WEBVTT 00:04.260 --> 00:10.550 Prof: We're discussing the fertility transition and 00:10.549 --> 00:17.169 we've talked that prior to the fertility transition there was 00:17.170 --> 00:22.130 control of fertility, but it was at a very high level. 00:22.130 --> 00:28.250 In different parts of the world we talked in very general terms 00:28.253 --> 00:29.343 about it. 00:29.340 --> 00:33.340 I want to just describe a little bit about what the story 00:33.336 --> 00:36.116 was in Europe, exactly how fertility was 00:36.119 --> 00:37.189 controlled. 00:37.190 --> 00:40.590 One of the main reasons, I mentioned this before, 00:40.586 --> 00:44.546 but didn't really describe it, is control of marriage. 00:44.550 --> 00:48.040 That the number of people that were allowed to, 00:48.042 --> 00:51.232 and in some sense, get married changed with 00:51.231 --> 00:55.181 economic conditions and agricultural conditions. 00:55.180 --> 00:59.290 You can see that very clearly wherever you get statistics from 00:59.293 --> 01:00.173 the period. 01:00.170 --> 01:03.790 As you know, the first year of the Black 01:03.792 --> 01:08.512 Death was 1347-1348, and huge numbers of people died 01:08.506 --> 01:13.406 and their land was immediately taken over by someone else. 01:13.409 --> 01:16.969 Immediately these new landowners got married. 01:16.970 --> 01:19.840 There was an enormous burst of marriage. 01:19.840 --> 01:23.710 Like in one small French village there had been 10 to 12 01:23.706 --> 01:26.726 marriages a year in the preceding decade. 01:26.730 --> 01:31.870 In 1349, the first year after that phase of the plague passed 01:31.870 --> 01:35.130 it went from 10 to 12, to 86 marriages, 01:35.125 --> 01:37.005 an enormous thing. 01:37.010 --> 01:42.310 What was going on is there was--before the Black Death when 01:42.312 --> 01:47.522 Europe was crowded for its system there was a huge pool of 01:47.524 --> 01:53.014 unmarried individuals who really wanted to get married, 01:53.010 --> 01:58.200 but did not have any land on which to support themselves or a 01:58.197 --> 02:03.127 family and the opening of the land allows marriage to take 02:03.125 --> 02:03.985 place. 02:03.989 --> 02:07.879 Then not only did they get married right away, 02:07.879 --> 02:11.219 but the women got pregnant immediately, 02:11.218 --> 02:13.148 and one contemporary observer wrote, 02:13.150 --> 02:16.220 "There are pregnant women wherever you look." 02:16.219 --> 02:19.569 This is 1349. 02:19.568 --> 02:24.568 Up--this fertility rate was a flexible system that moved up 02:24.568 --> 02:29.738 and down according to economic and demographic conditions. 02:29.740 --> 02:33.850 In England, there's data from the 1550s and later, 02:33.848 --> 02:37.198 the gross reproduction rate, that's the number of women-- 02:37.199 --> 02:40.969 there are a certain number of women in one generation how many 02:40.974 --> 02:43.084 female children do they produce? 02:43.080 --> 02:47.180 In the 1550s it was 2.8, so one will reproduce a woman, 02:47.179 --> 02:51.199 the gross reproduction rate will be one, but they were 02:51.203 --> 02:52.573 producing 2.8. 02:52.568 --> 02:58.828 A century later it drops down to 1.8 and that's the 1650s, 02:58.830 --> 03:02.570 and by 1880s it rises again to over three, 03:02.568 --> 03:07.058 so there's enormous range between one, 03:07.060 --> 03:09.250 close to one, less than two, 03:09.254 --> 03:13.654 just reproducing themselves getting into this dangerous 03:13.646 --> 03:16.546 thing where-- with the very high death rates, 03:16.554 --> 03:19.214 where the whole society at that rate won't continue-- 03:19.210 --> 03:29.170 and a factor of three women which will do just fine. 03:29.169 --> 03:32.029 You can see the same thing at the age of marriage, 03:32.034 --> 03:35.134 not only the numbers of marriage of course but the age 03:35.133 --> 03:36.073 of marriage. 03:36.068 --> 03:39.258 During the early 1800s remember that was a time when the 03:39.260 --> 03:43.040 American food is there, European population was rising, 03:43.044 --> 03:46.864 strong as a high birth rate so land hunger became-- 03:46.860 --> 03:50.300 land--there was no extra land available so marriage became 03:50.301 --> 03:54.281 later and later, and eventually reached 23 to 28 03:54.282 --> 03:58.672 for females and even older than that for males. 03:58.669 --> 04:03.659 By that time probably the average lifespan was 35, 04:03.658 --> 04:08.028 it had improved some, but if you're fertile at say 15 04:08.030 --> 04:12.350 and you don't marry until 28, that's a huge chunk of your 04:12.354 --> 04:15.324 reproductive life where you're not reproducing, 04:15.318 --> 04:20.568 that reduces the birth rate and keeps the population in check. 04:20.569 --> 04:26.389 However, once in marriage, the children just flowed. 04:26.389 --> 04:30.129 There was no--apparently no control within marriage 04:30.127 --> 04:31.097 whatsoever. 04:31.100 --> 04:36.520 In 300 years--all the data that we have says that in 300 years 04:36.521 --> 04:42.121 in Europe there was no control of fertility within marriage, 04:42.120 --> 04:44.700 all the control, all the social control of 04:44.697 --> 04:47.777 population was in how many people got married, 04:47.779 --> 04:51.929 what they called the nuptiality; the fraction of people that got 04:51.934 --> 04:55.664 married was the total mechanism of social control. 04:55.660 --> 04:59.260 There's of course external control by disease, 04:59.259 --> 05:02.809 by famines because some plague of the plants, 05:02.810 --> 05:06.700 and then there were individual controls which we've talked 05:06.704 --> 05:08.964 about infanticide and so forth. 05:08.959 --> 05:12.469 In terms of social controls, the northwestern-- 05:12.470 --> 05:16.340 the Northern Europeans, especially northwestern 05:16.338 --> 05:20.878 European model was controlled marriage and it was quite 05:20.882 --> 05:22.062 effective. 05:22.060 --> 05:26.150 These marriage controls didn't just happen automatically, 05:26.148 --> 05:30.378 people just didn't sort of have a rational sense that said, 05:30.382 --> 05:32.502 'Oh I can't get married.' 05:32.500 --> 05:34.930 There was really--the controls were forced upon them. 05:34.930 --> 05:41.050 Most land was owned by some landowner and the man was given 05:41.053 --> 05:44.963 a plot of land which he could work. 05:44.959 --> 05:48.329 It was the size so that one individual could work this plot 05:48.329 --> 05:48.909 of land. 05:48.910 --> 05:51.990 He starts having children. 05:51.990 --> 05:57.000 Well the landlord knows that only one son is needed to farm 05:56.997 --> 06:01.967 that land, and the father knows he can 06:01.966 --> 06:08.936 only give that land to one son, so there's tremendous pressure 06:08.937 --> 06:12.867 if you have extra children they can't stay at home. 06:12.870 --> 06:15.290 You'll see when we talk about China a very different model. 06:15.290 --> 06:18.390 He can't stay at home, those people are forced off to 06:18.394 --> 06:20.994 the cities, and in the cities are very 06:20.992 --> 06:23.572 dangerous and disease ridden places, 06:23.569 --> 06:27.709 so they just die in the cities, and the cities are growing this 06:27.714 --> 06:31.264 time but very high death rates still in the cities. 06:31.259 --> 06:34.749 About one-third, each generation had to be 06:34.745 --> 06:40.095 replenished as I've mentioned to you, but about one-third in the 06:40.103 --> 06:41.043 cities. 06:41.040 --> 06:44.800 The landlord of course didn't want these extra children around 06:44.795 --> 06:48.365 because he would have more and more people to feed with the 06:48.367 --> 06:52.307 same amount of land therefore the same amount of production. 06:52.310 --> 06:56.140 You had to get the landlord's permission in order to get 06:56.137 --> 07:00.517 married and if you didn't--if he didn't have extra land for you, 07:00.521 --> 07:02.541 you couldn't get married. 