WEBVTT 00:02.210 --> 00:03.980 Prof: Let me start. 00:03.980 --> 00:08.010 I'm going to read you something and you have to guess what kind 00:08.010 --> 00:09.830 of a scene I'm describing. 00:09.830 --> 00:13.860 "A ghostly stillness descended over the country, 00:13.856 --> 00:17.026 this country today, with every restaurant, 00:17.030 --> 00:20.360 bar and teahouse in the country closed. 00:20.360 --> 00:25.280 Every store shuttered and police patrolling the streets to 00:25.281 --> 00:29.081 make sure no citizen dare to step outside. 00:29.080 --> 00:32.490 Avenues normally clogged with traffic were so empty that 00:32.491 --> 00:36.281 picnics could have been held on them, except that nobody would 00:36.275 --> 00:38.255 have been allowed to attend. 00:38.260 --> 00:42.120 Plazas that are perpetual nightmares of congestion and 00:42.122 --> 00:46.352 exhaust fumes were abandoned to wandering dogs and cats. 00:46.350 --> 00:50.770 It was also a good day for the fish because the thousands of 00:50.770 --> 00:54.820 fishermen who line the shorelines on Sunday were all at 00:54.815 --> 00:55.485 home. 00:55.490 --> 00:58.990 The waterway itself, one of the world's busiest 00:58.987 --> 01:03.167 waterways, was as flat and silent as a woodland pond. 01:03.170 --> 01:07.180 The government decreed a six-month term--jail term for 01:07.182 --> 01:10.742 any citizen who didn't spend the day at home. 01:10.739 --> 01:14.459 All in all, the country today looked like a land on which a 01:14.456 --> 01:18.366 neutron bomb had been dropped devastating the population while 01:18.367 --> 01:21.057 leaving the buildings undamaged." 01:21.060 --> 01:23.020 What do you think it is? 01:23.019 --> 01:25.069 It's drastic. 01:25.069 --> 01:26.799 Student: The plague? 01:26.799 --> 01:30.029 Prof: Nope, good, reasonable guess, 01:30.030 --> 01:30.740 but no. 01:30.739 --> 01:34.709 Governments weren't as strong then. 01:34.709 --> 01:38.709 It's the census day in Turkey. 01:38.709 --> 01:42.869 Some places take their census' very seriously and require that 01:42.873 --> 01:47.243 people really be in the place of their residence so that they can 01:47.242 --> 01:51.342 be counted and that they get a very good set of numbers. 01:51.340 --> 01:57.890 The waterway that they're talking about between Europe and 01:57.887 --> 02:00.527 Asia running through? 02:00.530 --> 02:01.350 Student: The Bosporus. 02:01.349 --> 02:02.889 Prof: The Bosporus, right. 02:02.890 --> 02:05.690 Now compare this to another country. 02:05.688 --> 02:10.858 An educated and motivated guy got one of the temporary jobs as 02:10.859 --> 02:12.299 a census taker. 02:12.300 --> 02:16.390 He was high class enough to get an article published in The 02:16.388 --> 02:17.928 Atlantic Monthly. 02:17.930 --> 02:19.380 This is New York City. 02:19.377 --> 02:21.747 I'll tell you because you'll guess. 02:21.750 --> 02:24.040 He was 6'4" and Caucasian. 02:24.039 --> 02:26.519 They sent him to Chinatown. 02:26.520 --> 02:30.680 People took one look at him and slammed the door. 02:30.680 --> 02:33.780 Others offered him money to go away; 02:33.780 --> 02:38.290 even most of those who tried to cooperate did not have time to 02:38.291 --> 02:40.141 fill out the long form. 02:40.139 --> 02:42.929 He asked to be assigned to another area. 02:42.930 --> 02:45.320 He got Wall Street. 02:45.318 --> 02:47.928 Same story, no one would cooperate with him. 02:47.930 --> 02:52.000 He couldn't even get into one building, but this was a 02:51.997 --> 02:54.297 motivated guy, like a Yalie. 02:54.300 --> 02:56.820 He climbed onto the roof of the next building, 02:56.818 --> 02:59.628 the building next door, he jumped over the partition, 02:59.628 --> 03:03.358 not across the street but over the partition -- 03:03.360 --> 03:08.490 to get into the building that he was supposed to take the 03:08.490 --> 03:09.590 census of. 03:09.590 --> 03:12.830 Right there on the roof was a dilapidated shack. 03:12.830 --> 03:15.080 Okay maybe someone's living in the shack. 03:15.080 --> 03:19.800 He knocks on the door, someone inside flings open the 03:19.804 --> 03:20.444 door. 03:20.438 --> 03:25.078 Inside he could see several apparently naked people lying on 03:25.084 --> 03:26.584 hospital gurneys. 03:26.580 --> 03:30.320 The man who opened the door was wearing a white coat, 03:30.324 --> 03:31.764 "Go away!" 03:31.764 --> 03:34.504 He screamed, "I'm giving my wife a 03:34.502 --> 03:36.162 cancer treatment." 03:36.158 --> 03:37.598 New York City. 03:37.598 --> 03:42.118 A more experienced census taker told him that he wasn't doing it 03:42.116 --> 03:42.686 right. 03:42.690 --> 03:45.410 What you have to do is what they say, "curbstone 03:45.413 --> 03:45.993 it". 03:45.990 --> 03:49.890 What that means is you sit on the sidewalk and guess how many 03:49.893 --> 03:52.043 apartments are in the building. 03:52.038 --> 03:54.268 You look up at the building, you guess how many apartments 03:54.266 --> 03:56.926 in the building, and fill out that many forms 03:56.931 --> 04:00.981 with guesses about how many people live in each apartment. 04:00.979 --> 04:04.099 That's the way censuses are done in New York City, 04:04.098 --> 04:05.688 a comparison to Turkey. 04:05.688 --> 04:10.308 Now these are describing the 1990 Census. 04:10.310 --> 04:13.470 I'll get to the 2000 Census in a moment. 04:13.468 --> 04:16.638 That census was the most expensive ever, 04:16.639 --> 04:19.079 it missed more than two million children, 04:19.079 --> 04:21.819 of course mostly minority children, 04:21.819 --> 04:24.599 and imagine what this does for school planning, 04:24.600 --> 04:27.730 etcetera, etcetera, it missed all together-- 04:27.730 --> 04:31.480 not counting just children--ten million people and it double 04:31.480 --> 04:34.650 counted, or it counted in the wrong 04:34.649 --> 04:37.879 place another six million people. 04:37.879 --> 04:41.879 Between censuses the census bureau uses the count of the 04:41.882 --> 04:44.652 last census to make its projections. 04:44.649 --> 04:47.439 They know the population is increasing every year, 04:47.440 --> 04:49.490 how much do we have now, now, now? 04:49.490 --> 04:52.940 By the time they came from the 1990 to the 2000 Census, 04:52.942 --> 04:56.462 there were seven million more people in America then the 04:56.458 --> 04:58.758 Census Bureau thought there was. 04:58.759 --> 05:02.739 The population had been increasing something like one 05:02.744 --> 05:06.274 and half times what they had thought it was. 05:06.269 --> 05:07.809 Does this slop matter? 05:07.810 --> 05:11.130 The poor quality of the United States census. 05:11.129 --> 05:15.299 Well, nowadays these numbers might seem small but more than 05:15.303 --> 05:19.263 $185 billion dollars a year in federal aid to states are 05:19.262 --> 05:22.792 apportioned according to the census results, 05:22.790 --> 05:25.890 so every state really wants its people counted. 05:25.889 --> 05:28.059 On top of that, what else is apportioned 05:28.062 --> 05:29.512 depending on the census? 05:29.509 --> 05:33.079 Congress, the House of Representatives is apportioned, 05:33.081 --> 05:37.121 so people want their state to have as many representatives as 05:37.124 --> 05:38.004 possible. 05:38.000 --> 05:41.510 Given the importance of this, why is it so bad? 05:41.509 --> 05:45.429 Why is the U.S.***Census so bad? 05:45.430 --> 05:48.270 The answer is primarily politics. 05:48.269 --> 05:51.189 It is well known, the kind of problems that this 05:51.185 --> 05:54.345 census taker had in New York is very well known, 05:54.350 --> 05:57.850 and it's well known that these people that are considered 05:57.848 --> 05:59.908 somewhat marginal: minorities, 05:59.910 --> 06:03.710 immigrants, poor people, they are heavily undercounted. 06:03.709 --> 06:05.389 This is well known. 06:05.389 --> 06:09.119 The problem is that these people don't vote Republican and 06:09.117 --> 06:12.517 when this story that I'm telling you takes place, 06:12.519 --> 06:15.439 the Republicans controlled the House of Representatives, 06:15.439 --> 06:20.979 which controls the budget. 06:20.980 --> 06:25.720 The census has been missing this eight-- 06:25.720 --> 06:28.470 ten million for the 1990 Census, eight million for 06:28.468 --> 06:30.378 before, roughly eight to ten million 06:30.384 --> 06:33.194 people, and again, it's these minority 06:33.189 --> 06:34.999 groups, minorities, renters, 06:35.002 --> 06:37.372 urban dwellers, and so Democrats--and they 06:37.365 --> 06:40.885 generally vote Democrat-- and the Democrats have been 06:40.887 --> 06:46.097 pushing to get them counted, to make an accurate account. 06:46.100 --> 06:50.250 But a Republican redistricting expert wrote a memorandum in 06:50.254 --> 06:54.704 1997 predicting that adjustment could cost the Republican Party 06:54.697 --> 06:58.287 24 house seats, which is a huge amount. 06:58.290 --> 07:00.640 So, since then, the Republicans have blocked 07:00.641 --> 07:02.501 any modernization of the census. 07:02.500 --> 07:07.130 For the year 2000 Census, President Clinton appointed a 07:07.132 --> 07:11.762 new director of the Census Bureau, a woman named Martha 07:11.764 --> 07:14.944 Riche who we've had here at Yale. 07:14.939 --> 07:18.569 She came out of a scientific and research environment and was 07:18.574 --> 07:21.854 really very competent, scholarly, knew how to do it 07:21.846 --> 07:24.176 right, and she announced when she came 07:24.182 --> 07:26.332 into office, "All industrial 07:26.327 --> 07:29.947 democracies will be holding a census in the year 2000. 