not so long ago,

54:38.141 --> 54:43.311
Bangladesh was considered in
just as bad shape as Africa is

54:43.306 --> 54:44.016
now.

54:44.018 --> 54:48.718
It was constantly on the news,
stories of disaster in

54:48.722 --> 54:54.422
Bangladesh and you're supposed
to cry at that and give money.

54:54.420 --> 55:00.490
Bangladesh was clearly one of
those places that was caught in

55:00.485 --> 55:03.715
one of these Malthusian traps.

55:03.719 --> 55:06.339
The arable land and this is a
somewhat old figure in the

55:06.340 --> 55:10.630
population has increased a lot,
is 0.1 hectare per person,

55:10.625 --> 55:14.515
that's a quarter of an acre a
person.

55:14.518 --> 55:17.028
Just to compare you to that,
any of you from farm places?

55:17.030 --> 55:18.540
How many of you are from farm
places?

55:18.539 --> 55:21.469
Every year I always get
some--do you know what--what's

55:21.465 --> 55:23.615
the size of the farms where you
live?

55:23.619 --> 55:24.789
Where do you live?

55:24.789 --> 55:26.159
Student:  I live outside
of Cleveland.

55:26.159 --> 55:27.549
Prof: Outside of
Cleveland?

55:27.550 --> 55:28.710
Student:  Yeah.

55:28.710 --> 55:31.450
Prof: That's not one of
the big farms,

55:31.445 --> 55:34.425
but do you know roughly the
size of the farms?

55:34.429 --> 55:35.229
Student:  30 acres.

55:35.230 --> 55:36.220
Prof: Thirty acres.

55:36.219 --> 55:37.229
Student:  A small one.

55:37.230 --> 55:39.400
Prof: Okay,
so that's small farms,

55:39.402 --> 55:42.772
out West they can be thousands,
like the real commercial farms,

55:42.769 --> 55:44.019
thousands of acres.

55:44.019 --> 55:46.239
Here's 0.1 hectare per person.

55:46.239 --> 55:50.229
I used to live in Bethany which
was sort of a northwest suburb

55:50.226 --> 55:53.756
of New Haven and our house was--
our part of Bethany was zoned

55:53.755 --> 55:56.185
for three acres and I didn't
have to live off of it,

55:56.190 --> 55:57.800
there was just a house on that.

55:57.800 --> 56:03.430
If you had a house you had to
have three acres so that was

56:03.431 --> 56:07.541
enough so that,
in Bengal, Bangladesh 30

56:07.543 --> 56:13.193
families would live on these
three acres at 0.1 hectare per

56:13.186 --> 56:14.156
person.

56:14.159 --> 56:17.909
All of the indicators in this
time starting,

56:17.909 --> 56:24.359
say in the 1950s or 1960s,
was that Bangladesh would not

56:24.362 --> 56:28.472
be a country in which you
would--

56:28.469 --> 56:31.509
where you find a desire to
limit fertility or the practice

56:31.505 --> 56:32.885
of fertility limitation.

56:32.889 --> 56:36.839
It's, as I've said,
almost all Muslim and it's a

56:36.838 --> 56:40.028
conservative version of Islam
there.

56:40.030 --> 56:42.190
Infant and child mortality was
high,

56:42.190 --> 56:45.280
25% of the children died before
the age of five,

56:45.280 --> 56:48.910
but that had been coming down
slowly as I showed you for

56:48.907 --> 56:50.157
roughly 20 years.

56:50.159 --> 56:53.309
Women had very low social
status there,

56:53.309 --> 56:56.679
most of them in--were subject
to purdah,

56:56.679 --> 57:00.079
which they not only have to
dress so they can't be seen when

57:00.083 --> 57:03.873
they're outside of the house,
but they generally couldn't go

57:03.867 --> 57:07.677
outside of the house at all
unless accompanied a male member

57:07.681 --> 57:08.781
of the family.

57:08.780 --> 57:12.160
Men were fairly free to abuse
women,

57:12.159 --> 57:15.329
and I read you the first
lecture I think some case of the

57:15.327 --> 57:18.607
battery acid being thrown at
women in more recent time,

57:18.610 --> 57:22.070
so that still continues.

57:22.070 --> 57:24.870
Last time I mentioned that one
of the reasons that people want

57:24.869 --> 57:27.259
children is for old age
security, who's going to take

57:27.257 --> 57:28.587
care of me in my old age.