07:02.540 --> 07:05.170 Of course officially it wasn't the landlord but it was the 07:05.173 --> 07:07.673 local parish church that you had to get married in, 07:07.670 --> 07:11.400 but guess who hired the parish minister or priest? 07:11.399 --> 07:14.969 The local landlord, and the whole structure of 07:14.970 --> 07:19.650 churches almost everywhere is that they are very much either 07:19.651 --> 07:23.701 controlled by or mutual support of the gentry, 07:23.699 --> 07:30.009 the rich people and the religious authorities intermix. 07:30.009 --> 07:34.169 They weren't allowed to get married either by the landlord 07:34.172 --> 07:35.562 or by the church. 07:35.560 --> 07:37.600 It was very--you had to post what they called banns so 07:37.598 --> 07:39.098 everybody knew there was a marriage, 07:39.100 --> 07:40.820 and of course the landlord would notice, 07:40.819 --> 07:47.469 and so it was impossible to do anything about that. 07:47.470 --> 07:52.170 Another mechanism was going off and becoming a servant that was 07:52.170 --> 07:55.430 one of the very standard kinds of things. 07:55.430 --> 08:01.010 They would leave home very young become a servant and-- 08:01.009 --> 08:03.659 males and females both servants in the houses, 08:03.660 --> 08:07.010 you've all seen these Victorian movies and earlier movies, 08:07.009 --> 08:08.919 how many servants they have. 08:08.920 --> 08:11.580 Of course they were never allowed to get married, 08:11.579 --> 08:14.279 not allowed to have sex, no boyfriend, 08:14.278 --> 08:15.948 no girlfriend, none of that was allowed-- 08:15.949 --> 08:19.559 very, very strict rules on house servants and house 08:19.564 --> 08:23.764 servants were a very large faction of the young people-- 08:23.759 --> 08:30.399 of everybody in, say, England. 08:30.399 --> 08:33.709 Then those that didn't become servants would go off and become 08:33.711 --> 08:34.581 an apprentice. 08:34.580 --> 08:38.010 One son stays at home, the others go off and become 08:38.009 --> 08:40.999 apprentices, and apprenticeship was a very 08:40.995 --> 08:45.035 long period of time in which they had to learn the skills and 08:45.041 --> 08:48.551 get some sort of resources so that they could buy the 08:48.547 --> 08:53.197 equipment and rent the shop and set up eventually on their own, 08:53.200 --> 08:58.510 or wait until the master died and then inherit the master's 08:58.506 --> 08:59.236 place. 08:59.240 --> 09:03.530 The end result of all this is that it took many, 09:03.532 --> 09:08.742 many years to establish a sufficient economic base so that 09:08.736 --> 09:13.026 the society would allow you to get married. 09:13.029 --> 09:17.719 Many people never got married; I'll show you a little bit 09:17.721 --> 09:21.611 later what the marriage rates actually were in Europe during 09:21.609 --> 09:24.309 this period, and its surprisingly low. 09:24.309 --> 09:26.369 The culture adapts to this. 09:26.370 --> 09:30.030 What do all these unmarried men and women do? 09:30.029 --> 09:35.189 We have the spinster woman; we have the confirmed bachelor, 09:35.192 --> 09:38.552 again you've seen men in much British comedy and British 09:38.551 --> 09:40.711 movies about-- always has characters in it 09:40.711 --> 09:44.491 where some confirmed bachelor, he's just not getting married. 09:44.490 --> 09:48.620 Presumably a fair amount of the homosexuality that was present, 09:48.620 --> 09:51.980 especially in the British upper classes is due to this whole 09:51.979 --> 09:55.509 tradition that a lot of males are not going to get married, 09:55.509 --> 09:59.289 and then they do something with their sexual impulse. 09:59.289 --> 10:03.519 Of course that's not proven; we don't really understand the 10:03.524 --> 10:05.934 basis of homosexuality. 10:05.928 --> 10:08.818 Females were also, like the males, 10:08.820 --> 10:12.490 forced off the land, if they were not the wife of 10:12.494 --> 10:15.484 the one son that inherited the land, 10:15.480 --> 10:18.430 they had to go somewhere else so they went to the cities where 10:18.427 --> 10:22.717 there were not jobs, especially not jobs for women 10:22.717 --> 10:27.867 so they become sort of a floating population, 10:27.870 --> 10:31.940 very largely prostitutes--huge explosion of prostitution at 10:31.942 --> 10:36.162 this time both because of the excess women that are trying to 10:36.157 --> 10:39.737 stay alive that have migrated into the cities, 10:39.740 --> 10:44.670 and there's all these bachelors there having some sort of job 10:44.671 --> 10:47.631 that could pay for their services. 10:47.629 --> 10:54.969 Of course you know that babies that resulted from any of these 10:54.970 --> 11:02.190 situations were very often just abandoned and left to die. 11:02.190 --> 11:07.130 This control of marriage, that marriage was the control, 11:07.129 --> 11:11.339 the social control on population lasted well into the 11:11.341 --> 11:14.281 1800s, well into and possibly even 11:14.283 --> 11:16.503 through the Victorian era. 11:16.500 --> 11:20.150 These mechanisms together reduced the north European 11:20.149 --> 11:24.439 birthrate, and especially in England, to about 50% of what it 11:24.442 --> 11:26.592 otherwise could have been. 11:26.590 --> 11:31.020 Remember we did calculations of how many children one can have, 11:31.023 --> 11:34.963 and then there's always examples much to the high end of 11:34.956 --> 11:35.596 that. 11:35.600 --> 11:39.200 But in England taking a reasonable number, 11:39.196 --> 11:44.016 these controls of marriage cut the birthrate in half. 11:44.019 --> 11:50.329 What did it feel like to the people involved in this? 11:50.330 --> 11:56.070 I suspect a fair number of you have heard this quote. 11:56.070 --> 12:00.160 It's a letter from a woman to her uncle. 12:00.158 --> 12:03.488 Don't shout out but raise your hand if you know it. 12:03.490 --> 12:06.990 "I think dearest uncle that you cannot really wish me 12:06.990 --> 12:09.510 to be the mother of a numerous family, 12:09.509 --> 12:14.429 for I think you will see the great inconvenience in a large 12:14.431 --> 12:17.911 family would be the hardship to myself. 12:17.908 --> 12:22.078 Men never think what a hard task it is for us women to go 12:22.075 --> 12:25.195 through this pregnancy very often." 12:25.200 --> 12:26.310 Have you heard this? 12:26.308 --> 12:28.498 No, no one's heard this letter, it's very famous. 12:28.500 --> 12:31.630 This is a woman in this situation. 12:31.629 --> 12:33.729 She's married, and therefore she's having 12:33.725 --> 12:36.655 children one after the other with no kind of control, 12:36.658 --> 12:39.108 and she's complaining, 'this is hard on me and why 12:39.114 --> 12:41.674 don't you men ever think how hard this is on me?' 12:41.668 --> 12:44.268 What social class, is this a poor woman, 12:44.270 --> 12:46.940 middle class woman, upper class woman? 12:46.940 --> 12:54.340 Having all this--no ideas; it's Queen Victoria. 12:54.340 --> 12:57.280 Here's by far the richest woman in the world, 12:57.279 --> 12:59.149 has all the help, all the money, 12:59.153 --> 13:01.093 all the food, and, even for her, 13:01.089 --> 13:04.319 it's a burden and she probably doesn't have to do much of the 13:04.322 --> 13:07.342 burden except handle the pregnancy and childbearing, 13:07.340 --> 13:11.340 and if she perceives it as a burden, 13:11.340 --> 13:14.860 then can you imagine what the common woman thinks of it. 13:14.860 --> 13:22.990 By the way, it's Queen Victoria to her uncle who is King Leopold 13:22.988 --> 13:28.018 of Belgium, you've heard this before. 13:28.019 --> 13:44.839 When sexuality itself since--a lot of problems with sexuality 13:44.836 --> 13:49.036 at that time. 13:49.038 --> 13:52.118 You've been reading some stuff about it, 13:52.120 --> 13:55.830 and one of the things is that men, aside from the childbirth 13:55.833 --> 13:59.613 aspect of it that women were of course always worried that if 13:59.610 --> 14:03.640 they had sex they would get pregnant and often they didn't-- 14:03.639 --> 14:06.929 usually they did not want to get pregnant, 14:06.928 --> 14:12.118 but also the men were not very skilled. 