07:29.949 --> 07:33.829 We want the United States to win a gold medal for 07:33.834 --> 07:35.214 accuracy." 07:35.209 --> 07:36.259 She thought she was smart. 07:36.259 --> 07:39.639 In fact of course she missed the boat, because she thought 07:39.637 --> 07:42.187 she was supposed to make an accurate census, 07:42.185 --> 07:44.965 and no, that wasn't what she was hired for. 07:44.970 --> 07:50.210 What she had proposed was a statistical way of dealing with 07:50.206 --> 07:50.836 this. 07:50.839 --> 07:53.609 You know the groups that you've missed, 07:53.610 --> 07:55.730 you know where they live, so after you've counted 07:55.730 --> 07:58.030 everyone as well as you can in the whole country, 07:58.029 --> 07:59.859 you go back to the inner city neighborhoods, 07:59.860 --> 08:03.810 the various places where you know that you're going to miss 08:03.807 --> 08:06.867 people and you really blanket that and do-- 08:06.870 --> 08:09.420 those areas very carefully, a sample across the country. 08:09.420 --> 08:12.310 Then you find out what your errors are in that large sample 08:12.309 --> 08:14.699 and then you can adjust the whole population, 08:14.699 --> 08:17.609 assuming you made the same mistakes everywhere. 08:17.610 --> 08:22.740 She was very open, that's what she planned to do. 08:22.740 --> 08:25.860 At the time, though, Newt Gingrich, 08:25.860 --> 08:29.400 I don't know if you know that name with the New Deal for 08:29.396 --> 08:32.836 America or something, was the Speaker of the House, 08:32.837 --> 08:35.417 controlled the budget, and he said, 08:35.423 --> 08:38.973 'yup, you have the authority to do that, 08:38.970 --> 08:40.670 you're the Director of the budget , 08:40.668 --> 08:44.008 but, if you do that, I will cut your budget to 08:44.005 --> 08:44.595 zero.' 08:44.600 --> 08:49.070 Basically she wasn't allowed to do that and so she had to 08:49.071 --> 08:49.791 resign. 08:49.788 --> 08:55.018 She just would not do a census that was less then what we're 08:55.024 --> 08:56.714 capable of doing. 08:56.710 --> 09:00.340 The census was done the old fashioned way, 09:00.339 --> 09:05.289 it cost $1.7 billion dollars more than it would have with 09:05.294 --> 09:09.814 sampling and was not anywhere near as accurate. 09:09.808 --> 09:14.718 Now these same considerations apply almost everywhere. 09:14.720 --> 09:18.230 In China, for instance, you know about the one child 09:18.231 --> 09:22.021 policy and the government is strongly trying to push the 09:22.020 --> 09:23.330 birthrate down. 09:23.330 --> 09:27.320 We'll talk about this later in much more detail. 09:27.320 --> 09:31.550 A provincial official gets the word this is-- 09:31.548 --> 09:34.618 we want your population growth rate to be no more than whatever 09:34.615 --> 09:37.875 percentage and then he sends it down to the prefecture and down. 09:37.879 --> 09:39.219 Do you think any of these officials, 09:39.220 --> 09:41.300 after the census, are going send up information 09:41.297 --> 09:43.237 that they have not been doing their job, 09:43.240 --> 09:44.890 that the birthrate is higher? 09:44.889 --> 09:49.239 No, so there's problems with that. 09:49.240 --> 09:50.660 Who collects this data? 09:50.658 --> 09:54.188 Well luckily several--many organizations collect the data 09:54.190 --> 09:55.640 but primarily the UN. 09:55.639 --> 09:58.529 Who owns the UN? 09:58.529 --> 10:04.779 Member countries, and if you are, 10:04.782 --> 10:07.682 say, a conservative religious 10:07.678 --> 10:10.988 country, and if the UN demographer says that contrary 10:10.991 --> 10:14.011 to government statistics, that there actually is a high 10:14.010 --> 10:16.030 rate of illegitimacy or abortion in the country, 10:16.028 --> 10:19.308 all of which comes out of the statistics, 10:19.308 --> 10:21.668 they're not going to allow that to be published, 10:21.668 --> 10:24.848 so the UN has to sort of cut some corners so that the 10:24.851 --> 10:28.341 countries from who it is dependent on to get the data, 10:28.340 --> 10:33.030 will continue to send them the data. 10:33.029 --> 10:36.029 In addition, even when a country tries, 10:36.029 --> 10:37.439 there are something like 50 million-- 10:37.440 --> 10:40.680 birth registrations not done everywhere in the world and 10:40.683 --> 10:43.283 there's something like 50 million babies, 10:43.279 --> 10:45.979 worldwide, who were never registered, 10:45.980 --> 10:49.240 they don't exist on the official registers, 10:49.240 --> 10:51.220 so when you try to do what demographers do, 10:51.220 --> 10:55.180 you have a count of--a count of a census in one year, 10:55.178 --> 10:57.248 you have a count of a census in a later year, 10:57.250 --> 10:59.630 in between you have a list of births and deaths, 10:59.629 --> 11:01.479 supposedly both births are registered and deaths are 11:01.480 --> 11:03.960 registered, and you see is this reasonable? 11:03.960 --> 11:06.400 Is the difference accounted for by births, deaths, 11:06.404 --> 11:09.404 and migration if you have reasonable amounts of migration. 11:09.399 --> 11:16.089 If millions of the babies are just not registered you can't 11:16.085 --> 11:22.305 check things that way, so there's a lot of problems. 11:22.308 --> 11:25.758 Another thing is that in many, many countries there's conflict 11:25.764 --> 11:29.254 between different groups, we've talked about Democratic, 11:29.254 --> 11:31.354 Republican in the United States. 11:31.350 --> 11:35.450 In Nigeria, in Sudan, there's a huge conflict between 11:35.452 --> 11:39.792 the Muslim populations in the north and the Christian or 11:39.791 --> 11:42.711 Animist populations in the south. 11:42.710 --> 11:46.150 You may or may not recall the Biafra War in Nigeria, 11:46.154 --> 11:49.534 a huge war between basically--over oil--but between 11:49.529 --> 11:52.569 the Muslim north and the Christian south; 11:52.570 --> 11:57.200 millions of deaths and millions of deaths now currently in Sudan 11:57.196 --> 11:59.836 over something of a similar issue. 11:59.840 --> 12:03.840 When censuses in ethnically or religiously split countries are 12:03.839 --> 12:05.919 taken, the key event is the ratio, 12:05.923 --> 12:09.023 the key outcome that everybody wants to know is the ratio 12:09.019 --> 12:12.109 between how many Christians, how many Muslims, 12:12.105 --> 12:14.425 how many this, how many that. 12:14.428 --> 12:21.518 And so the censuses get totally distorted by people trying to 12:21.520 --> 12:28.140 raise their numbers and lower everyone else's numbers. 12:28.139 --> 12:32.999 Before the Biafra War there was apparently a reasonably accurate 12:33.003 --> 12:37.303 census in 1952 to 1953, then the Biafra War intervened, 12:37.302 --> 12:41.372 and the next several censuses were very controversial. 12:41.370 --> 12:45.620 So the accepted official figures, in Nigeria, 12:45.621 --> 12:50.361 were 88.5 million people, but the World Bank said, 12:50.356 --> 12:54.316 no, that's wrong, 102 million people. 12:54.320 --> 12:57.890 The United Nations: 120 million people. 12:57.889 --> 13:00.999 So, basically, for a country as big and as 13:00.998 --> 13:05.318 important as Nigeria for their last census we have figures 13:05.318 --> 13:09.108 ranging between 88.5 million and 120 million, 13:09.110 --> 13:15.250 a 50% uncertainty for Nigeria, so big. 13:15.250 --> 13:19.740 The point of this initial part, point one, 13:19.740 --> 13:22.480 is that even the simplest numbers like headcounts, 13:22.480 --> 13:24.660 we're not doing anything fancy, we're just trying to count how 13:24.657 --> 13:27.217 many people there are, 1,2, 3,4, 5, 13:27.215 --> 13:35.265 there are systematic errors and very often those errors are 13:35.267 --> 13:37.347 intentional. 13:37.350 --> 13:40.720 Now all of these numbers--well I say when I described these 13:40.716 --> 13:43.266 numbers and I probably won't do it enough. 13:43.269 --> 13:47.699 When I put up a demographic number it should almost always 13:47.695 --> 13:51.295 be qualified by, 'and there are large and 13:51.303 --> 13:56.463 unknown error bars,' but we don't have error bars for it. 13:56.460 --> 13:59.750 Various organizations collect all this data and this is called 13:59.745 --> 14:03.045 the Population Reference Bureau, which is a source of statistics 14:03.053 --> 14:06.943 and news, everything about population and 14:06.942 --> 14:10.002 it's a very big sheet here. 14:10.000 --> 14:13.630 I'll show it to you blown up and it has every region of the 14:13.634 --> 14:16.784 world, every country of the world, 14:16.782 --> 14:21.752 and a large number of demographic statistics for each 14:21.754 --> 14:23.864 of these countries. 14:23.860 --> 14:34.850 Let's look at one of these, so here is one page of this 14:34.852 --> 14:42.592 sheet--can you see that well enough? 14:42.590 --> 14:46.460 I don't need to put the lights out. 14:46.460 --> 14:50.780 What you see is the various numbers that they count, 14:50.779 --> 14:55.499 population, birthrate, death rate, rate of increase, 14:55.500 --> 14:59.530 migration rate, in or out, plus for coming in, 14:59.529 --> 15:04.089 out for going out, what their projected population 15:04.089 --> 15:07.529 is for 2025 or 2050, and so forth down there, 15:07.533 --> 15:10.683 a number that we'll try to get to describe later called the 15:10.682 --> 15:13.232 total fertility rate, which is more or less the 15:13.234 --> 15:15.054 number of children women are expect-- 15:15.048 --> 15:18.568 will have as they go through their lifetime. 