57:28.590 --> 57:30.800
And, of course,
Bangladesh was very poor,

57:30.800 --> 57:33.360
had no social security system,
so the families were,

57:33.360 --> 57:36.050
of course, dependent on
children for their old age,

57:36.050 --> 57:38.680
they were dependent on sons for
their old age,

57:38.679 --> 57:40.449
so that means that you had to
have a lot of children to make

57:40.449 --> 57:40.659
sure.

57:40.659 --> 57:44.719
You can't have a daughter,
you've got to have sons to make

57:44.724 --> 57:48.294
sure that you have somebody to
take care of you.

57:48.289 --> 57:53.329
During the period of time I'm
going to talk about here are

57:53.327 --> 57:58.187
some of the major disasters in
Bangladesh over time,

57:58.190 --> 58:00.720
so this is one really very
famous one,

58:00.719 --> 58:03.669
the Bengal famine of 1943.

58:03.670 --> 58:11.280
They were already on the edge,
and then World War II hits and

58:11.284 --> 58:18.774
a variety of things happen and
2.5 million people die in the

58:18.773 --> 58:20.173
famine.

58:20.170 --> 58:22.980
Here's some of the cyclones,
various cyclones.

58:22.980 --> 58:26.080
They had a war when they were
trying to get independent of

58:26.076 --> 58:28.516
West Pakistan,
they had a war and these things

58:28.519 --> 58:30.149
happened,
another cyclone,

58:30.153 --> 58:34.973
floods, all of them,
and so all kinds of problems

58:34.972 --> 58:37.222
beset the country.

58:37.219 --> 58:41.519
Now during this period,
that is the critical period for

58:41.518 --> 58:44.378
population issues,
the per capita GDP,

58:44.380 --> 58:48.330
the gross domestic product,
basically didn't change,

58:48.333 --> 58:51.803
a little bit up but not
enormously up.

58:51.800 --> 58:55.640
It basically had a flat per
capita economy,

58:55.639 --> 58:58.589
per capita GDP,
so again, the total economy was

58:58.585 --> 59:01.785
growing but more and more people
ate it all up,

59:01.789 --> 59:06.809
so basically the per capita GDP
doesn't change in this period.

59:06.809 --> 59:13.739


59:13.739 --> 59:19.019
What happened was that Malthus
had been in India and the

59:19.018 --> 59:21.278
Indian--
the whole Indian subcontinent

59:21.275 --> 59:22.925
paid a lot of attention to
Malthus,

59:22.929 --> 59:25.019
so they had been aware--India,
Pakistan,

59:25.018 --> 59:28.088
Bangladesh had been aware of
population issues and aware of

59:28.086 --> 59:31.256
the Malthusian ideas about it
for a long time and the British

59:31.260 --> 59:34.380
of course trained their civil
servants of the countries when

59:34.380 --> 59:37.130
they got independence it was the
same people,

59:37.130 --> 59:38.540
so this was in their mind.

59:38.539 --> 59:42.159
In fact the South Asia,
originally India and Pakistan,

59:42.159 --> 59:45.989
were some of the very first
countries to institute family

59:45.985 --> 59:47.485
planning programs.

59:47.489 --> 59:52.639
The one in Pakistan was not
particularly successful,

59:52.639 --> 59:55.919
the one in India is now much
better but did not start out

59:55.922 --> 59:58.162
successfully,
but after the war of

59:58.163 --> 1:00:01.033
independence,
when Bangladesh split from West

1:00:01.032 --> 1:00:05.142
Pakistan the government really
was aware of these problems,

1:00:05.139 --> 1:00:09.429
had a Malthusian attitude and
they really decided that they

1:00:09.434 --> 1:00:13.364
must start to get some control
of their population.

1:00:13.360 --> 1:00:17.170
The government supported and
instituted a family planning

1:00:17.168 --> 1:00:21.248
program for the whole country
and international organizations

1:00:21.248 --> 1:00:23.628
said,
'OK, you want to do this,

1:00:23.634 --> 1:00:26.914
we will help you,' and
especially there's a group

1:00:26.905 --> 1:00:30.655
called The International
Diarrheal Research Organization

1:00:30.655 --> 1:00:34.675
which was one of the ones that
had discovered and pushed the

1:00:34.677 --> 1:00:36.857
oral rehydration packets.