14:12.120 --> 14:15.740 They either did not know how to pleasure a woman, 14:15.736 --> 14:19.276 they didn't want to, or they thought it was very 14:19.278 --> 14:22.668 improper to even try to pleasure a woman. 14:22.668 --> 14:27.848 Here's another quote from Lady Alice Huntington-- 14:27.850 --> 14:31.850 Hillingdon--1857, she died only in 1940 so we're 14:31.846 --> 14:36.266 really coming up to fairly recent kinds of times, 14:36.269 --> 14:39.309 and presumably, this was written in her journal 14:39.308 --> 14:39.968 in 1912. 14:39.970 --> 14:43.040 No one can find that journal so they don't know the state of-- 14:43.038 --> 14:46.878 how apocryphal this is, but this is a quote that again 14:46.879 --> 14:50.869 you've probably heard, at least part of it. 14:50.870 --> 14:53.360 "I am happy now that George," 14:53.356 --> 14:55.976 her husband, "calls on my bedchamber 14:55.975 --> 14:58.065 less frequently then of old. 14:58.070 --> 15:02.380 As it is, I now endure but two calls a week and, 15:02.379 --> 15:04.979 when I hear his steps outside my door, 15:04.980 --> 15:08.020 I lie down upon my bed, close my eyes, 15:08.019 --> 15:12.219 open my legs and think of England." 15:12.220 --> 15:15.590 Sometimes the quote is, "think of Victoria," 15:15.586 --> 15:18.696 but apparently think of England is the proper-- 15:18.700 --> 15:21.530 again we're not talking about some poor woman with a brutal 15:21.532 --> 15:25.162 husband, as in some Oliver Twist movies, 15:25.159 --> 15:28.449 this is a very high status lady. 15:28.450 --> 15:36.330 How did this change and who was arrayed against this? 15:36.330 --> 15:40.690 People, women especially, were not happy with the 15:40.690 --> 15:41.780 situation. 15:41.779 --> 15:44.169 Young men of course wanted to get married, 15:44.168 --> 15:47.648 couldn't until they were old, and we've talked about that 15:47.647 --> 15:51.247 situation in Africa where the bride price is very high, 15:51.250 --> 15:53.610 the old men control the bride price, 15:53.610 --> 15:57.250 they don't allow the young men to get married until there's 15:57.249 --> 15:58.629 almost a revolution. 15:58.629 --> 16:02.199 This is an aside, but with respect to the bride 16:02.197 --> 16:07.077 price, we hear a lot about older men marrying or having sex with 16:07.082 --> 16:08.482 younger women. 16:08.480 --> 16:10.770 In the West it's one of the things we sort of complain 16:10.769 --> 16:12.729 about, about other cultures that this 16:12.730 --> 16:15.590 great disparity in age-- an older man with a younger 16:15.587 --> 16:15.987 woman. 16:15.990 --> 16:19.270 We tend to blame the man who's getting married, 16:19.269 --> 16:22.049 but if you think of it from the point of view of their society, 16:22.048 --> 16:24.908 that man has been under the control of even older guys, 16:24.908 --> 16:28.188 the really powerful guys, and so he's been abused and not 16:28.193 --> 16:30.543 allowed to get married until he's old. 16:30.538 --> 16:33.468 The women of his age are already married to the much 16:33.471 --> 16:35.771 older guys so this is his only option. 16:35.769 --> 16:42.019 Again, within a society these things all intermingle and form 16:42.015 --> 16:46.275 a pattern, not necessarily a good pattern, 16:46.275 --> 16:50.865 not necessarily a pattern that the people like, 16:50.870 --> 16:54.010 but it is a tight web. 16:54.009 --> 16:57.929 Coming back to Europe, there was this unfortunate 16:57.933 --> 17:02.843 situation where young men weren't allowed to get married, 17:02.840 --> 17:04.390 young women weren't allowed to get married, 17:04.390 --> 17:08.050 once you're in marriage the sexual mores were so straight 17:08.045 --> 17:11.365 jacketed that it was not pleasurable for most of the 17:11.374 --> 17:14.964 women apparently, and who knows what the men were 17:14.963 --> 17:17.203 using, the Victorian pornography 17:17.195 --> 17:20.075 during this period is lots of mistresses, 17:20.078 --> 17:22.898 lots of prostitution and lots of being whipped. 17:22.900 --> 17:26.610 They loved to get punished themselves, which is a 17:26.606 --> 17:30.856 surprising preponderance of masochistic sexuality in the 17:30.855 --> 17:33.785 Victorian literature of that time. 17:33.788 --> 17:38.618 At least from our point of view, sexuality was a mess. 17:38.618 --> 17:39.868 So some people tried to change this, 17:39.868 --> 17:43.978 of course there's always pioneers, and in England one of 17:43.980 --> 17:46.820 the pioneers was a man and a woman, 17:46.818 --> 17:50.188 Charles Bradlaugh and Annie Besant. 17:50.190 --> 17:55.780 In 1877 family planning was--contraception was coming 17:55.782 --> 18:01.702 into possibility in England and so they distributed-- 18:01.700 --> 18:05.430 printed and distributed what we would now consider a very mild 18:05.432 --> 18:07.822 pamphlet about birth control called, 18:07.819 --> 18:09.669 The Fruits of Philosophy. 18:09.670 --> 18:13.920 It was very abstract and philosophical. 18:13.920 --> 18:15.520 Of course what happened to them? 18:15.519 --> 18:18.839 Arrested, indicted, and the official indictment 18:18.836 --> 18:23.156 accused them of 'inciting and encouraging the subjects of the 18:23.161 --> 18:26.781 Queen to indecent, obscene, unnatural, 18:26.777 --> 18:30.697 and immoral practices, and to bring them,' the 18:30.698 --> 18:33.498 citizens of the Queen, the subjects of the Queen, 18:33.500 --> 18:37.430 'to a state of wickedness, lewdness, and debauchery.' 18:37.430 --> 18:43.170 This is because they were saying that--well there's these 18:43.172 --> 18:49.122 things called condoms around and why don't you use them. 18:49.118 --> 18:52.258 This trial was very interesting in that in a culture there's 18:52.263 --> 18:54.293 certain things you can't talk about. 18:54.288 --> 18:57.268 If something is culturally forbidden, like almost anything 18:57.273 --> 19:00.153 to do with sex in marriage, you just couldn't talk about 19:00.153 --> 19:00.523 it. 19:00.519 --> 19:03.519 Now here's this big trial in London, very famous, 19:03.522 --> 19:07.222 all the newspapers are carrying it, and guess what everybody 19:07.215 --> 19:08.275 learns about? 19:08.278 --> 19:11.948 Birth control; and a very big thing and some 19:11.945 --> 19:14.075 scholars, some historians 19:14.077 --> 19:18.137 attribute--there's just the period when the use of birth 19:18.144 --> 19:21.844 control is increasing tremendously in England, 19:21.838 --> 19:23.808 -- and that this trial popularized it. 19:23.808 --> 19:27.968 What did we have something similar a few years ago in 19:27.970 --> 19:30.290 America with our President? 19:30.288 --> 19:33.888 Bill Clinton and oral sex, are you all too young to-- 19:33.890 --> 19:37.600 that was a taboo topic, you could not discuss it and 19:37.604 --> 19:40.874 then the right wing, the conservatives who were 19:40.873 --> 19:44.373 opposed to this kind of free sexual activity publicized it 19:44.365 --> 19:47.205 and publicized, and publicized it until every 19:47.213 --> 19:50.583 teenager in America knew about oral sex and now the data is 19:50.583 --> 19:54.013 that oral sex has just gone exponentially down into the high 19:54.009 --> 19:56.449 schools and even junior high schools. 19:56.450 --> 19:59.130 I could tell you stories about that, but I won't. 19:59.130 --> 20:08.550 With all this moralizing about it that the religious leaders, 20:08.548 --> 20:12.908 the political leaders, the medical doctors said it was 20:12.913 --> 20:16.273 bad for you, you've read some of that in 20:16.265 --> 20:19.345 your reading, everybody is--they were 20:19.345 --> 20:21.245 terrorized in a sense. 20:21.250 --> 20:24.360 There was an intellectual terrorization of the people, 20:24.361 --> 20:26.241 they feared legal prosecution. 