15:18.570 --> 15:21.250 Then on this side it's broken down first into the world, 15:21.250 --> 15:23.440 broken down by level of development, 15:23.440 --> 15:27.530 then by geographic region, so there are a lot of really 15:27.527 --> 15:31.737 very good data, very clearly put on here, 15:31.738 --> 15:38.118 and you can look first at the world's population here, 15:38.120 --> 15:40.150 so that's the first number in the whole thing. 15:40.149 --> 15:46.419 This is the middle of 2008 so there were 6.7 billion people on 15:46.419 --> 15:48.989 earth and still rising. 15:48.990 --> 15:54.950 The expectation for mid-2025 is 8 billion and for 2050,9.3 or 15:54.948 --> 15:56.338 9.4 billion. 15:56.340 --> 16:00.580 Those are guesses about the future and I'll tell you maybe a 16:00.578 --> 16:03.308 little bit about how those are done. 16:03.308 --> 16:12.388 Look now at the birthrate here, so this is births per 1,000 16:12.393 --> 16:20.383 population and the birthrate of the world is 21, 16:20.379 --> 16:23.059 and I'm going to go crazy going back and forth there. 16:23.059 --> 16:27.219 How accurate is that? 16:27.220 --> 16:30.250 Again we don't know, large and uncertain error bars, 16:30.250 --> 16:33.180 it's something like a third of the children in the world that 16:33.182 --> 16:35.822 don't have proper birth certificates and you can't know 16:35.823 --> 16:37.783 whether they've been counted at all. 16:37.779 --> 16:39.999 Another thing that you should notice about the way it gets 16:40.003 --> 16:42.573 organized-- is not only the world when it 16:42.567 --> 16:46.397 breaks it down into development categories there's less 16:46.397 --> 16:49.917 developed countries, that includes China and less 16:49.917 --> 16:52.317 developed countries excluding China. 16:52.320 --> 16:56.420 It's important to get those two things different because China 16:56.416 --> 17:01.256 is considered very exceptional, 1) because of its one child 17:01.255 --> 17:06.265 policy and they think that the birthrate is abnormally 17:06.273 --> 17:09.203 depressed, and 2) it's tremendous rate of 17:09.202 --> 17:10.382 economic development. 17:10.380 --> 17:13.670 If you want a real characterization of the less 17:13.665 --> 17:16.695 developed countries, even though China's average 17:16.699 --> 17:20.659 income is very low, it's changing very rapidly, 17:20.660 --> 17:26.740 then you do it without China and you get different numbers 17:26.740 --> 17:27.700 there. 17:27.700 --> 17:40.490 Look next at the birthrate for--the birthrate for the whole 17:40.490 --> 17:49.640 world is 21 per 1,000 per year, and the birthrate for the less 17:49.644 --> 17:53.244 developed countries is 23, not a big difference. 17:53.240 --> 17:55.780 Why is that? 17:55.779 --> 17:56.409 How come it's so close? 17:56.410 --> 17:59.760 Whereas, for the developed countries it's 12, 17:59.760 --> 18:03.870 why is the birthrate for the world so close to the less 18:03.873 --> 18:04.943 developed? 18:04.940 --> 18:06.280 Student: Because the majority of the population 18:06.282 --> 18:06.932 resides in those places. 18:06.930 --> 18:09.490 Prof: Right, the overwhelming majority of 18:09.490 --> 18:12.380 the population is in the less developed countries, 18:12.380 --> 18:14.900 so whatever we understand about that, 18:14.900 --> 18:23.640 that is what we have to--that is characteristic of the world. 18:23.640 --> 18:32.960 This difference in birthrate between say 12 in the more 18:32.961 --> 18:40.601 developed countries and say 23, 26, even 36 for the least 18:40.595 --> 18:43.615 developed countries, that is a huge difference. 18:43.618 --> 18:48.208 It's a factor of three between the most developed and the least 18:48.208 --> 18:51.558 developed, and a factor of something like 18:51.560 --> 18:53.650 2.5-- over 2 in between, 18:53.651 --> 18:57.591 which means that now most of the world is-- 18:57.588 --> 19:01.698 in the underdeveloped countries most of the population and that 19:01.702 --> 19:04.492 will continue and will get more extreme. 19:04.490 --> 19:09.600 Here is an example of that, this is--we are now about here 19:09.603 --> 19:13.733 and the more developed regions like the U.S. 19:13.730 --> 19:18.780 are still growing very slightly but basically going to be flat 19:18.776 --> 19:21.916 as far as one can project out here, 19:21.920 --> 19:25.060 but the less developed countries are undergoing this 19:25.055 --> 19:26.465 population explosion. 19:26.470 --> 19:31.690 If the ratio between the less developed countries and the 19:31.691 --> 19:37.191 developed regions is this now, that will only increase after 19:37.191 --> 19:38.871 2050 out here. 19:38.868 --> 19:43.108 This--that the world is demographically characterized by 19:43.112 --> 19:45.892 the poor countries is a fact now, 19:45.890 --> 19:48.910 and a much better fact, as time goes on, 19:48.910 --> 19:52.120 a more complete fact. 19:52.118 --> 19:55.388 That's--the first point is about inaccuracies of 19:55.385 --> 19:58.075 statistics, the second one here is that 19:58.076 --> 20:01.636 it's not the developed countries when you think of what's 20:01.636 --> 20:05.256 happening in world population don't think of the developed 20:05.261 --> 20:08.811 countries, what's happening is what's 20:08.813 --> 20:14.173 happening the underdeveloped countries or the developing 20:14.173 --> 20:15.443 countries. 20:15.440 --> 20:17.990 Now let's shift and look at the death rate. 20:17.990 --> 20:21.270 We looked a little at the birthrate, and you notice 20:21.273 --> 20:26.383 something very interesting; here's the birthrate we've just 20:26.384 --> 20:31.454 been saying for the world 21 per 1,000 per year. 20:31.450 --> 20:35.330 Look at the death rate, eight, that means there's more 20:35.325 --> 20:38.685 than two and a half times in the world now-- 20:38.690 --> 20:43.660 there's two and a half times as many births as there are deaths, 20:43.660 --> 20:50.260 an enormous difference and you can compare, 20:50.259 --> 20:53.639 in the less developed regions, there's something like three 20:53.636 --> 20:56.196 times as many births as there are deaths, 20:56.200 --> 21:00.630 9 deaths, 26 births, so there's a huge-- 21:00.630 --> 21:04.340 right now there's a huge imbalance between the births and 21:04.337 --> 21:05.197 the deaths. 21:05.200 --> 21:07.890 As you know population stability, which many people 21:07.894 --> 21:10.324 think would be a good thing for the world, 21:10.318 --> 21:15.568 depends on the deaths and the births being equal, 21:15.568 --> 21:17.988 which means that the world is out of kilter, 21:17.990 --> 21:21.910 the ratio between births and deaths is now out of kilter by a 21:21.907 --> 21:24.257 factor of something like 2.5 to 3; 21:24.259 --> 21:28.869 2.5 for the world, 3 for the developing countries. 21:28.868 --> 21:33.188 What that means is either the death rate has to come up to 21:33.194 --> 21:37.074 that level or the birthrate has to come down or some 21:37.065 --> 21:38.275 combination. 21:38.279 --> 21:42.459 Part of this is, well, we'll see--what's going 21:42.461 --> 21:46.181 to happen with part of it a bit later. 21:46.180 --> 21:51.280 The major point of this is that the world is very far from 21:51.276 --> 21:53.686 population stabilization. 21:53.690 --> 21:55.710 You've probably heard lots in the news about declining 21:55.712 --> 21:57.792 birthrates in Europe, and Japan and so forth, 21:57.787 --> 21:59.897 and our next lecture will be about that, 21:59.900 --> 22:01.600 will be just about that. 22:01.598 --> 22:04.718 It's not characteristic of the world. 22:04.720 --> 22:08.750 The world is way out of balance, and even in the United 22:08.751 --> 22:13.311 States which is one of the few developing countries that still 22:13.307 --> 22:19.637 is having a population increase, we have 14 births for every 22:19.644 --> 22:23.974 eight deaths, and that's 1 and 3/4 times the 22:23.973 --> 22:28.043 number of births as deaths, so the United States is way out 22:28.039 --> 22:30.569 of whack, and that's births versus deaths. 22:30.568 --> 22:32.608 That doesn't include immigration. 22:32.608 --> 22:35.178 It includes the children of immigrants that are born in this 22:35.183 --> 22:37.063 country but doesn't include immigration, 22:37.058 --> 22:42.608 so our births plus immigration is going to be at least double 22:42.607 --> 22:50.607 our birthrate, so our population is also not 22:50.614 --> 22:55.944 anywhere near balanced. 22:55.940 --> 23:01.000 Okay, now unlike the birthrate which is very different in 23:01.000 --> 23:05.520 different parts of the world, the death rate is not 23:05.518 --> 23:08.228 extraordinarily different. 23:08.230 --> 23:12.440 Here--I see you squinting; can you see it well enough? 23:12.440 --> 23:17.080 The death rate in the developed countries is 10 per 1,000 and in 23:17.082 --> 23:20.882 the less developed countries, again without China, 23:20.881 --> 23:24.881 it's 9 per 1,000, a very small difference. 