1:00:36.860 --> 1:00:41.140
Many, many--huge numbers of
infant deaths in poor countries

1:00:41.143 --> 1:00:42.763
due--
they get diarrhea and

1:00:42.762 --> 1:00:45.862
diarrhea--the bug doesn't kill
you but you lose enough water

1:00:45.860 --> 1:00:49.070
through the diarrhea that you
die basically of dehydration and

1:00:49.065 --> 1:00:52.265
all you need to do is to have a
little packet of water,

1:00:52.268 --> 1:00:56.258
salt and sugar and as long as
the water is not terribly

1:00:56.259 --> 1:01:00.539
polluted the child will stay
alive and will eventually kick

1:01:00.543 --> 1:01:03.133
out the virus or the bacterium.

1:01:03.130 --> 1:01:05.970
This International Diarrheal
Research Group,

1:01:05.974 --> 1:01:08.494
are very well respected,
and they said,

1:01:08.489 --> 1:01:12.659
'okay we will also help you
with family planning programs.'

1:01:12.659 --> 1:01:19.109
What resulted was a countrywide
program.

1:01:19.110 --> 1:01:22.450
Now at this same time,
we're talking the early 1970s,

1:01:22.449 --> 1:01:27.419
most of the developed world had
the idea that they--

1:01:27.420 --> 1:01:30.070
what did they say,
they saw rich countries have

1:01:30.068 --> 1:01:32.208
few children,
poor countries have a lot of

1:01:32.210 --> 1:01:33.470
children,
what's the cause?

1:01:33.469 --> 1:01:35.219
Well money is the cause.

1:01:35.219 --> 1:01:37.369
When you get rich you want to
have fewer children,

1:01:37.371 --> 1:01:39.701
we're going to have a lecture
on that very interesting

1:01:39.701 --> 1:01:40.361
phenomenon.

1:01:40.360 --> 1:01:43.820
A lot of developing countries
and East European countries

1:01:43.824 --> 1:01:47.104
rejected the whole idea of
family planning as a way of

1:01:47.101 --> 1:01:50.641
improving the economy and said,
no development is the best

1:01:50.641 --> 1:01:51.401
contraceptive.

1:01:51.400 --> 1:01:53.580
That was the rule,
development is the best

1:01:53.583 --> 1:01:55.473
contraceptive,
that there's no way in,

1:01:55.472 --> 1:01:57.872
a poor place like Bangladesh,
that you're going to get

1:01:57.867 --> 1:02:00.227
fertility down because of all
these reasons that we've

1:02:00.226 --> 1:02:02.136
mentioned,
but if you develop the country

1:02:02.144 --> 1:02:04.394
economically than it will
naturally come down and the

1:02:04.389 --> 1:02:06.289
government doesn't have to mess
with it,

1:02:06.289 --> 1:02:08.989
doesn't have to set up family
planning programs.

1:02:08.989 --> 1:02:12.259
Everybody predicted,
strenuously,

1:02:12.262 --> 1:02:18.302
that Bangladesh could do what
it wanted with family planning

1:02:18.295 --> 1:02:24.225
programs until and unless they
developed economically there

1:02:24.228 --> 1:02:26.988
would be no progress.

1:02:26.989 --> 1:02:33.439
What they did was they--prior
to this program they had tried a

1:02:33.443 --> 1:02:35.563
variety of things.

1:02:35.559 --> 1:02:37.949
In Pakistan one of the programs
was,

1:02:37.949 --> 1:02:41.639
well people are culturally into
having a lot of children and so

1:02:41.637 --> 1:02:45.797
we must work with their culture,
and must work with traditional

1:02:45.800 --> 1:02:47.050
birth attendants.

1:02:47.050 --> 1:02:49.420
In Pakistan,
including Bangladesh at the

1:02:49.422 --> 1:02:53.012
time,
they had women called Daiys who

1:02:53.010 --> 1:02:56.910
are basically local health
providers,

1:02:56.909 --> 1:03:01.279
herbal women,
midwives for births and stuff

1:03:01.284 --> 1:03:04.754
like that,
but they had basically no

1:03:04.753 --> 1:03:07.123
modern training whatsoever.

1:03:07.119 --> 1:03:12.309
In the first implementation of
Pakistan's program they gave

1:03:12.306 --> 1:03:17.226
these Daiys various forms of
birth control and they were

1:03:17.226 --> 1:03:19.906
supposed to give them out.

1:03:19.909 --> 1:03:21.239
It didn't work.

1:03:21.239 --> 1:03:21.909
Why didn't it work?