20:26.240 --> 20:29.580 Most of these things were illegal, to buy things, 20:29.580 --> 20:31.950 to use things, to write about them, 20:31.946 --> 20:33.336 to publish them. 20:33.338 --> 20:36.688 They were told that they would get physical injury. 20:36.690 --> 20:40.820 You may have heard that masturbation will make you blind 20:40.816 --> 20:45.316 and that--I don't know if any of your parents said that but I 20:45.318 --> 20:47.118 heard it in my time. 20:47.118 --> 20:49.258 Mental injury, if it doesn't make you blind, 20:49.259 --> 20:53.629 it'll make you crazy, and deep moral reservations and 20:53.626 --> 20:58.916 just straight aesthetic distaste that when the society frowns on 20:58.916 --> 21:03.696 something we sort of have incorporated a kind of revulsion 21:03.703 --> 21:08.243 to anything which society considers disgusting, 21:08.240 --> 21:11.750 and contraceptives themselves were considered repulsive, 21:11.750 --> 21:16.310 unnatural, only for prostitutes, that kind of thing. 21:16.308 --> 21:19.568 Of course, at that time, almost--a lot of people were 21:19.571 --> 21:21.921 starting to do it, but since you couldn't talk 21:21.923 --> 21:25.273 about it publicly, no one knew what everyone else 21:25.267 --> 21:30.157 was doing so they thought they had to take this great leap 21:30.164 --> 21:35.064 themselves in defiance of everything that their culture is 21:35.063 --> 21:36.613 telling them. 21:36.608 --> 21:39.768 How did it--what happened an individual's starting to think 21:39.766 --> 21:40.906 about these things. 21:40.910 --> 21:47.760 We have some interesting--a lot of interesting stuff referred to 21:47.760 --> 21:49.610 in the reading. 21:49.608 --> 21:52.868 Some of this in your reading is letters to various pioneers, 21:52.868 --> 21:57.358 Margaret Sanger or who was it in England the-- 21:57.358 --> 21:59.648 I'm blocking on the name of the clinic in England . 21:59.650 --> 22:04.590 We have letters from women sort of begging information on how to 22:04.593 --> 22:07.343 keep from getting pregnant again. 22:07.338 --> 22:10.298 A lot of it is not with any official organizations, 22:10.304 --> 22:13.684 just women talking to women, and some of it can be relaxed 22:13.682 --> 22:15.582 at a little bit later stage. 22:15.578 --> 22:21.248 There's a series of nice interviews from the 1920s and 22:21.246 --> 22:27.226 1930s with elderly Italian and Jewish women in the United 22:27.232 --> 22:28.412 States. 22:28.410 --> 22:31.880 They talked to each other about technique, 22:31.880 --> 22:33.940 because techniques is one of the things, 22:33.940 --> 22:38.980 and this interview is from an Italian American woman born in 22:38.982 --> 22:39.672 the U.S. 22:39.666 --> 22:44.276 in 1920, recent immigrant parents, and the conversation 22:44.282 --> 22:47.192 took place in the late 1930s. 22:47.190 --> 22:52.090 She works in a hair dressing salon and she gets engaged, 22:52.088 --> 22:55.008 and of course all her coworkers know about it, 22:55.009 --> 22:58.029 and so an interviewer--an anthropologist-- 22:58.029 --> 23:01.109 a sociologist--goes in and starts asking her about it. 23:01.108 --> 23:04.118 Apparently prior to this little quote they had brought up the 23:04.119 --> 23:06.629 topic of birth control so the interviewer says, 23:06.630 --> 23:09.080 "How did you learn about condoms?" 23:09.078 --> 23:13.638 Nina: "One of my customers said, 'I really hope you don't 23:13.636 --> 23:16.696 get pregnant, let him wear a raincoat.' 23:16.700 --> 23:18.930 So I started wondering, I'm thinking, 23:18.933 --> 23:22.533 I'm working and my mind just can't work out what a raincoat 23:22.532 --> 23:23.342 is." 23:23.338 --> 23:27.878 Then Mary White who worked for me said, "Baby what's on 23:27.876 --> 23:28.796 your mind? 23:28.798 --> 23:33.238 I said, "Mrs. Jacobs said a funny thing to me, 23:33.243 --> 23:36.183 she said my ring was lovely," 23:36.176 --> 23:40.196 her marriage ring, "but she hoped I didn't 23:40.201 --> 23:43.161 start a family and he should wear a raincoat. 23:43.160 --> 23:46.310 But I can't ask Johnny to wear a raincoat to bed." 23:46.308 --> 23:50.368 This Mary White laughed and laughed and says, 23:50.366 --> 23:54.606 "She means he's to wear a condom." 23:54.608 --> 23:55.638 "What is it?" 23:55.644 --> 23:56.144 Nina said. 23:56.140 --> 24:00.040 And then she got told and got enlightened in this and it's 24:00.042 --> 24:04.152 that kind of conversation where individual people of not very 24:04.151 --> 24:08.191 high class are learning that it's okay to buck the trend and 24:08.191 --> 24:12.301 even the basic information they previously don't have. 24:12.298 --> 24:14.888 It doesn't always work out that, when these discussions 24:14.887 --> 24:17.327 take place, that the participants do take 24:17.327 --> 24:22.607 on the new behavior, sometimes they don't want to do 24:22.606 --> 24:23.366 that. 24:23.368 --> 24:27.068 Gossip--most conversation by humans is gossip and there's 24:27.068 --> 24:29.248 very good studies showing this. 24:29.250 --> 24:32.630 We know that from our chimps days we're a very social 24:32.625 --> 24:34.975 species, that status is so terribly 24:34.980 --> 24:38.640 important and status translates to social acceptability, 24:38.640 --> 24:42.070 so the purpose of gossip is to find out what the limits of 24:42.066 --> 24:43.686 social acceptability are. 24:43.690 --> 24:46.730 Gossip is almost exclusively about someone who has stepped 24:46.730 --> 24:49.980 over what was perceived to be the limit and either gotten away 24:49.984 --> 24:52.124 with it or not gotten away with it, 24:52.118 --> 24:54.978 or something that's now just inside the limit. 24:54.980 --> 24:58.950 A large fraction of gossip is to see what is socially 24:58.949 --> 25:02.139 acceptable in my circle, and sometimes like we've seen 25:02.136 --> 25:04.116 here, the use of condoms becomes 25:04.117 --> 25:07.927 socially acceptable as a result of discussions like this. 25:07.930 --> 25:15.130 Sometimes it--at least this individual at this time it 25:15.126 --> 25:18.926 doesn't become acceptable. 25:18.930 --> 25:23.600 Where is this other quote that I'm looking for? 25:23.598 --> 25:26.668 This is another two women, and the interviewer asks, 25:26.670 --> 25:29.680 "How did your friends have abortions?" 25:29.680 --> 25:32.570 The issue of abortions came up and as you probably have read or 25:32.573 --> 25:34.363 will read, abortions at this time were 25:34.356 --> 25:37.766 very, very common, all illegal, but very common. 25:37.769 --> 25:41.009 "Peggy, I'm trying to think what they 25:41.007 --> 25:43.927 would take because they'd tell me, 25:43.930 --> 25:47.080 a lot of them would have a friend who would put something 25:47.077 --> 25:49.887 up there that would bring on their period." 25:49.890 --> 25:52.120 The interviewer, "A knitting needle?" 25:52.118 --> 25:53.828 Peggy, "No not a knitting needle, 25:53.828 --> 25:57.968 some kind of fluid, like hot boiling water or salt 25:57.969 --> 26:00.539 water, they would ruin their insides, 26:00.541 --> 26:05.491 they would say, 'Oh Peggy don't you do that.' 26:05.490 --> 26:08.400 Oh no I would never do that, that's my husband, 26:08.401 --> 26:10.681 it's the man who takes care." 26:10.680 --> 26:15.420 It's interesting that in this particular case it's usually the 26:15.421 --> 26:18.531 woman's responsibility in most cases, 26:18.528 --> 26:21.358 but in this case whatever was going on in the marriage she 26:21.355 --> 26:23.235 perceived it as the husband's case, 26:23.240 --> 26:27.810 and in further discussion that it was his responsibility to use 26:27.809 --> 26:29.579 a condom all the time. 26:29.578 --> 26:36.418 The reason given by the woman is not any moral consideration, 26:36.420 --> 26:40.010 no life--that's not the consideration, 26:40.009 --> 26:43.229 but it's a medical thing, it's just at that time the 26:43.229 --> 26:46.879 methods since it was illegal, and if you didn't--even if you 26:46.878 --> 26:48.888 went to a practitioner it was very, 26:48.890 --> 26:51.370 very dangerous but the kinds of things that women actually used 26:51.368 --> 26:53.208 on themselves were so incredibly dangerous, 26:53.210 --> 26:57.270 so the reason she's not having an abortion is that she doesn't 26:57.265 --> 27:00.585 want to ruin herself in the medical sort of way. 27:00.588 --> 27:04.108 You take this same woman, transpose her 50 years later, 27:04.108 --> 27:07.418 where now abortion is safe and possibly legal, 27:07.420 --> 27:11.090 this same woman may have a very different attitude toward, 27:11.088 --> 27:14.718 but of course we don't know anything about that. 27:14.720 --> 27:21.960 The point of this--series of stories is a big change in 27:21.963 --> 27:25.723 culture, that prior--every society has 27:25.715 --> 27:30.345 to control population in some way and we've talked about the 27:30.346 --> 27:33.726 physical constraints, the disease and famines, 27:33.732 --> 27:37.292 we've talked about the social controls like not being able to 27:37.290 --> 27:40.380 get married, but up until--in Europe up 27:40.384 --> 27:44.764 until very recently there was no individual control. 