23:24.880 --> 23:29.160 The reason for that is, is that mortality has fallen-- 23:29.160 --> 23:33.210 because of vaccination programs, especially vaccination 23:33.210 --> 23:36.060 programs, oral rehydration for diarrhea 23:36.064 --> 23:39.304 and a lot of very basic public health matters, 23:39.298 --> 23:41.538 not open heart surgery or anything like that, 23:41.538 --> 23:45.818 but the most basic public health measures has dropped the 23:45.820 --> 23:48.880 death rate in the world tremendously, 23:48.880 --> 23:51.450 again especially the infant death rate. 23:51.450 --> 23:57.850 Sub-Saharan Africa is somewhat of an exception to that. 23:57.848 --> 24:04.398 Anybody remember--maybe you studied it, what I said was sort 24:04.397 --> 24:09.057 of pre-modern death rate, somebody said it, 24:09.058 --> 24:15.998 I think they said it right; about 40 per 1,000 and now it's 24:21.185 --> 24:27.725 and it's not going to decrease an enormous amount more. 24:27.730 --> 24:31.840 Fertility--so the changes in the death, 24:31.838 --> 24:34.128 when you look about the future of population, 24:34.130 --> 24:38.170 further changes in the death rate will have some effect but 24:38.169 --> 24:39.909 not an enormous effect. 24:39.910 --> 24:43.220 Its change in the fertility rate, the whole future world 24:43.220 --> 24:46.530 population depends essentially on the fertility rate. 24:46.529 --> 24:48.669 A little bit from a change in the death rate, 24:48.670 --> 24:52.570 somewhat from people aging, but primarily fertility rate is 24:52.568 --> 24:56.268 what you watch to find out what's going to happen in the 24:56.268 --> 25:00.028 future of world population, unless of course we have atom 25:00.026 --> 25:02.736 bombs or something like that and everybody dies. 25:02.740 --> 25:07.860 Now as an example of this death--flatness of the death 25:07.863 --> 25:13.283 rate -- this is from Egypt, there's a lovely graph notice 25:13.276 --> 25:17.236 the little baby in swaddling clothes. 25:17.240 --> 25:20.300 This is from the Egyptian Statistical Abstract, 25:20.304 --> 25:24.034 the Egyptians published this themselves, and it's not the 25:24.034 --> 25:25.104 most recent. 25:25.098 --> 25:27.838 It goes up to about 1990 and maybe now they've gotten more 25:27.838 --> 25:30.528 computerized and don't dress the things up like that, 25:30.528 --> 25:34.208 but I just liked that and that color is the original color in 25:34.205 --> 25:36.285 the original statistical report. 25:36.288 --> 25:40.978 Notice the number of births increasing continuously with 25:40.977 --> 25:45.577 some small dip here but basically it goes from 1,000 to 25:45.578 --> 25:47.878 up here would be 2,000. 25:47.880 --> 25:51.320 In this period of time the birthrate nearly doubles and 25:51.320 --> 25:53.680 this is absolute number of people, 25:53.680 --> 25:56.250 not a percentage, but look what happens in the 25:56.250 --> 25:58.730 death rate, very little change. 25:58.730 --> 26:02.390 The death rate, starting way back in 1952, 26:02.390 --> 26:05.920 so way before a lot of very modern kind of medical stuff, 26:05.920 --> 26:08.960 so it's basic medical--basic public health, 26:08.960 --> 26:12.130 basic sanitation that's responsible for this. 26:12.130 --> 26:14.960 So the number of deaths is staying more or less constant 26:14.955 --> 26:16.905 and of course the natural increase, 26:16.910 --> 26:19.960 the increase in the population is the difference between births 26:19.961 --> 26:23.111 and deaths, so you have it increasing every 26:23.105 --> 26:24.695 year, you get more and more 26:24.700 --> 26:25.740 population increase. 26:25.740 --> 26:28.620 This is the population explosion and you've seen 26:28.615 --> 26:29.835 numbers like that. 26:29.838 --> 26:34.798 Now is the death rate staying constant? 26:34.799 --> 26:42.229 26:42.230 --> 26:45.310 No, the death rate is not staying--because the population 26:45.307 --> 26:48.217 is increasing and yet you're having the same number of 26:48.220 --> 26:50.980 deaths, so the percentage of the 26:50.982 --> 26:55.982 population that's dying each year is going down slowly, 26:55.980 --> 27:00.290 not at a -- as a percentage -- it is a slow decrease, 27:00.288 --> 27:02.748 so over this period time period and continuing, 27:02.750 --> 27:06.790 the death rate is decreasing but not in a-- 27:06.788 --> 27:11.798 significant enough to make a big difference in the total 27:11.797 --> 27:14.617 population growth statistics. 27:14.618 --> 27:22.098 The basic thing in the world is that the fertility rate is what 27:22.096 --> 27:26.406 can change a lot, can make the difference between 27:26.410 --> 27:30.150 a world whose population keeps growing or stabilizes or starts 27:30.151 --> 27:31.011 decreasing. 27:31.009 --> 27:36.199 Now, anybody notice anything funny so far? 27:36.200 --> 27:40.090 One number that should have--one pair of numbers that 27:40.092 --> 27:41.592 should have--what? 27:41.588 --> 27:46.608 Let's go back to that, anything funny about these 27:46.605 --> 27:47.645 numbers? 27:47.650 --> 27:50.690 Student: The less developed countries have a 27:50.685 --> 27:51.515 little less. 27:51.519 --> 27:54.759 Prof: Yes, so the less developed countries 27:54.763 --> 27:58.823 have a lower death rate than the more developed countries. 27:58.818 --> 28:03.868 That's surprising that their health systems or their health 28:03.873 --> 28:05.793 is better than ours. 28:05.788 --> 28:09.478 Let's just check that number and let's look at for instance 28:09.481 --> 28:12.221 compare the United States with our neighbor, 28:12.219 --> 28:12.919 Mexico. 28:12.920 --> 28:17.090 We know Mexico is much poorer and probably doesn't have as 28:17.092 --> 28:20.832 good a healthcare system, well here's our deaths per 28:20.825 --> 28:24.675 1,000 in the United States is 8; Mexico is 5, 28:24.681 --> 28:29.261 it's a good bit less then we have and further, 28:29.262 --> 28:35.472 here is Central America there's not a single country that's as 28:35.472 --> 28:37.512 high as we are. 28:37.509 --> 28:39.099 Every single one of the Central American countries, 28:39.098 --> 28:40.698 including some pretty poor countries, 28:40.700 --> 28:45.660 El Salvador has a lower death rate then the United States and 28:45.662 --> 28:50.462 Mexico is kind of in the middle between the 4 and the 6. 28:50.460 --> 28:58.100 Striking, you go further afield here, here's the Caribbean and 28:58.096 --> 29:03.226 these are more in the range of the U.S. 29:03.230 --> 29:05.280 level but they're--the U.S. 29:05.276 --> 29:09.516 is not better than almost any of them except for Haiti. 29:09.519 --> 29:13.569 Haiti is the only place that has a noticeably worse death 29:13.574 --> 29:14.664 rate then us. 29:14.660 --> 29:16.410 Student: Do those death rates include the infant 29:16.414 --> 29:16.994 mortality rates? 29:16.990 --> 29:17.520 Prof: What? 29:17.519 --> 29:19.319 Student: Do those death rates include the infant 29:19.319 --> 29:19.909 mortality rates? 29:19.910 --> 29:21.830 Prof: Yes, these are total death rates. 29:21.828 --> 29:24.118 Once you're born, if you die after you're born, 29:24.122 --> 29:24.972 you're counted. 29:24.970 --> 29:33.890 Don't include spontaneous or induced abortions. 29:33.890 --> 29:39.830 We got a problem here, what do you think is the reason 29:39.827 --> 29:41.057 for this? 29:41.058 --> 29:44.178 Student: Because the United States has more older 29:44.179 --> 29:45.849 people than other countries. 29:45.848 --> 29:47.788 Prof: Exactly, the United States has more 29:47.788 --> 29:50.018 older people, and it's a funny thing about 29:50.019 --> 29:52.559 older people, they're the ones who tend to 29:52.556 --> 29:52.856 die. 29:52.858 --> 29:55.658 Once you get rid of your infant mortality issue, 29:55.663 --> 29:57.993 people tend to die at the older ages. 29:57.990 --> 30:01.530 That's exactly correct, and it's an extreme--in a 30:01.526 --> 30:04.986 developed country it's an extreme difference. 30:04.990 --> 30:07.530 Here is what's left, so this is the United States. 30:07.528 --> 30:11.498 This is the deaths per 1,000, the age of the people, 30:11.500 --> 30:13.730 and here's what's left of the infant mortality, 30:13.730 --> 30:16.340 it's still more dangerous to be an infant than later, 30:16.338 --> 30:19.618 but there's virtually--you can't even see the death rate 30:19.619 --> 30:23.969 through the middle years, but then boom it goes up as you 30:23.973 --> 30:26.403 get on into the older ages. 30:26.400 --> 30:30.750 Indeed, the death rate is completely sensitive to your age 30:30.750 --> 30:33.960 distribution, a country that has more young 30:33.955 --> 30:37.005 people will have a lower death rate. 30:37.009 --> 30:40.069 A country that has a high birthrate will have more young 30:40.073 --> 30:42.463 people, will have a lower death rate, 30:42.458 --> 30:45.358 so what you're seeing in that anomaly there, 30:45.358 --> 30:49.498 what looked like an anomaly, is basically that Mexico has a 30:49.500 --> 30:51.570 higher birthrate of people. 30:51.568 --> 30:56.428 This funny thing, you happen to be born young and 30:56.430 --> 31:02.000 you die old, and so that is the explanation for that. 31:02.000 --> 31:05.310 Any time--almost any demographic number that you want 31:05.310 --> 31:07.720 to interpret, marriage rates, 31:07.720 --> 31:11.570 birthrates, death rates, fertility rates, 31:11.567 --> 31:16.147 almost everything of interest is affected by the age 31:16.151 --> 31:17.591 distribution. 31:17.588 --> 31:21.998 In understanding demographic statistics, the most important 31:21.996 --> 31:24.956 thing is always the age distribution. 