1:03:21.909 --> 1:03:25.109
The Daiys themselves were older
women in general who did not use

1:03:25.105 --> 1:03:27.535
contraception and did not think
it was moral,

1:03:27.539 --> 1:03:30.659
did not think it worked,
and had all kinds of bad

1:03:30.659 --> 1:03:32.089
attitudes toward it.

1:03:32.090 --> 1:03:34.620
So, if someone tries to sell
you something,

1:03:34.623 --> 1:03:36.983
and they don't themselves
believe in it,

1:03:36.978 --> 1:03:39.028
you generally don't accept it.

1:03:39.030 --> 1:03:41.710
Plus, economically,
they made very little by

1:03:41.708 --> 1:03:44.758
distributing these kind of
contraceptives from the

1:03:44.762 --> 1:03:48.052
government,
but they could make quite a bit

1:03:48.047 --> 1:03:52.397
more by attending the births
that they charge a good fee for

1:03:52.404 --> 1:03:56.174
births where the government set
the little bit,

1:03:56.170 --> 1:03:58.700
they wanted to have the
contraceptives very fairly free

1:03:58.695 --> 1:04:01.155
to the people,
so they didn't pay the Daiys

1:04:01.161 --> 1:04:01.821
very much.

1:04:01.820 --> 1:04:04.460
The Daiys would get all the
condoms especially and sort of

1:04:04.458 --> 1:04:07.238
bury them somewhere and claim to
the government that they had

1:04:07.235 --> 1:04:09.315
distributed them and then made a
lot of--

1:04:09.320 --> 1:04:12.570
not a lot of money,
but their money from attending

1:04:12.565 --> 1:04:15.675
the births that hadn't been
averted by this,

1:04:15.679 --> 1:04:17.869
so it didn't work.

1:04:17.869 --> 1:04:20.199
They learn, these are again the
first countries in the world to

1:04:20.195 --> 1:04:22.405
have family planning programs
and they didn't know how to do

1:04:22.407 --> 1:04:22.667
it.

1:04:22.670 --> 1:04:26.310
You have to--it's not given
that this is the way you do it.

1:04:26.309 --> 1:04:31.249
Eventually they started the
program that I described to you

1:04:31.253 --> 1:04:35.943
somewhat last time where the
women can't come out of the

1:04:35.940 --> 1:04:41.140
house so you hire a high status
woman from that village,

1:04:41.139 --> 1:04:44.109
known to the women,
has high status,

1:04:44.110 --> 1:04:47.930
is herself using contraception,
thinks it's a wonderful thing,

1:04:47.929 --> 1:04:50.859
you train her how to deal not
only with the woman but the

1:04:50.862 --> 1:04:52.802
woman has very little power
there,

1:04:52.800 --> 1:04:55.310
to deal with the husband,
to deal especially with the

1:04:55.309 --> 1:04:57.359
mother-in-law,
and for that you need a high

1:04:57.364 --> 1:05:00.144
status woman that can go into a
house and start discussing these

1:05:00.143 --> 1:05:03.473
things,
because even talking about

1:05:03.467 --> 1:05:09.577
anything to do with sex or
reproduction is not a socially

1:05:09.577 --> 1:05:11.757
acceptable thing.

1:05:11.760 --> 1:05:19.420
They started this program and
initially you got this kind of a

1:05:19.423 --> 1:05:20.433
thing.

1:05:20.429 --> 1:05:24.189
Veena Siddharth talked about
this, that when you start a

1:05:24.186 --> 1:05:27.846
family planning program,
this is an older version of the

1:05:27.853 --> 1:05:31.213
family planning program not the
one I've just described.

1:05:31.210 --> 1:05:35.100
What you see is they
took--there was a place called

1:05:35.101 --> 1:05:38.031
Matlab,
one of the districts in

1:05:38.025 --> 1:05:40.495
Bangladesh,
and they chose some villages,

1:05:40.503 --> 1:05:43.163
they wanted to know if what
they were doing was successful,

1:05:43.159 --> 1:05:45.559
some villages they gave this
family planning program to and

1:05:45.559 --> 1:05:48.589
other villages they didn't,
as a control region.

1:05:48.590 --> 1:05:52.040
Here is during this period up
until 1977 the comparison area

1:05:52.039 --> 1:05:54.379
where they didn't do anything
special.

1:05:54.380 --> 1:05:57.790
The government had a small
program but nothing much was

1:05:57.791 --> 1:05:58.551
happening.