27:44.759 --> 27:48.279 Individuals themselves did not have the cultural freedom to 27:48.278 --> 27:50.218 make these kinds of decisions. 27:50.220 --> 27:53.820 Once married, procreation just keeps going 27:53.820 --> 27:58.830 one after the other until either someone dies or the woman 27:58.827 --> 28:00.757 becomes infertile. 28:00.759 --> 28:05.019 Now we're seeing a transition where individuals can start 28:05.023 --> 28:08.643 deciding for themselves, a very big change in the 28:08.640 --> 28:12.610 extension of agency that what a person thinks they can control 28:12.605 --> 28:13.965 about their lives. 28:13.970 --> 28:22.480 Here is an elderly Jewish woman, who was talking about her 28:22.482 --> 28:31.152 mother and said the way the neighbors now start controlling 28:31.145 --> 28:34.485 this, so the mother who did not use 28:34.489 --> 28:38.509 any kind of fertility control, her friends and relatives would 28:38.507 --> 28:40.737 sort of get on her case but mild, 28:40.740 --> 28:42.020 chided her mildly. 28:42.019 --> 28:44.009 When she would get pregnant they would say, 28:44.009 --> 28:48.919 'Oh!, Esther not another belly,' and so at this time 28:48.920 --> 28:52.240 friends, relatives, neighbors start 28:52.237 --> 28:54.927 imposing a new culture on you. 28:54.930 --> 29:00.510 There's some aspects of freedom that the individual now gets to 29:00.509 --> 29:05.639 choose but the culture comes on and now at least starts to 29:05.640 --> 29:09.060 import a new cultural norm on you. 29:09.058 --> 29:13.938 In Sicily, reputed to have very high, 29:13.940 --> 29:15.820 actually having high fertility rates, 29:15.818 --> 29:20.908 but at some point they go through their transition and 29:20.913 --> 29:23.703 this is in 1980-- in the 1980s, 29:23.700 --> 29:28.130 very late, and this is a report of woman who's one of the few 29:28.132 --> 29:30.942 remaining peasants in this village. 29:30.940 --> 29:34.430 Sicily, like all the rest of the world, is changing and 29:34.429 --> 29:35.269 growing up. 29:35.269 --> 29:39.149 She reported that these families that still had child 29:39.152 --> 29:43.032 after child, after child, their neighbors called them 29:43.034 --> 29:43.934 animals. 29:43.930 --> 29:50.780 And this is Sicilian to Sicilian. 29:50.779 --> 29:57.019 Here's another example of this, a Jewish immigrant in the U.S. 29:57.019 --> 29:59.959 writing to her mother back in Poland. 29:59.960 --> 30:01.750 This is a lovely letter. 30:01.750 --> 30:05.150 "Here in America, it is the custom that if a 30:05.150 --> 30:09.190 woman wants to she has a baby, and if she does not want to 30:09.188 --> 30:11.028 have any, she doesn't. 30:11.028 --> 30:13.348 David's wife, I don't know if that's a 30:13.354 --> 30:16.434 brother or something, "David's wife says that 30:16.431 --> 30:19.071 she will have a baby every four years. 30:19.068 --> 30:22.018 I think it is good to have one every three years, 30:22.015 --> 30:24.955 and so after three years I shall have another. 30:24.960 --> 30:28.040 It is terrible that at home women suffer only hardships in 30:28.036 --> 30:29.166 childbearing." 30:29.170 --> 30:34.140 Home being Poland in this case. 30:34.140 --> 30:36.470 It's really interesting that the technology is not of 30:36.471 --> 30:37.281 interest to her. 30:37.279 --> 30:40.539 She doesn't--in this case talk about the wonderful new 30:40.536 --> 30:44.216 contraceptives that they have in America which of course they 30:44.221 --> 30:46.251 would not have had in Poland. 30:46.250 --> 30:49.090 Nor about the availability of--the knowledge about it, 30:49.088 --> 30:51.448 the availability of it, the technology of it, 30:51.446 --> 30:53.426 she doesn't talk about economics. 30:53.430 --> 30:55.950 She doesn't say, 'Oh we can't afford it or we 30:55.950 --> 30:58.300 can afford,' any of that sort of stuff. 30:58.298 --> 31:01.808 She talks about what to her is this startling new idea that's 31:01.810 --> 31:04.770 under her control, that she can choose herself 31:04.773 --> 31:07.773 what to do, and someone else can make a 31:07.769 --> 31:10.009 different kind of a choice. 31:10.009 --> 31:14.409 What she's exuberant about is the lack of cultural 31:14.412 --> 31:17.992 constraints; she's now a free individual to 31:17.987 --> 31:21.537 navigate the world as she sees it in herself. 31:21.539 --> 31:37.619 31:37.618 --> 31:42.168 Also in all these discussions men are rarely mentioned, 31:42.170 --> 31:44.860 it really is sort of women's decision here, 31:44.858 --> 31:48.978 and the women are working it out, and again in most of these 31:48.980 --> 31:51.290 things-- well in a lot of these things 31:51.288 --> 31:54.238 sometimes it is the man, 'no matter what I say he won't 31:54.237 --> 31:57.397 stay away from me,' but once the contraception comes in then men 31:57.401 --> 32:00.321 want the sex and you get a lot of conflict if they're using 32:00.315 --> 32:04.665 contraception, but once contraception comes in 32:04.672 --> 32:10.082 it seems to be much easier to manage the females. 32:10.078 --> 32:22.778 You have read some of this in your readings. 32:22.778 --> 32:27.218 Until the demographic--so now I'm going to go back to talking 32:27.218 --> 32:30.228 about marriage-- until the demographic 32:30.233 --> 32:33.753 revolution as I said, the marriages rates are 32:33.748 --> 32:37.228 controlled by the community not the individual. 32:37.230 --> 32:41.900 Let's look at the marriage rates here if I can find them 32:41.904 --> 32:42.844 without-- 32:42.839 --> 33:01.959 33:01.960 --> 33:06.060 this is Belgium and various provinces in Belgium, 33:06.058 --> 33:10.898 and Belgium as you know is a totally Catholic country, 33:10.900 --> 33:14.190 and we will talk a little bit more about Belgium in a minute. 33:14.190 --> 33:20.510 Here are the dates from before the transition to 1970, 33:20.509 --> 33:22.179 very recent. 33:22.180 --> 33:28.340 This is the marital index, what fraction got married and 33:28.338 --> 33:33.298 look at that 40%, only 40% of people got married 33:33.298 --> 33:36.388 in that year-- that ever married, 33:36.394 --> 33:41.504 so more than half of people are not getting married. 33:41.500 --> 33:45.010 We think of the old days as everybody had to get married. 33:45.009 --> 33:45.219 No. 33:45.215 --> 33:48.175 As time goes on, as the fertility transition 33:48.178 --> 33:52.518 takes place as people are having fewer and fewer children within 33:52.516 --> 33:55.666 marriage, the marriage rate goes up 33:55.672 --> 34:00.512 drastically until it's 70%, 75%, which is kind of a modern 34:00.509 --> 34:01.189 rate. 34:01.190 --> 34:03.180 The same thing, this is another set of 34:03.180 --> 34:05.480 provinces, another set of provinces, 34:05.478 --> 34:08.218 there's Antwerp, the big cities, 34:08.224 --> 34:13.334 Luxemburg which--a lot of provinces in Belgium. 