31:24.960 --> 31:27.410 You always have to pay attention to that, 31:27.410 --> 31:32.250 and later on I'll show you one of the mechanisms for paying 31:32.246 --> 31:34.426 attention-- for getting 31:34.432 --> 31:40.352 statistics--adjusting statistics for the age distribution. 31:40.348 --> 31:42.958 How--first let's just look at it. 31:42.960 --> 31:47.390 So here is the easiest way of looking at an age distribution. 31:47.390 --> 31:50.190 What you have here, this is for Germany and the 31:50.192 --> 31:53.522 pink is the old-- this is 1989 when East and West 31:53.519 --> 31:56.659 Germany were still split, so this is the German 31:56.660 --> 31:58.930 Democratic Republic, East Germany, 31:58.930 --> 32:02.700 the pink is East Germans and the dark is the Federal 32:02.699 --> 32:05.239 Republic, West Germany, 32:05.240 --> 32:11.570 and on the left is men and on the right is female, 32:11.568 --> 32:16.288 male and female, and what this graph says is 32:16.292 --> 32:19.752 that every year-- so this is age zero, 32:19.753 --> 32:24.423 you're just born, to age 100, that every year 32:24.423 --> 32:28.913 they ask how many people are there? 32:28.910 --> 32:32.420 How many kids are there between age zero and one? 32:32.420 --> 32:34.580 Well there's so many males and so many females, 32:34.575 --> 32:37.335 this number in East Germany, this number in West Germany. 32:37.338 --> 32:41.278 You can go through every age and just count from your census 32:41.278 --> 32:45.348 the number of people at that age and draw it out like this. 32:45.348 --> 32:48.798 It's a wonderful huge amount of information in a single graph; 32:48.799 --> 32:50.669 you can see all kinds of things. 32:50.670 --> 32:55.090 This is World War I, the people born during World 32:55.090 --> 32:57.470 War I, they're almost all gone, 32:57.473 --> 33:01.103 but here's the ones from World War II and look at the big 33:01.102 --> 33:02.012 difference. 33:02.009 --> 33:04.019 Here's your females. 33:04.019 --> 33:06.049 Here's your males. 33:06.049 --> 33:11.079 What's the difference? 33:11.079 --> 33:14.819 War deaths; the men are in the Army and the 33:14.824 --> 33:17.934 get shot up on the Russian front, so you have many more 33:17.932 --> 33:19.202 females then males. 33:19.200 --> 33:22.620 It's partially that women live older also but this case in 33:22.618 --> 33:26.378 Germany is almost exclusive-- is overwhelmingly the deaths 33:26.380 --> 33:28.780 from World War I, here there's still some 33:28.782 --> 33:32.862 females, there's no males, and then the deaths from World 33:32.855 --> 33:33.575 War II. 33:33.578 --> 33:36.958 You can see the birth deficit, these are people who would have 33:36.957 --> 33:39.667 been born during World War I, these were adults, 33:39.673 --> 33:41.773 fighting age adults during World War I. 33:41.769 --> 33:45.449 These would have been born while the men were away so they 33:45.453 --> 33:47.073 didn't have any babies. 33:47.068 --> 33:52.298 They had very few babies during World War I and the same thing 33:52.301 --> 33:56.931 you see for World War II, and you see again the deficit 33:56.932 --> 33:59.852 of--well we talked about that. 33:59.848 --> 34:03.978 You can see that, then you can see there's a post 34:03.978 --> 34:07.218 war baby boom, after the deficit in World War 34:07.217 --> 34:10.357 II people make up for it and more than make up for the 34:10.358 --> 34:13.698 deficit, so you have this huge bulge in 34:13.699 --> 34:16.739 population, both males and females, 34:16.739 --> 34:19.929 but now balanced, more or less equal numbers of 34:19.925 --> 34:23.095 males and females, and then you get the baby bust 34:23.103 --> 34:25.513 and you get a little echo effect, 34:25.510 --> 34:27.790 so there's variations--fluctuations in 34:27.788 --> 34:30.198 population-- almost every country 34:30.202 --> 34:34.632 has--Western country has these kind of data plus the Asian 34:34.625 --> 34:38.345 countries that were involved in World War II. 34:38.349 --> 34:44.289 You can see it's a wonderful way of understanding a country. 34:44.289 --> 34:55.639 Now this is India--the census of India, that's a weird one. 34:55.639 --> 34:56.989 What the heck is going on there? 34:56.989 --> 35:04.989 35:04.989 --> 35:06.869 That's weird, so what it is, 35:06.871 --> 35:09.311 is people don't know their ages, 35:09.309 --> 35:12.309 they're innumerate, and so it gets counted every 35:12.309 --> 35:15.279 five or ten years, so here's a five year or a ten 35:15.282 --> 35:15.992 year period. 35:15.989 --> 35:18.619 They know their ages approximately, 35:18.621 --> 35:22.491 to approximately a certain year, they don't know it 35:22.490 --> 35:23.420 exactly. 35:23.420 --> 35:26.320 It's not important, in a pre-industrial country 35:26.318 --> 35:29.658 their exact age is not all that terribly important. 35:29.659 --> 35:34.259 You get this--that's called age heaping, that when you get a 35:34.262 --> 35:37.852 large excess in five or ten year increments. 35:37.849 --> 35:39.669 My own father, who was an immigrant, 35:39.666 --> 35:40.856 did not know his age. 35:40.860 --> 35:43.940 There was--he was born in either 1904 or 1907 because he 35:43.936 --> 35:47.396 even had a birth certificate but it was in the Russian Cyrillic 35:47.404 --> 35:50.094 characters and the four looks like a seven, 35:50.090 --> 35:56.060 so he and my mother argued constantly over how old he 35:56.057 --> 35:57.777 actually was. 35:57.780 --> 36:00.950 Even countries that have had a long--European have the same 36:00.952 --> 36:01.392 thing. 36:01.389 --> 36:05.679 Here is the Soviet Union from their 1937 census and here again 36:05.684 --> 36:08.434 you get this same age heaping effect. 36:08.429 --> 36:11.569 Not quite as extreme as India but very clearly here, 36:11.570 --> 36:15.410 and to a degree worse with women then with men, 36:15.409 --> 36:18.179 because women are less educated, see the big bars here, 36:18.179 --> 36:21.449 the small bars here, and in principle it should be 36:21.452 --> 36:25.262 getting less with younger people it should be clearer, 36:25.260 --> 36:28.720 and you certainly do get rid of these extreme on certain of 36:28.717 --> 36:33.137 these but it's not-- it's persisting into the 1930s 36:33.141 --> 36:39.681 this 'I don't know how old I am except within a five or ten year 36:39.675 --> 36:40.915 bracket.' 36:40.920 --> 36:48.180 Here's another weirdo, what's that? 36:48.179 --> 36:51.059 Just to show you that you can immediately, once you get used 36:51.056 --> 36:53.876 to this, immediately tell an awful lot about a country from 36:53.882 --> 36:54.812 an age pyramid. 36:54.809 --> 37:01.949 37:01.949 --> 37:05.419 Anybody from Arizona? 37:05.420 --> 37:06.940 Nobody from--what? 37:06.940 --> 37:10.210 Student: > 37:10.210 --> 37:13.660 Prof: It's Sun City, Arizona which is a retirement 37:13.661 --> 37:16.251 community and they don't allow anybody-- 37:16.250 --> 37:18.980 I think most of these have an age limit of 50, 37:18.980 --> 37:22.720 you have to be at least 55, so this is the retirement age, 37:22.719 --> 37:25.359 and where my mother lives in Century Village in West Palm 37:25.362 --> 37:27.982 Beach looks like this -- Florida looks like that, 37:27.983 --> 37:30.913 various retired-- California has retirement 37:30.911 --> 37:33.171 villages they look like that. 37:33.170 --> 37:37.830 These population pyramids are wonderful with lots of 37:37.833 --> 37:43.503 information packed into this and from seeing these pyramids you 37:43.501 --> 37:48.441 can tell a lot about the socioeconomic character of the 37:48.440 --> 37:53.740 countries because we know that the poor countries have less 37:53.744 --> 37:57.644 literacy, etc., etc., and they have 37:57.639 --> 38:02.859 higher birthrates and so we'll look at what that looks like 38:02.860 --> 38:04.030 right now. 38:04.030 --> 38:08.590 Here are two of these population pyramids and here 38:08.590 --> 38:11.150 is-- you saw in those the splitting 38:11.146 --> 38:14.006 of the world into more developed regions, 38:14.010 --> 38:16.480 and less developed regions. 38:16.480 --> 38:19.360 What do you notice right away? 38:19.360 --> 38:22.620 The total area under this, so this is now five-year age 38:22.623 --> 38:27.073 heaps rather than single year, so between zero and four is 38:27.068 --> 38:28.998 this amount, or this amount, 38:29.000 --> 38:31.820 so it's the area under this is how many total people there are. 38:31.820 --> 38:34.490 One you see there's a lot less area here, 38:34.489 --> 38:38.179 a lot less people, the less developed regions are 38:38.184 --> 38:42.884 the bulk of the world but also the shape is very different. 38:42.880 --> 38:49.280 Here in the developed regions you have a more or less similar 38:49.282 --> 38:52.592 number of people in all ages. 38:52.590 --> 38:54.670 It's not exactly that way. 38:54.670 --> 38:58.080 Of course at the old age people are dying and that starts about 38:58.083 --> 39:01.173 here in the 50s and then accelerates and there's very few 39:01.168 --> 39:04.068 left, so it narrows here and also 39:04.072 --> 39:09.482 it's narrowing down here because the birthrate in the developed 39:09.476 --> 39:13.826 countries is now below replacement level and so the 39:13.833 --> 39:19.323 pyramids are getting to be fewer people in the younger ages then 39:19.324 --> 39:21.944 there are older people. 