1:05:58.550 --> 1:06:01.760
Now, the International
Diarrheal Research Group comes

1:06:01.759 --> 1:06:04.289
in with this somewhat updated
program,

1:06:04.289 --> 1:06:07.839
not the one I showed you,
and what happens immediately

1:06:07.840 --> 1:06:11.660
there's great success and
they're jumping up and down,

1:06:11.659 --> 1:06:16.549
okay this is true,
but then it peaks and then over

1:06:16.545 --> 1:06:18.635
time it falls down.

1:06:18.639 --> 1:06:22.389
What's happening here is a
small fraction of the women--

1:06:22.389 --> 1:06:25.119
well 20% is not terrible,
but a small fraction of the

1:06:25.117 --> 1:06:27.527
women,
before the program comes in,

1:06:27.525 --> 1:06:29.455
want to limit their births.

1:06:29.460 --> 1:06:32.530
You give them anything,
they accept it immediately.

1:06:32.530 --> 1:06:35.310
That this initial rise and
that's very standard for family

1:06:35.313 --> 1:06:36.293
planning programs.

1:06:36.289 --> 1:06:41.099
That you get an initial rise
and then it falls off,

1:06:41.099 --> 1:06:43.479
and over the long term if
you're evaluating the program

1:06:43.476 --> 1:06:46.976
here you think it's wonderful,
but if you're evaluating the

1:06:46.980 --> 1:06:49.690
program here it's kind of
worthless.

1:06:49.690 --> 1:06:53.190
Veena was talking about that,
that she comes out of this

1:06:53.193 --> 1:06:57.143
economic World Bank perspective
and they're very impressed with

1:06:57.143 --> 1:06:58.803
these periods of time.

1:06:58.800 --> 1:07:01.430
This is a program that,
in retrospect,

1:07:01.427 --> 1:07:05.397
we would say really didn't
work, although it helps a fair

1:07:05.402 --> 1:07:07.252
fraction of the women.

1:07:07.250 --> 1:07:10.670
Then you put in the good
program that I described to you

1:07:10.668 --> 1:07:12.828
and now what happens,
the later time,

1:07:12.833 --> 1:07:16.993
so we stop the previous--
the previous graph stopped in

1:07:16.989 --> 1:07:22.039
1977 at this level of
contraceptive acceptance,

1:07:22.039 --> 1:07:23.459
so they had a program that
didn't work,

1:07:23.460 --> 1:07:27.150
and then they start sending
these village working women into

1:07:27.146 --> 1:07:31.206
the homes of the other women and
now you get another big rise,

1:07:31.210 --> 1:07:32.610
that this is now successful
immediately,

1:07:32.610 --> 1:07:37.550
but now the success continues.

1:07:37.550 --> 1:07:41.440
Meanwhile there's modernization
and there's social diffusion

1:07:41.440 --> 1:07:44.290
that these areas,
the comparison areas are

1:07:44.293 --> 1:07:47.303
actually intermixed with the
treatment areas,

1:07:47.300 --> 1:07:50.410
and they hear a lot about
what's going on in there and so

1:07:50.409 --> 1:07:52.519
for that reason and others are
not--

1:07:52.518 --> 1:07:54.588
we don't really have data to
say why a rise,

1:07:54.590 --> 1:07:58.070
but even in the comparison area
it starts to rise.

1:07:58.070 --> 1:08:01.090
In one of your readings about
Taiwan where you have family

1:08:01.088 --> 1:08:03.258
planning, a very similar kind of
thing.

1:08:03.260 --> 1:08:05.720
It makes a big point that,
they did have some data,

1:08:05.719 --> 1:08:08.369
that they had villages where
they had a family planning

1:08:08.369 --> 1:08:10.489
program,
and then as soon as this was

1:08:10.489 --> 1:08:13.879
heard about in the surrounding
regions people would come into

1:08:13.876 --> 1:08:16.926
the treatment region to get
treatment so fertility goes

1:08:16.925 --> 1:08:17.485
down.

1:08:17.488 --> 1:08:26.948
One of the factors behind this
is certainly diffusion of the

1:08:26.949 --> 1:08:31.279
ideas of family planning.