34:13.329 --> 34:18.999 A very interesting thing is that, again keeping in mind that 34:19.000 --> 34:23.230 societies have to control their fertility. 34:23.230 --> 34:26.590 If you're controlling marriage, if you don't have any mechanism 34:26.594 --> 34:29.744 of contraception then when people get married they're going 34:29.740 --> 34:32.510 to have babies boom, boom, boom, boom so you have to 34:32.509 --> 34:35.509 control one method, you have to control the number 34:35.512 --> 34:39.702 of marriages, so you control it extremely, 34:39.695 --> 34:41.505 40% marriages. 34:41.510 --> 34:43.060 In China--we're going to talk about China later-- 34:43.059 --> 34:47.499 do you know what the rate of--the Americans complain and 34:47.503 --> 34:52.353 Chinese too to some degree about the one child policy and the 34:52.351 --> 34:55.631 excess of female -- of males--that there aren't 34:55.625 --> 34:58.395 enough girls to get married and this is going to cause 34:58.402 --> 35:00.082 incredible social disruption. 35:00.079 --> 35:04.329 You know what the rate--what the absence of females is there? 35:04.329 --> 35:09.099 At maximum like 15% or 18% and so nothing like--here 60% of 35:09.097 --> 35:11.727 people aren't getting married. 35:11.730 --> 35:16.530 The Chinese situation is still above--if all the males--if all 35:16.528 --> 35:20.618 the females get married something like 85% of men can 35:20.621 --> 35:21.881 get married. 35:21.880 --> 35:25.890 If you compare China and Europe, it's again, 35:25.885 --> 35:31.655 it's not necessarily a reality based thing this worry about the 35:31.659 --> 35:33.709 male/female ratio. 35:33.710 --> 35:41.410 35:41.409 --> 35:48.009 This is a map of Europe, and the whole of Europe 35:48.010 --> 35:54.430 including Russia, and this is 1870 and it was 35:54.434 --> 35:57.684 1870 Europe, this was from the Princeton 35:57.681 --> 36:00.731 project and every one of these little things is a province of 36:00.731 --> 36:02.931 Europe, and every one these provinces 36:02.931 --> 36:06.161 they've collected data on everything under the sun for, 36:06.159 --> 36:08.779 and this is the marriage rate. 36:08.780 --> 36:13.950 Look here, the red is less than 30% and you have an occasional 36:13.947 --> 36:17.947 place, northern Scotland, 36:17.945 --> 36:24.805 I think is--it's not Bulgaria, Bulgaria is more over here, 36:24.811 --> 36:27.161 I can't tell from the map but it's a province in the south 36:27.159 --> 36:27.489 here. 36:27.489 --> 36:31.329 Look at the red here, that's under 40% of people are 36:31.329 --> 36:35.999 getting married and then some of the lighter stuff you get into 36:35.998 --> 36:37.428 the 40% to 50%. 36:37.429 --> 36:41.009 The same true through middle Europe: Germany, 36:41.009 --> 36:43.689 Austria, Switzerland, Scandinavia, 36:43.693 --> 36:44.673 Finland. 36:44.670 --> 36:47.390 All through here they're all in the 50% and less, 36:47.391 --> 36:50.001 less than 50% of people are getting married. 36:50.000 --> 36:54.620 1870--a little bit in Spain you get up into a more reasonable 36:54.619 --> 36:59.469 range and you have to go all the way out to the Caspian Sea, 36:59.469 --> 37:02.339 the border of the Caspian Sea to find people getting married, 37:02.340 --> 37:05.390 80% of the people getting married, a number that we 37:05.394 --> 37:08.394 consider something sort of reasonable for our-- 37:08.389 --> 37:11.779 not now because marriage rate is falling but that was the 37:11.775 --> 37:14.915 general preconception of Westerners growing up in our 37:14.918 --> 37:18.298 society is that from time immemorial almost everybody got 37:18.302 --> 37:21.212 married, but it's not the case. 37:21.210 --> 37:25.190 The Eastern Europe, which was in a rather different 37:25.186 --> 37:27.966 mold, had a higher marriage rate. 37:27.969 --> 37:32.879 Now you look at this, this is 1870 and you come up to 37:32.878 --> 37:37.788 after the fertility transition and look what happens, 37:37.786 --> 37:40.426 everybody's gone bluish. 37:40.429 --> 37:43.689 Marriage has just shot up all over Europe, including--which is 37:43.688 --> 37:46.918 actually what you've got left; these are sort of doing the 37:46.920 --> 37:50.070 reverse, but Western Europe where we have lots of lots of 37:50.074 --> 37:53.124 good data and understanding there's almost nothing pink 37:53.115 --> 37:53.675 left. 37:53.679 --> 38:01.029 Guess now who has the lowest marriage rate? 38:01.030 --> 38:01.610 Ireland. 38:01.610 --> 38:05.510 What's special about Ireland at this time? 38:05.510 --> 38:09.700 Catholic and no contraception so they're not allowed to get 38:09.697 --> 38:10.417 married. 38:10.420 --> 38:14.210 They're back in the 30%, 40% and that's sort of very 38:14.206 --> 38:17.546 characteristic of the sociology of Ireland. 38:17.550 --> 38:21.160 That the men are very close to their mother and get married 38:21.161 --> 38:24.091 either very late or don't get married at all. 38:24.090 --> 38:25.900 Whereas England, their Protestant neighbor, 38:25.900 --> 38:31.210 sharing all kinds of other cultural aspects is up there in 38:31.213 --> 38:36.283 the 70% to 75% of marriage, so that's one of the really 38:36.275 --> 38:40.885 amazing kinds of things that happened that basically the 38:40.893 --> 38:44.963 spread of marriage; that in Europe--different story 38:44.960 --> 38:47.470 in other parts of the world that-- 38:47.469 --> 38:51.059 because of the need to control total population in the old days 38:51.057 --> 38:54.467 people just weren't allowed to get married because once they 38:54.472 --> 38:58.122 were in marriage they weren't allowed to use contraception. 38:58.119 --> 39:02.739 Once you flip that equation and open up to individual decision, 39:02.739 --> 39:05.999 there's no requirement--that in all of this there's no 39:05.998 --> 39:09.808 requirement to use contraception but families naturally want to 39:09.811 --> 39:13.251 have fewer children then they would have naturally and so 39:13.253 --> 39:15.533 fertility in a family declines. 39:15.530 --> 39:20.930 The social control of marriage is not needed anymore and the 39:20.927 --> 39:24.037 marriage rate goes up very high. 39:24.039 --> 39:27.009 Of course along with marriage that--I call this a 39:27.014 --> 39:30.304 democratization effect, marriage gets democratized and 39:30.298 --> 39:32.528 of course sex gets democratized. 39:32.530 --> 39:35.680 Prior to this, all these people that aren't 39:35.679 --> 39:39.669 married either have no sex, or they have homosexual sex, 39:39.668 --> 39:42.848 they go to prostitutes, I mean they--we don't know much 39:42.851 --> 39:46.011 about how much sex they had but they had some sort of sex, 39:46.010 --> 39:48.790 and that was what society demanded of them. 39:48.789 --> 39:52.419 Normal marital sex was not allowed and a small fraction 39:52.422 --> 39:55.182 were able to get married and have sex-- 39:55.179 --> 39:58.559 so along with the democratization of marriage you 39:58.556 --> 40:01.226 also get the democratization of sex. 40:01.230 --> 40:08.430 40:08.429 --> 40:16.709 Let's look at some of the details of this happening. 40:16.710 --> 40:19.830 While I've got these pictures, these big maps are hard for the 40:19.829 --> 40:21.619 computer to calculate apparently. 40:21.619 --> 40:41.389 40:41.389 --> 40:46.319 This is some the contraceptives that were coming at this time. 40:46.320 --> 40:48.990 Some of these--there's several museums in the world that get 40:48.994 --> 40:51.954 all the contra-- one is just stones, 40:51.952 --> 40:57.272 putting stones in the-- other sort of various forms of 40:57.266 --> 41:00.826 blocking the canal to absorb the semen, 41:00.829 --> 41:03.829 and you put cotton or something in a little bag like this, 41:03.829 --> 41:06.749 put it in the vagina and--these all helped. 41:06.750 --> 41:10.360 This, I don't know exactly what that is, but again some blocking 41:10.362 --> 41:13.522 substance, then they could be made not only of vegetable 41:13.516 --> 41:14.946 matter, but of metal. 