39:21.940 --> 39:26.410 Contrast that with less developed parts of the world and 39:26.409 --> 39:30.389 you see that there's more and more younger people, 39:30.391 --> 39:34.051 each age cohort has more and more people. 39:34.050 --> 39:40.280 You can look at an individual country, and this is a clearer 39:40.282 --> 39:41.342 example. 39:41.340 --> 39:44.430 This is Nigeria as far as we can tell from their census, 39:44.429 --> 39:48.159 but they--you can tell an age distribution and this is now 39:48.159 --> 39:51.169 percent rather than total from sub-samples, 39:51.170 --> 39:53.320 you don't need to count absolutely everybody to 39:53.318 --> 39:55.278 understand what the age distribution is. 39:55.280 --> 39:59.860 Here is a 50-year change, there's not one--it's not 39:59.864 --> 40:01.794 changing very much. 40:01.789 --> 40:04.879 This is what it was in 1975, they know more or less what it 40:04.876 --> 40:08.066 is now, and they're projecting it out to 2005--;I'm sorry. 40:08.070 --> 40:12.920 This is pretty current and it looks about the same, 40:12.920 --> 40:16.120 and vastly as you go in this case, as you go to younger and 40:16.117 --> 40:21.627 younger people, vastly more children than older 40:21.628 --> 40:22.648 folks. 40:22.650 --> 40:26.530 So what's happening here--see what the ages are here, 40:26.530 --> 40:30.660 especially in Nigeria, 15 to 45, these are the ages in 40:30.657 --> 40:35.487 which women are giving birth and this number of women is giving 40:35.487 --> 40:40.027 birth to more than two children, they're more then replacing 40:40.030 --> 40:43.590 themselves, so each bar is bigger than the 40:43.594 --> 40:45.814 last, and some of this in-swing, 40:45.806 --> 40:48.216 especially this is Sub-Saharan Africa, 40:48.219 --> 40:51.269 some of this reduction is infant mortality and child 40:51.271 --> 40:51.991 mortality. 40:51.989 --> 40:54.659 Some of the differences, especially between this bar and 40:54.657 --> 40:57.227 this bar, that's in there, but it's a small effect. 40:57.230 --> 41:05.400 The major effect is that every generation is bigger and they 41:05.398 --> 41:10.658 produce more and more children here. 41:10.659 --> 41:22.079 Now--so when you look at how--what's going to evolve in 41:22.079 --> 41:28.609 the future-- so here is your women who are 41:28.606 --> 41:32.146 40 to 45, that's this bunch of women and 41:32.148 --> 41:34.738 women on this side, so that's the number of women. 41:34.739 --> 41:38.319 They're producing part of these children. 41:38.320 --> 41:41.290 In another five years, if you look at this five years 41:41.286 --> 41:44.306 later, these women who were 40 to 45 are now 45 to 50, 41:44.311 --> 41:46.311 no more fertility, pretty much. 41:46.309 --> 41:49.509 In Nigeria they're not using a lot of IVF and everything. 41:49.510 --> 41:53.140 So they have stopped reproducing but that cohort of 41:53.143 --> 41:57.363 that size is being replaced by the ones of this size coming 41:57.358 --> 42:00.998 into fertile ages, so women that were 10 to 15 are 42:01.001 --> 42:04.311 becoming 15 to 20 and starting their childbearing, 42:04.309 --> 42:07.489 when women that are 40 to 45 which have not so much 42:07.492 --> 42:10.332 childbearing left, are going out of existence and 42:10.329 --> 42:12.029 stopping childbearing absolutely. 42:12.030 --> 42:15.240 The number of women, the number of child bearers is 42:15.235 --> 42:16.835 increasing drastically. 42:16.840 --> 42:19.040 In this case, it looks ballpark like there 42:19.039 --> 42:22.149 are twice as many women coming into reproductive age as are 42:22.150 --> 42:26.550 leaving reproductive age, each year, each five years 42:26.554 --> 42:29.784 however you want to count it. 42:29.780 --> 42:33.880 The number of childbearing women is increasing 42:33.882 --> 42:35.252 tremendously. 42:35.250 --> 42:40.660 The result of that is--here's another comparison, 42:40.659 --> 42:44.749 whereas in the west, in developed countries the 42:44.748 --> 42:50.078 number of 40 to 45 year olds is not enormously different then 42:50.079 --> 42:52.479 the number to 15 to 19. 42:52.480 --> 42:55.540 So the women that are leaving reproductive ages are more or 42:55.541 --> 42:58.661 less replaced by the women that are coming into reproductive 42:58.655 --> 42:59.125 ages. 42:59.130 --> 43:01.340 Of course with population decline, 43:01.340 --> 43:05.060 eventually you get fewer women coming into reproductive age in 43:05.063 --> 43:07.693 developed countries then are leaving it, 43:07.690 --> 43:10.110 so that you have fewer child bearers, 43:10.110 --> 43:13.960 so this phenomenon can--if your population is increasing the 43:13.963 --> 43:16.383 problem gets more and more severe, 43:16.380 --> 43:18.940 if it's decreasing the problem gets more and more severe. 43:18.940 --> 43:24.110 There's a positive feedback on this with your number of child 43:24.108 --> 43:27.468 bearers either growing or decreasing. 43:27.469 --> 43:34.239 Here is in billions--the number of women of childbearing age in 43:34.244 --> 43:39.604 the world, and it just keeps increasing, right? 43:39.599 --> 43:42.959 What you may be aware of, I haven't really talked about 43:42.960 --> 43:45.630 this much yet, because it's in my next 43:45.626 --> 43:48.836 lecture, here is the birthrate in the world, 43:48.840 --> 43:50.600 children per women. 43:50.599 --> 43:53.569 The birthrate has been coming down. 43:53.570 --> 43:56.960 Two opposite things are happening in the world. 43:56.960 --> 44:01.740 The number of childbearing women is going up but the number 44:01.742 --> 44:05.952 of children that each of them have is going down. 44:05.949 --> 44:10.139 They predict optimistically that by 2050 it'll reach about 44:10.141 --> 44:13.601 replacement of about two children per women, 44:13.599 --> 44:16.569 but it's not there, we're not there yet, 44:16.570 --> 44:25.590 we're almost double-- we're way above that now. 44:25.590 --> 44:29.630 The result of this number of women rising, 44:29.630 --> 44:34.560 their rate of childbearing decreasing is that the number of 44:34.559 --> 44:36.449 births, you sort of multiply those two 44:36.451 --> 44:38.781 out, the number of births is 44:38.779 --> 44:44.309 expected to continue increasing for the predictable future. 44:44.309 --> 44:49.679 That the absolute number of births will increase as a result 44:49.684 --> 44:52.604 of these two crossing factors. 44:52.599 --> 44:56.629 Now the birthrate is coming down and it eventually, 44:56.628 --> 45:01.058 let's presume in the future, gets to be two children. 45:01.059 --> 45:02.189 What then happens? 45:02.190 --> 45:06.980 You still have a pyramid like this but now it starts 45:06.981 --> 45:11.111 flattening out, but it flattens out--I should 45:11.114 --> 45:13.374 not do this by hand. 45:13.369 --> 45:17.359 In fact I want to go to this graph. 45:17.360 --> 45:21.210 It shows this--this is what's actually predicted to happen, 45:21.208 --> 45:24.988 so this is again developing countries and this is the kind 45:24.992 --> 45:27.052 of pyramid that we've seen. 45:27.050 --> 45:33.490 This one goes back to 1985 with this broadly increasing thing. 45:33.489 --> 45:36.599 It's basically a triangle, you can think of it is as a 45:36.603 --> 45:37.253 triangle. 45:37.250 --> 45:40.090 If immediately, God sticks his finger out of 45:40.085 --> 45:43.645 heaven and says two children, and even more surprising, 45:43.646 --> 45:45.886 people obey him, what happens? 45:45.889 --> 45:49.019 This is the number of children, people that there are there, 45:49.018 --> 45:54.828 that the population pyramid will grow up but with this as a 45:54.827 --> 45:57.437 base, so that it will become square 45:57.436 --> 45:59.676 but there will be this many people. 45:59.679 --> 46:04.589 You go from a triangle to a rectangle with the same base. 46:04.590 --> 46:05.120 Can you see that? 46:05.119 --> 46:09.359 The number of people is the area inside that and you have 46:09.362 --> 46:11.662 the same base, you go from a triangle to 46:11.655 --> 46:14.675 rectangle-- remember from high school 46:14.677 --> 46:17.417 geometry what the area is? 46:17.420 --> 46:19.240 It doubles. 46:19.239 --> 46:21.829 Because, if you have a triangle and you go square, 46:21.833 --> 46:24.803 you just flip that--half the triangle over and you've got 46:24.800 --> 46:26.230 that many people again. 46:26.230 --> 46:30.790 If a miracle happens and fertility stops dead right now 46:30.789 --> 46:34.759 and we go immediately to two children per woman, 46:34.757 --> 46:38.807 the population doubles before it stabilizes. 46:38.809 --> 46:41.359 What this shows you, of course is that miracle is 46:41.360 --> 46:42.530 not going to happen. 46:42.530 --> 46:46.770 This is quite optimistic and is already not the case, 46:46.766 --> 46:49.616 that the base will also increase. 46:49.619 --> 46:51.949 Since the population is still increasing, 46:51.949 --> 46:55.299 the base will increase, and yes it will get more 46:55.300 --> 46:58.670 rectangular, but even by 2025 it won't yet 46:58.670 --> 47:01.130 be rectangular, so that you will, 47:01.125 --> 47:06.145 on this kind of projection, more than double the population 47:06.153 --> 47:12.343 from 1985 because the base is growing as well as you're rising 47:12.340 --> 47:12.950 up. 47:12.949 --> 47:21.279 There's an expectation of quite a lot of population increase 47:21.280 --> 47:22.270 left. 47:22.268 --> 47:25.788 This whole phenomenon where because you-- 47:25.789 --> 47:29.449 once you start having an increasing population you're 47:29.454 --> 47:31.474 going to-- the population is going to keep 47:31.472 --> 47:33.742 increasing because there's more and more child bearers unless 47:33.742 --> 47:35.712 something drastic happens to the fertility rate, 47:35.710 --> 47:38.740 it's called population momentum because you're sort of moving in 47:38.739 --> 47:41.049 a certain direction of increasing population, 47:41.050 --> 47:42.790 it just continues. 