1:08:31.279 --> 1:08:37.239
This thing in Bangladesh has
had terrible significance for

1:08:37.237 --> 1:08:43.297
what we believe about family
planning programs and people's

1:08:43.300 --> 1:08:47.180
acceptance of it,
because up until this time it

1:08:47.180 --> 1:08:50.560
was really dogma that you have
to have economic development and

1:08:50.560 --> 1:08:52.850
you have to have a degree of
literacy,

1:08:52.850 --> 1:08:56.750
and you have to have some
degree of women's status before

1:08:56.747 --> 1:08:59.877
people would want to limit their
fertility.

1:08:59.880 --> 1:09:04.190
Then you go into Bangladesh
with a well funded,

1:09:04.189 --> 1:09:07.369
well thought out,
well run program,

1:09:07.373 --> 1:09:09.813
and it starts working.

1:09:09.810 --> 1:09:13.680
Now Bangladesh is--its
fertility has kept falling and

1:09:13.680 --> 1:09:18.000
it's in there with a lot of
countries that are a lot richer

1:09:17.996 --> 1:09:18.886
than it.

1:09:18.890 --> 1:09:21.810
India is as lot richer,
Egypt is a lot richer than

1:09:21.814 --> 1:09:25.224
Bangladesh, and they all now
have come to more or less the

1:09:25.219 --> 1:09:27.189
same kind of fertility level.

1:09:27.189 --> 1:09:32.869
It now is no longer really
believed--

1:09:32.868 --> 1:09:35.858
it's believed that women almost
everywhere,

1:09:35.859 --> 1:09:38.969
in this case it must be the
men, because the men and the

1:09:38.974 --> 1:09:41.074
mother-in-law's control the
issue--

1:09:41.069 --> 1:09:43.129
really do want to reduce
fertility and if you give them

1:09:43.134 --> 1:09:48.734
the option,
they will accept it.

1:09:48.729 --> 1:09:54.869
Along the way other places have
learned other lessons,

1:09:54.868 --> 1:09:59.588
so India next door had a much
stronger central government

1:09:59.591 --> 1:10:03.881
because of the Gandhi effect,
Gandhi was such a national hero

1:10:03.881 --> 1:10:05.731
to all the ethnic groups in
India,

1:10:05.729 --> 1:10:09.019
so the government was strong
and Nehru was very strong,

1:10:09.020 --> 1:10:11.850
and Nehru's daughter
Mrs. Gandhi was very strong,

1:10:11.850 --> 1:10:15.450
and they were Westernized,
under the Malthusian influence,

1:10:15.448 --> 1:10:19.578
and they decided that they need
a family planning program also.

1:10:19.578 --> 1:10:24.818
Actually India was even before
this, but again they didn't know

1:10:24.818 --> 1:10:28.788
to do it, and they decided to
use incentives.

1:10:28.788 --> 1:10:30.268
That's when economists keep
telling us,

1:10:30.270 --> 1:10:31.790
every time you take an
economics course,

1:10:31.788 --> 1:10:35.518
people respond to incentives
and so they decided to use

1:10:35.520 --> 1:10:39.250
incentives to get people to take
on family planning.

1:10:39.250 --> 1:10:43.760
There's a lot of debate about
this issue of incentives and one

1:10:43.755 --> 1:10:47.295
part of it,
one article I read about people

1:10:47.298 --> 1:10:51.428
in villages in Nepal like the
one that Veena was in,

1:10:51.426 --> 1:10:52.556
pretty far.

1:10:52.560 --> 1:10:56.450
They have to take a whole day
off from work to go down to get

1:10:56.448 --> 1:10:58.648
a contraceptive,
then they have to go back,

1:10:58.653 --> 1:11:01.303
and what kind can they get,
because they can't go this

1:11:01.304 --> 1:11:03.414
every month to get something
new,

1:11:03.408 --> 1:11:06.988
and they can't take time off
from their work or their chores,

1:11:06.988 --> 1:11:09.868
so it's a real major economic
expense.

1:11:09.868 --> 1:11:13.448
Not the contraceptive itself,
but the time and effort needed

1:11:13.445 --> 1:11:16.715
if they have to take a bus,
it may be very expensive in

1:11:16.719 --> 1:11:17.809
their economy.

1:11:17.810 --> 1:11:26.150
So part of the idea of giving
incentives is to just repay the

1:11:26.150 --> 1:11:30.600
woman for her time and effort.