41:14.949 --> 41:19.999 There's a whole bunch of things called pessaries where the 41:20.003 --> 41:25.323 cap--a cap made out of porcelain or something is put over the 41:25.324 --> 41:26.304 cervix. 41:26.300 --> 41:29.970 There are--this is a variety of condoms, 41:29.969 --> 41:33.549 including some fairly modern ones, but the older ones-- 41:33.550 --> 41:37.000 this is an old way they were made--older ones looked like 41:37.003 --> 41:42.013 this and what do you think was-- how they originally made 41:42.009 --> 41:43.099 condoms? 41:43.099 --> 41:47.329 The technology was borrowed from something else. 41:47.329 --> 41:53.099 What else comes very commonly purchased item come--sausages, 41:53.101 --> 41:54.081 exactly. 41:54.079 --> 41:58.739 What was--before there was plastics what was sausage casing 41:58.735 --> 41:59.855 made out of? 41:59.860 --> 42:03.250 Intestines, animal intestines, they can be made very thin 42:03.250 --> 42:06.580 because they're just a small barrier for absorption, 42:06.579 --> 42:10.959 very thin and so they were called skins and I don't know 42:10.960 --> 42:16.320 which of these things are which, but that was not a very 42:16.318 --> 42:21.678 difficult technology to make them out of skins. 42:21.679 --> 42:25.849 Here are some more modern things, various kinds of IUDs, 42:25.853 --> 42:29.883 everything under the sun was tried, including the more 42:29.875 --> 42:30.705 modern. 42:30.710 --> 42:42.480 42:42.480 --> 42:43.920 This is a very ancient technique. 42:43.920 --> 42:46.220 People at different times have believed that almost anything 42:46.217 --> 42:49.327 works as a contraceptive, this is a bone on a string, 42:49.326 --> 42:52.266 again placed inside, and heaven knows what the 42:52.268 --> 42:53.928 theory was why that would work. 42:53.929 --> 42:57.689 It might have just prevented the man from entering far enough 42:57.690 --> 42:59.320 or something, who knows. 42:59.320 --> 43:04.390 The string, like a modern IUD, whereas a string hangs out and 43:04.393 --> 43:06.343 you can pull it down. 43:06.340 --> 43:09.910 One of the problems with modern IUDs until recently, 43:09.909 --> 43:13.899 and the same problem here, you have a string and what does 43:13.900 --> 43:15.160 the string do? 43:15.159 --> 43:20.029 It's a route for bacteria to swim up so the strings are 43:20.027 --> 43:21.737 dangerous things. 43:21.739 --> 43:26.399 Let me get back to the beginning of this a little bit. 43:26.400 --> 43:45.420 43:45.420 --> 43:47.910 Now we've talked about individuals sort of in a variety 43:47.907 --> 43:50.807 of ways how this happened to individuals and cultural things. 43:50.809 --> 43:54.039 Here--you didn't--this wasn't in your reading this particular 43:54.039 --> 43:54.469 graph. 43:54.469 --> 43:57.029 So here is a graph of the date, again Europe, 43:57.030 --> 44:00.260 the different countries of Europe and when-- 44:00.260 --> 44:03.250 within marriage what their rate of fertility was within 44:03.246 --> 44:06.386 marriage, with actually 1.0 being the 44:06.389 --> 44:11.259 Hutterite level which is the maximum level people have 44:11.257 --> 44:12.357 achieved. 44:12.360 --> 44:16.740 What do you make out of that? 44:16.739 --> 44:18.689 It's kind of a mess, right? 44:18.690 --> 44:22.860 You can see something, you can see France being lower 44:22.856 --> 44:26.456 already by 1860, we know it had its transition 44:26.463 --> 44:29.593 and you can't really see much else. 44:29.590 --> 44:33.870 One of the data that you read about, 44:33.869 --> 44:39.559 if you take those same graphs and now change their time thing 44:39.556 --> 44:42.826 and ask, well let's gather each graph at 44:42.827 --> 44:45.317 the point-- there's a traditional level of 44:45.318 --> 44:47.168 fertility, eight or so children, 44:47.168 --> 44:50.428 and in each country it may be a little different somewhere 44:50.425 --> 44:53.735 between six and eight, and then at some point it 44:53.744 --> 44:57.864 starts to drop and when it's dropped by 10% is a critical 44:57.855 --> 45:00.355 stage, so the Princeton people argued, 45:00.362 --> 45:03.762 and so they've gathered-- this is the years after 45:03.755 --> 45:07.445 reaching the 90%, so at this point in time all of 45:07.454 --> 45:09.514 these countries have dropped. 45:09.510 --> 45:15.850 These curves are gathered to put together the point where 45:15.853 --> 45:21.973 they reach 10% drop from their pre-transition level. 45:21.969 --> 45:23.579 Then it makes more sense. 45:23.579 --> 45:27.999 Look at the way it falls down like crazy until it hits some 45:27.998 --> 45:32.798 sort of roughly a new plateau at about half or so of the earlier 45:32.798 --> 45:36.468 plateau, a little bit less than half. 45:36.469 --> 45:40.579 The amount of time here, this is zero years and it's all 45:40.583 --> 45:44.643 over maybe in 50 years, and if you look at any one 45:44.635 --> 45:48.195 place it's a much shorter period than that. 45:48.199 --> 45:51.819 Within a very--what Princeton decided a couple of things. 45:51.820 --> 45:55.530 One that's hard to figure out but there was, 45:55.530 --> 45:58.180 for some reason, various groups started their 45:58.184 --> 46:02.234 fertility decline and we'll talk about various theories of that, 46:02.230 --> 46:05.400 but once it became--whereas everyone else was horrified 46:05.402 --> 46:08.082 about whatever they say, it was rich people, 46:08.083 --> 46:09.413 it was outcast people. 46:09.409 --> 46:13.249 How did in--so it was upper class--the fertility decline 46:13.246 --> 46:15.756 happened first among upper class, 46:15.760 --> 46:20.090 among city class, among Jews, and so it's always 46:20.090 --> 46:25.440 some sort of a non-majority social group that starts social 46:25.436 --> 46:26.446 change. 46:26.449 --> 46:31.219 What made the discussion of condoms legitimate? 46:31.219 --> 46:33.419 In America when I was in--you could not mention condom, 46:33.420 --> 46:36.030 no television discussion of it, news reports never mentioned 46:36.025 --> 46:38.865 it, and what is it that allowed 46:38.869 --> 46:42.309 condoms to be discussed in America? 46:42.309 --> 46:50.439 You know--AIDS epidemic, and where did the AIDS epidemic 46:50.443 --> 46:52.073 start in? 46:52.070 --> 46:54.920 Homosexuals, so a marginalized group starts 46:54.922 --> 46:57.712 something, it spreads into the culture. 46:57.710 --> 47:00.820 Where do our clothing fashions often come from? 47:00.820 --> 47:04.080 From the poorest kids often, I can see-- 47:04.079 --> 47:07.039 go into the ghetto and see what the kids are wearing and six 47:07.043 --> 47:09.863 years later you guys are going to be wearing exactly what 47:09.855 --> 47:13.505 they're wearing, long baggy pants and so forth 47:13.514 --> 47:15.944 and showing various parts. 47:15.940 --> 47:18.870 The idea is one, that something happens up here 47:18.873 --> 47:22.773 and there's a lot of discussion about that but once it becomes 47:22.766 --> 47:25.676 socially-- the idea is that once it 47:25.681 --> 47:29.041 reaches that 10% level, it just falls down, 47:29.039 --> 47:31.669 fertility just falls down like a stone. 47:31.670 --> 47:37.620 In this period, up here you can get all kinds 47:37.615 --> 47:41.985 of economic levels, that different economic groups 47:41.985 --> 47:45.695 are having different fertility, different educational groups, 47:45.695 --> 47:48.465 difference between urban and rural, 47:48.469 --> 47:51.489 difference in whether they're agricultural or in an industry, 47:51.489 --> 47:53.709 and you can find all these differences, 47:53.710 --> 47:58.150 but once this fertility thing starts like this, 47:58.150 --> 47:59.470 everybody does it. 47:59.469 --> 48:00.919 What they call these differentials, 48:00.920 --> 48:04.970 these socio economic differentials just disappear and 48:04.965 --> 48:09.555 a farmer is just as likely to be limiting his fertility as a 48:09.556 --> 48:12.276 bourgeois person in the cities. 