47:42.789 --> 47:46.129 The same thing happens as you'll see in the next lecture 47:46.128 --> 47:49.068 with population decreasing, and when population decreases 47:49.067 --> 47:51.377 you have fewer and fewer child bearers in each generation, 47:51.380 --> 47:56.310 as say Japan now or Singapore, and so unless the birth rate 47:56.309 --> 48:01.579 increases tremendously you'll have fewer and fewer children. 48:01.579 --> 48:06.069 What this shows you is that, if there's immediate 48:06.067 --> 48:08.497 replacement, this kind of miracle that 48:08.501 --> 48:10.701 everything-- that everybody comes to just 48:10.704 --> 48:14.594 two children immediately, then the population would be 48:14.588 --> 48:17.678 this, so this effect is all momentum. 48:17.679 --> 48:21.819 All of this increase, from where we are now to up 48:21.820 --> 48:24.010 here, is just a momentum effect, 48:24.009 --> 48:27.469 just the fact that there's more and more children coming into 48:27.469 --> 48:31.159 reproductive age and that takes a very long time to work out. 48:31.159 --> 48:34.689 Then the fact that there's in fact -- they're not going 48:34.686 --> 48:38.406 immediately to two children, not immediate replacement. 48:38.409 --> 48:41.489 This is the United Nations guess as to what's going to 48:41.487 --> 48:42.007 happen. 48:42.010 --> 48:45.780 The actual population is projected to go like this. 48:45.780 --> 48:50.640 If everybody immediately goes to two children you get this 48:50.635 --> 48:52.165 population rise. 48:52.170 --> 48:55.060 What is actually expected is somewhat more, 48:55.059 --> 48:58.989 so huge amount of what's happening with population future 48:58.985 --> 49:02.595 is already determined, it's already momentum is in 49:02.599 --> 49:06.799 there and even if birthrates really come down very rapidly, 49:06.800 --> 49:17.770 the world's population is going to continue increasing. 49:17.768 --> 49:20.058 That's sort of an important thing to remember. 49:20.059 --> 49:27.499 In the world the fertility is decreasing, the population is 49:27.498 --> 49:33.268 increasing and those are not canceling out. 49:33.268 --> 49:36.968 From 1985 the prediction was that the world population would 49:36.967 --> 49:39.127 somewhat double, we've made some progress 49:39.126 --> 49:42.776 between there, but still we have 6.7 billion 49:42.784 --> 49:48.614 now and the expectation is something like 50% more people 49:48.605 --> 49:54.525 on earth in 2050 and perhaps continuing to increase beyond 49:54.530 --> 49:55.570 that. 49:55.570 --> 50:00.330 Huge amount of momentum effects, here is-- 50:00.329 --> 50:05.469 let me go back--this is Mauritius, an island in the 50:05.471 --> 50:10.721 Indian Ocean and it's one of the examples of a small 50:10.715 --> 50:16.675 underdeveloped country that had a very surprising fertility 50:16.679 --> 50:18.119 decline. 50:18.119 --> 50:22.659 This is probably the influenza epidemic here, 50:22.661 --> 50:28.751 but starting in around--right after World War II in the late 50:28.751 --> 50:32.571 1940s, it's death rate fell down; 50:32.570 --> 50:35.910 modern public health comes in to Mauritius, 50:35.909 --> 50:39.009 so the death rate falls dramatically. 50:39.010 --> 50:42.420 Then this fits the standard characterization of the 50:42.422 --> 50:44.132 demographic transition. 50:44.130 --> 50:47.370 About 20 years later, about one generation later, 50:47.369 --> 50:49.609 people learn, well we don't have to have so 50:49.612 --> 50:51.912 many children because they're not dying, 50:51.909 --> 51:01.459 and the birthrate comes down thereafter and population growth 51:01.460 --> 51:03.530 is in here. 51:03.530 --> 51:07.930 This is a country that did well, that starting fairly early 51:07.929 --> 51:11.949 for a developing country, 1951 say, their birthrate is 51:11.949 --> 51:13.239 falling down. 51:13.239 --> 51:20.319 They really sort of got it under control and--but look at 51:20.324 --> 51:21.214 this. 51:21.210 --> 51:29.930 So this is the birth--the total fertility rate which is a birth 51:29.931 --> 51:33.731 rate here, and it stays stable and then it 51:33.733 --> 51:36.413 starts falling down quite significantly, 51:36.409 --> 51:39.759 but look at here's total population size. 51:39.760 --> 51:42.640 You don't even see a change; all momentum. 51:42.639 --> 51:48.249 Here the birthrate has started dropping in 1965 and now we're 51:48.248 --> 51:53.488 25 years later and you don't see hardly any change in the 51:53.485 --> 51:56.005 population growth rate. 51:56.010 --> 51:58.990 That's what we talk about by the momentum effect that because 51:58.994 --> 52:01.144 at this time, before they drop their 52:01.137 --> 52:04.807 fertility, at this time there were so many more children than 52:04.813 --> 52:08.493 older people that the number of women child bearers just kept 52:08.489 --> 52:11.429 increasing and increasing, and increasing, 52:11.425 --> 52:15.195 so even though fertility drops the number of children stays 52:15.202 --> 52:17.162 high, even gets higher, 52:17.155 --> 52:20.525 and the population just keeps increasing. 52:20.530 --> 52:22.950 It's a very, very strong effect and the 52:22.947 --> 52:25.937 number of--and it's not flattened out there yet, 52:25.940 --> 52:27.150 25 years later. 52:27.150 --> 52:32.260 This is a projection of how long does it take before it 52:32.260 --> 52:33.680 flattens out. 52:33.679 --> 52:39.759 This is the first one, the first box is the year--this 52:39.764 --> 52:45.624 is our current size as of whatever year this was. 52:45.619 --> 52:49.069 By 2030--this is the United States. 52:49.070 --> 52:55.840 This is the number of people, so this graph was made in-- 52:55.840 --> 52:59.080 it doesn't say the date but our population will increase 52:59.083 --> 53:02.623 somewhat by 2030 and this really is ignoring the changes that 53:02.623 --> 53:06.283 have happened with immigration and so forth that we will-- 53:06.280 --> 53:10.130 we reach two child--if our fertility comes down we reach 53:10.132 --> 53:13.852 two child in 2030 and we stabilize because we have not 53:13.846 --> 53:17.696 had a rapidly expanding population so we stabilize right 53:17.699 --> 53:18.469 away. 53:18.469 --> 53:22.639 Nigeria, which you saw, current population, 53:22.639 --> 53:27.109 it's supposed to but some optimistic assumptions reach two 53:27.110 --> 53:30.170 children per women in the year 2035, 53:30.170 --> 53:36.090 but then it doesn't stabilize until 115 years later at again a 53:36.090 --> 53:38.810 much increased population. 53:38.809 --> 53:42.399 In the case of Nigeria, after it reaches two child per 53:42.400 --> 53:44.740 woman, after it reaches replacement 53:44.735 --> 53:46.865 level, it takes another 115 years 53:46.869 --> 53:49.329 before population actually stabilizes. 53:49.329 --> 53:51.779 This is Bangladesh, 125 years. 53:51.780 --> 53:58.080 This is Iran, 110 years; Iran has had a big crash, 53:58.081 --> 54:00.121 we'll talk about that and its population. 54:00.119 --> 54:04.889 Brazil 145 years, it takes an enormous amount of 54:04.893 --> 54:10.993 time for momentum to work itself out after the fertility rate 54:10.985 --> 54:12.505 comes down. 54:12.510 --> 54:17.420 It's quite striking, and that's the reason why we 54:17.422 --> 54:22.542 expect so much more population growth to happen. 54:22.539 --> 54:26.199 Again, you can look at an individual country, 54:26.202 --> 54:30.202 and this is Algeria, and look at what Algeria has 54:30.199 --> 54:34.779 done between--in 20 years: that's an enormous rate. 54:34.780 --> 54:37.980 Here's its crude birthrate, it's--crude means not corrected 54:37.980 --> 54:40.870 for age or anything, just take 1,000 people, 54:40.871 --> 54:44.401 how many babies were there for that 1,000 people. 54:44.400 --> 54:48.420 In 1965 there were 50 and it dropped to 38, 54:48.416 --> 54:52.526 a very large drop and it's a drop of 24%. 54:52.530 --> 54:56.760 They cut their birthrate by a quarter, that's 25% in 20 years, 54:56.757 --> 54:59.877 that's more than 1% a year, so there's a very, 54:59.875 --> 55:01.395 very rapid change. 55:01.400 --> 55:06.530 Because of momentum the population growth rate was 2.4% 55:06.525 --> 55:11.265 in 1965 even though the birthrate is going down the 55:11.271 --> 55:15.071 population growth rate is going up, 55:15.070 --> 55:19.760 all momentum, and the percent of change that 55:19.760 --> 55:23.690 the growth rate increased by 19%, 55:23.690 --> 55:25.510 again all of this, because at this age, 55:25.510 --> 55:27.030 they had been having a population explosion, 55:27.030 --> 55:29.590 so many younger children than older. 55:29.590 --> 55:34.230 The population almost doubled from 12 million to 22 million, 55:34.230 --> 55:39.520 population went up 83% and the annual population growth rate 55:39.516 --> 55:43.636 increased from a quarter million to 600,000; 55:43.639 --> 55:48.809 0.6 million, it changed 217%. 