1:11:30.600 --> 1:11:33.630
India had started out that way
but the program was not very

1:11:33.631 --> 1:11:35.881
well run,
it wasn't--they didn't have the

1:11:35.881 --> 1:11:38.861
big international help that
Bangladesh had and the program

1:11:38.863 --> 1:11:41.403
wasn't terribly well run,
and so they sort of got

1:11:41.396 --> 1:11:44.046
frustrated at the results and
their population kept going and

1:11:44.051 --> 1:11:47.981
there was a time in India,
way before this current boom

1:11:47.975 --> 1:11:50.595
that India is--
has been going through,

1:11:50.595 --> 1:11:52.765
and may or may not still be
going through,

1:11:52.770 --> 1:11:56.060
and so the government got
frustrated and the population

1:11:56.064 --> 1:11:59.204
grew and they saw their hopes,
there's this window of

1:11:59.195 --> 1:12:02.135
opportunity that I was talking
about from modernization,

1:12:02.140 --> 1:12:04.690
if the population gets too
dense that window may close.

1:12:04.689 --> 1:12:11.199
The government got desperate
and started introducing some

1:12:11.203 --> 1:12:14.453
coercion,
some of it is incentive like

1:12:14.445 --> 1:12:17.875
transistor radios to the men--
to get the men to get

1:12:17.877 --> 1:12:20.787
sterilized and that was
wonderful but who got

1:12:20.787 --> 1:12:23.337
sterilized,
the old men that weren't going

1:12:23.344 --> 1:12:26.864
to have children anyway,
but I get a transistor radio or

1:12:26.858 --> 1:12:28.528
some money out of this.

1:12:28.529 --> 1:12:32.659
The whole thing crashed and it
came entangled as in America,

1:12:32.658 --> 1:12:36.658
reproduction and politics,
so the opposition to the--

1:12:36.658 --> 1:12:40.948
people didn't especially like
it because it's changing their

1:12:40.952 --> 1:12:41.682
culture.

1:12:41.680 --> 1:12:44.840
But, the opposition took hold
of it and blew up all the

1:12:44.844 --> 1:12:47.114
abuses,
no question there were abuses,

1:12:47.112 --> 1:12:50.062
blew up the abuses,
the newspapers blared the

1:12:50.063 --> 1:12:54.533
abuses and it became a very big
political thing and the Congress

1:12:54.530 --> 1:12:57.440
Party government fell because of
that.

1:12:57.439 --> 1:13:00.889
India has since sort of--then
they went through a period where

1:13:00.886 --> 1:13:04.106
they sort of did nothing in
family planning because it was

1:13:04.109 --> 1:13:07.099
in such bad favor and now
they've started up again and

1:13:07.104 --> 1:13:09.144
things are going a lot better.

1:13:09.140 --> 1:13:15.220
I think the story of this is
that the idea which was

1:13:15.217 --> 1:13:20.937
prevalent up until the
Bangladesh experiment,

1:13:20.939 --> 1:13:24.569
that only rich countries are
going to reduce their fertility

1:13:24.565 --> 1:13:28.325
is just plain wrong,
and now as the fertility

1:13:28.332 --> 1:13:32.522
transition goes through Asia,
it's now amazing,

1:13:32.523 --> 1:13:35.853
places--very poor places what's
happening there.

1:13:35.850 --> 1:13:39.370
Ceylon was one of the first
countries in Asia to get down to

1:13:39.367 --> 1:13:42.837
replacement level,
very poor, Ceylon is not a rich

1:13:42.837 --> 1:13:44.897
place,
Kerala one of the poorest

1:13:44.895 --> 1:13:47.805
provinces of India is down at
replacement level;

1:13:47.810 --> 1:13:51.160
all kinds of countries
Thailand, Indonesia,

1:13:51.155 --> 1:13:55.535
all have really reduced their
fertility at amazingly low

1:13:55.538 --> 1:13:58.088
levels of per capita income.

1:13:58.090 --> 1:14:00.740
Income is clearly important,
one doesn't want to throw it

1:14:00.738 --> 1:14:02.608
out,
it's perfectly clear that

1:14:02.608 --> 1:14:06.238
things are easier if you have
more money and there's reasons

1:14:06.237 --> 1:14:09.927
why richer people have fewer
children which we'll go into but

1:14:09.929 --> 1:14:12.389
it is not a necessary
prerequisite.

1:14:12.390 --> 1:14:16.670
We will see--have a good
vacation, enjoy,

1:14:16.672 --> 1:14:21.602
come back refreshed and I will
see you then.

1:14:21.600 --> 1:14:27.000