55:48.809 --> 55:50.869 Here's the dilemma for developing countries, 55:50.869 --> 55:55.089 that basically all the developing countries understand 55:55.094 --> 55:58.494 that they need-- that economically they'll be 55:58.492 --> 56:02.282 destroyed if their population growth rate increases and 56:02.277 --> 56:05.987 virtually every developing country has now an official 56:05.994 --> 56:09.994 national policy of trying to get its birthrate down. 56:09.989 --> 56:12.619 We'll see later that that's okay with the people, 56:12.619 --> 56:15.519 they're generally in accord with this, and they can do 56:15.521 --> 56:17.331 wonder--they can do miracles. 56:17.329 --> 56:19.759 These countries--you'll see some of the drops next time, 56:19.755 --> 56:22.395 I'll talk about--next time in my lecture I'll talk about some 56:22.402 --> 56:23.552 of the fabulous drops. 56:23.550 --> 56:28.130 I mean this is not exceptional, this is a very significant drop 56:28.126 --> 56:31.446 but it's not exceptional around the world, 56:31.449 --> 56:36.619 and yet, even in the face of that, their population goes up 56:36.619 --> 56:40.159 into massive amounts, 83% up, 100% up, 56:40.159 --> 56:41.909 more than somewhat. 56:41.909 --> 56:45.149 As the government is pushing modernization, 56:45.150 --> 56:49.380 and as the government is pushing reducing the birthrate, 56:49.380 --> 56:53.090 and as grass roots organizations push to try to get 56:53.094 --> 56:56.394 the birthrate down, the population keeps increasing. 56:56.389 --> 56:59.319 Industrial development, if it's not extremely rapid, 56:59.320 --> 57:02.260 can't keep up with the birthrate, so while these 57:02.257 --> 57:06.317 countries are modernizing they can see conditions deteriorate, 57:06.320 --> 57:09.010 poverty can grow, crowding can grow, 57:09.010 --> 57:12.740 homelessness can grow, again because population, 57:12.739 --> 57:16.009 even though you get your birthrate down, 57:16.010 --> 57:20.810 your population keeps increasing so extremely. 57:20.809 --> 57:25.189 Some theory--believe that there's kind of a window of 57:25.186 --> 57:29.306 opportunity for the developing countries that, 57:29.309 --> 57:32.479 for instance, you take Egypt which I'm sure 57:32.480 --> 57:36.330 it's also had one of these drops not unlike this. 57:36.329 --> 57:39.399 They were kings of the world, top of the world in the 57:39.400 --> 57:41.760 Pharaoh's time, you all know that kind of 57:41.760 --> 57:42.470 history. 57:42.469 --> 57:45.179 Then iron was invented, but not in Egypt, 57:45.181 --> 57:49.251 and Egypt was in the bronze age during the Pharaoh's time. 57:49.250 --> 57:52.570 Iron is invented maybe in Turkey, I don't know exactly 57:52.572 --> 57:56.272 where and the other people's of the world picked up iron and 57:56.273 --> 57:57.593 made iron swords. 57:57.590 --> 57:59.100 The Egyptians, for some reason, 57:59.099 --> 58:01.649 never really caught onto iron, maybe they don't have any iron 58:01.652 --> 58:04.412 anywhere there, and so from 1000 BC or 58:04.405 --> 58:10.935 something until 1950 they were always subject to somebody else. 58:10.940 --> 58:15.450 They were always ruled by someone else until Nasser got 58:15.445 --> 58:19.395 rid of the British in 1950, they were ruled by the British, 58:19.402 --> 58:21.092 and then before that by the Turks, 58:21.090 --> 58:26.280 and by all kinds of peoples, the Greeks before that-- 58:26.280 --> 58:27.910 in Alexander the Greats time and so forth, 58:27.909 --> 58:29.749 and the Romans, they were ruled by someone 58:29.746 --> 58:30.056 else. 58:30.059 --> 58:34.059 Well here come--here's 1952 I think, Nasser's revolution, 58:34.061 --> 58:37.421 gets rids of the British, sets up an independent 58:37.420 --> 58:38.350 republic. 58:38.349 --> 58:40.389 The people are very enthusiastic, 58:40.394 --> 58:43.924 they're very excited, they now throw off the shackles 58:43.918 --> 58:46.088 of imperialism, and colonialism, 58:46.088 --> 58:48.718 and they can now be their own country. 58:48.719 --> 58:53.019 But the birthrate is still very high, the population growth rate 58:53.021 --> 58:56.031 is very high, they have to industrialize real 58:56.025 --> 58:56.635 fast. 58:56.639 --> 58:59.199 They can't and they don't industrialize that fast, 58:59.197 --> 59:01.127 they don't modernize their economy. 59:01.130 --> 59:01.360 Why? 59:01.355 --> 59:04.395 A whole lot of reasons, one of which is they waste huge 59:04.403 --> 59:07.173 amounts of money on the conflict with Israel, 59:07.170 --> 59:10.490 that they have war after war, and have to spend huge amounts 59:10.487 --> 59:13.797 of money on the military that would be better spent on their 59:13.804 --> 59:15.214 economic development. 59:15.210 --> 59:18.340 Time passes, and the people have tried to 59:18.342 --> 59:20.492 modernize, that's been the ideology, 59:20.494 --> 59:22.314 they've tried socialist modernization, 59:22.309 --> 59:24.899 they've tried capitalist modernization, 59:24.900 --> 59:28.440 and what they see is more and more crowding, 59:28.440 --> 59:30.090 poverty is not going away. 59:30.090 --> 59:32.010 Conditions are not getting very much better. 59:32.010 --> 59:35.880 I mean they do get a little bit better, but not terribly much 59:35.880 --> 59:38.850 better and so they give up on modernization. 59:38.849 --> 59:41.609 When they give up on modernization they glorify the 59:41.608 --> 59:43.268 past, they say it was better in the 59:43.266 --> 59:45.446 past, and they go to a romantic 59:45.454 --> 59:48.034 attitude to what it was like in-- 59:48.030 --> 59:52.420 and can try to reverse modernization by resisting 59:52.422 --> 59:56.272 further drops in birthrate, for instance, 59:56.273 --> 59:58.313 going back to religion. 59:58.309 --> 1:00:00.429 When I was in Egypt some years back, 1:00:00.429 --> 1:00:02.729 went into some sort of a restaurant and they seat you 1:00:02.726 --> 1:00:06.106 sometime at long tables, so people you don't know you 1:00:06.106 --> 1:00:09.076 sit next to, and if they happen to speak 1:00:09.079 --> 1:00:12.849 English I could talk to them, I don't speak Arabic, 1:00:12.849 --> 1:00:17.139 and so the ones that I could talk to were upper class-- 1:00:17.139 --> 1:00:20.079 educated people and therefore upper class people that spoke 1:00:20.076 --> 1:00:21.186 fairly good English. 1:00:21.190 --> 1:00:24.400 And you meet this nice young woman and she was at the 1:00:24.402 --> 1:00:27.372 University of Cairo which is an elite school, 1:00:27.369 --> 1:00:29.989 and she was an engineering student, 1:00:29.989 --> 1:00:32.819 so perfectly intelligent, perfectly modern in that way, 1:00:32.820 --> 1:00:35.880 wearing a head scarf, which her mother did not wear 1:00:35.878 --> 1:00:38.508 which was not in the previous generation. 1:00:38.510 --> 1:00:41.770 That she doesn't believe in modernization basically. 1:00:41.768 --> 1:00:44.288 For her own self-benefit she'll become an engineer because she 1:00:44.291 --> 1:00:45.161 wants a decent job. 1:00:45.159 --> 1:00:49.639 She doesn't want to herself go back and dig in the desert dirt 1:00:49.639 --> 1:00:51.989 there to try to get some food. 1:00:51.989 --> 1:00:54.209 She wants to be a modern person with a good job, 1:00:54.206 --> 1:00:56.846 at least she wants a good job, but she doesn't believe in 1:00:56.849 --> 1:00:57.699 modernization. 1:00:57.699 --> 1:01:00.679 The rest of her ideology, aside from her personal 1:01:00.681 --> 1:01:04.351 desires, is backward looking, that things were better in the 1:01:04.347 --> 1:01:06.767 past, modernization has not worked. 1:01:06.768 --> 1:01:10.728 This is--there's this window of opportunity when countries first 1:01:10.728 --> 1:01:14.688 try to get modernized and one of the things that goes along with 1:01:14.688 --> 1:01:17.578 modernization is a reduced fertility rate. 1:01:17.579 --> 1:01:20.679 If it doesn't work people will reject that. 1:01:20.679 --> 1:01:24.839 A lot of what's going on in the world today with respect to the 1:01:24.840 --> 1:01:27.660 developed and underdeveloped countries, 1:01:27.659 --> 1:01:29.949 and the Arab countries, and the Western countries, 1:01:29.949 --> 1:01:35.039 has to do with this rejection of modernization because it did 1:01:35.041 --> 1:01:36.741 not work for them. 1:01:36.739 --> 1:01:38.879 With that, if the birthrate stays high as it has, 1:01:38.880 --> 1:01:40.220 not in the Muslim countries. 1:01:40.219 --> 1:01:43.239 Many Muslim countries have had fabulous progress, 1:01:43.239 --> 1:01:45.679 but in a lot of the Arab countries the birthrate has 1:01:45.681 --> 1:01:48.631 stayed very high, and there's these huge numbers 1:01:48.632 --> 1:01:52.082 of unemployed young men, the economy cannot absorb them, 1:01:52.081 --> 1:01:56.291 they're hanging around, they're idealistic as all young 1:01:56.289 --> 1:01:59.979 men are, and what ideals do they pick up 1:01:59.978 --> 1:02:04.998 but going back to some imagined past that was glorious. 1:02:05.000 --> 1:02:07.780 The world may hinge on this window of opportunity. 1:02:07.780 --> 1:02:09.720 How many countries can take advantage of it? 1:02:09.719 --> 1:02:12.409 China clearly took advantage of it, Japan took advantage of it. 1:02:12.409 --> 1:02:14.529 A lot of the East Asian countries took advantage of 1:02:14.532 --> 1:02:17.812 their window of opportunity, a lot of other countries did 1:02:17.809 --> 1:02:21.379 not take advantage of their window of opportunity. 1:02:21.380 --> 1:02:26.000