48:12.280 --> 48:20.110 48:20.110 --> 48:24.190 If you try to think of how rapidly the economic situation 48:24.188 --> 48:26.488 changes, or how rapidly does education 48:26.489 --> 48:29.769 increase, and you look at all the various 48:29.769 --> 48:32.339 variables, none of them increase with this 48:32.344 --> 48:34.284 kind of rapidity, none of them change with that 48:34.284 --> 48:35.674 kind of ability, infant mortality, 48:35.670 --> 48:37.190 almost anything you can measure, 48:37.190 --> 48:43.580 nothing goes with that kind of a rate. 48:43.579 --> 48:52.089 What goes with that kind of a rate? 48:52.090 --> 48:53.210 A fad, a fashion. 48:53.210 --> 49:11.040 49:11.039 --> 49:14.589 If you look all around Europe, and this was in your reading, 49:14.594 --> 49:18.094 what you see is the date of the beginning of the decade. 49:18.090 --> 49:24.690 This is the decade where that 10% level was reached and what 49:24.690 --> 49:27.040 provinces are this? 49:27.039 --> 49:28.049 This is all France. 49:28.050 --> 49:31.010 Then there's a long delay, a surprisingly long delay, 49:31.010 --> 49:35.920 and boom all the rest of Europe then does it in basically-- 49:35.920 --> 49:40.680 most of it's done between 1870 and 1930, 49:40.679 --> 49:42.009 it's almost all done. 49:42.010 --> 49:44.240 This just sweeps through Europe, and again as I've showed 49:44.235 --> 49:46.075 you on the maps, it includes Russia, 49:46.081 --> 49:49.361 Eastern Europe, economically and educationally 49:49.358 --> 49:52.268 very underdeveloped kinds of places, 49:52.268 --> 49:56.468 and yet the fertility drops, this is all of Europe, 49:56.469 --> 49:58.139 nobody is left out. 49:58.139 --> 50:04.739 Again, it makes it difficult to put an economic or an 50:04.740 --> 50:11.090 educational, any of these other variables on it. 50:11.090 --> 50:15.220 What you have instead is, and one of these stories you 50:15.221 --> 50:19.141 read about in your reading-- remember that each of these 50:19.137 --> 50:22.697 graduate students and post docs was put on a different country 50:22.699 --> 50:24.919 of Europe in the Princeton project. 50:24.920 --> 50:27.240 One had to do England, one had to do-- 50:27.239 --> 50:29.559 and have the who did England is going to be guest lecturer here 50:29.561 --> 50:30.851 next week, next Thursday, 50:30.849 --> 50:34.049 he's not going to talk about that because you'll have had 50:34.045 --> 50:35.525 enough of that by then. 50:35.530 --> 50:39.110 There was a guy who was assigned Spain; 50:39.110 --> 50:43.450 this guy is William Leisure, and this I think you read a 50:43.449 --> 50:44.949 little bit about. 50:44.949 --> 50:48.289 He gathered all this data, a huge amount of work in all 50:48.291 --> 50:52.011 the Spanish archives of every province from going way back to 50:52.005 --> 50:54.825 1830 or something, whatever was there, 50:54.833 --> 50:55.873 he looked at. 50:55.869 --> 51:00.079 And he put it all together and he could not make any sense out 51:00.079 --> 51:01.389 of it whatsoever. 51:01.389 --> 51:05.359 This guy was going out of his mind and he took to drawing a 51:05.360 --> 51:08.130 map of fertility rates, sort of like those kinds of 51:08.126 --> 51:11.346 maps I just showed you, fertility rates at different 51:11.353 --> 51:15.653 points in time in the different provinces of Spain. 51:15.650 --> 51:18.900 He showed it to everybody and apparently he was walking around 51:18.900 --> 51:21.990 campus one day and he saw a professor of Spanish Literature 51:21.992 --> 51:25.302 who he had met somewhere and he said he buttonholed the guy and 51:25.297 --> 51:27.427 showed him these graphs and said, 51:27.429 --> 51:30.769 'I can't make any sense out of this,' and he told the professor 51:30.766 --> 51:31.516 what it was. 51:31.518 --> 51:34.738 The professor said, 'That's the linguistic regions 51:34.740 --> 51:35.530 of Spain.' 51:35.530 --> 51:39.790 As you know Spain had a variety of kingdoms, 51:39.789 --> 51:43.899 they were controlled by the Muslims, 51:43.900 --> 51:46.930 and then the Northern Christians kicked them out, 51:46.929 --> 51:51.279 but there's Castille and Navarra, and Aragon and all of 51:51.284 --> 51:53.224 these cultural things. 51:53.219 --> 51:55.869 And still the Basques consider themselves quite separate, 51:55.869 --> 51:58.239 the Catalans consider themselves separate, 51:58.239 --> 52:02.199 so Spain, to this day, has serious regional 52:02.199 --> 52:03.519 diversities. 52:03.518 --> 52:08.458 What apparently Leisure had come up with unknowingly was a 52:08.460 --> 52:13.750 map of the linguistic boundaries of ancient medieval Spain and 52:13.748 --> 52:15.828 they still remained. 52:15.829 --> 52:18.719 The idea that he came up with, as well as is fairly obvious, 52:18.719 --> 52:20.629 is that people that could speak the same language, 52:20.630 --> 52:23.370 the same dialect, were of the common culture 52:23.365 --> 52:27.055 would talk to each other and that it was social spread what 52:27.056 --> 52:30.866 kept the province, a linguistic region uniform in 52:30.871 --> 52:34.791 its fertility practices was the cultural spread, 52:34.789 --> 52:38.909 but that was the cultural unit as well as the linguistic unit 52:38.905 --> 52:41.165 and it didn't cross boundaries. 52:41.170 --> 52:45.800 Another more quantified example of that is Belgium and here is 52:45.800 --> 52:50.130 Belgium, in Belgium they speak two languages which are? 52:50.130 --> 52:53.800 French and Flemish, and Flemish is almost the same 52:53.804 --> 52:54.184 as? 52:54.179 --> 52:56.439 Dutch, which is almost the same as? 52:56.440 --> 53:00.390 German, so it's a big divide, it's a Germanic/Romance 53:00.391 --> 53:01.761 language divide. 53:01.760 --> 53:06.790 This is a big language divide and in Belgium here are the 53:06.786 --> 53:11.136 various provinces of Belgium, and these are the southern ones 53:11.135 --> 53:13.055 near-- France is over here--so these 53:13.059 --> 53:15.799 are all French speaking and Holland is up there, 53:15.800 --> 53:19.590 and Germany is over here--these are the Flemish speaking 53:19.592 --> 53:20.422 provinces. 53:20.420 --> 53:23.990 53:23.989 --> 53:32.909 When you look at their fertility what happens is that-- 53:32.909 --> 53:46.619 53:46.619 --> 53:49.409 when you look at their fertility France is, 53:49.409 --> 53:52.199 as you've heard 100 times, starts the fertility 53:52.199 --> 53:54.789 transition, fertility drops there. 53:54.789 --> 53:58.829 It goes--it takes a fair amount of time but it goes first into 53:58.829 --> 54:02.469 French speaking Belgium and French speaking Belgium then 54:02.471 --> 54:04.591 conforms to the French norm. 54:04.590 --> 54:09.830 Then there's this language line and you compare across that line 54:09.831 --> 54:14.911 and nothing north of the line changes and it takes 60 years to 54:14.907 --> 54:18.817 cross that language line that I showed you. 54:18.820 --> 54:37.240 54:37.239 --> 54:40.899 It takes 60 takes to cross the language barrier. 54:40.900 --> 54:44.270 This guy Lesthaeghe, the guy who studied-- 54:44.268 --> 54:47.988 who was assigned to Belgium, and he is Belgian himself, 54:47.989 --> 54:49.539 he said well what could be causing it, 54:49.539 --> 54:53.509 what are the differences between north/south aside from 54:53.510 --> 54:54.320 language? 54:54.320 --> 54:56.680 When he was doing it they didn't really come up with 54:56.679 --> 54:58.089 this-- when he was originally--when he 54:58.090 --> 55:00.630 started it they didn't-- hadn't understood this cultural 55:00.628 --> 55:03.858 difference and so he's looking at socioeconomic variables. 55:03.860 --> 55:08.200 And so he took villages across that boundary line there, 55:08.199 --> 55:10.769 and you take no more than five kilometers difference and he 55:10.768 --> 55:13.338 would take villages that were matched: the soil was kind of 55:13.338 --> 55:15.528 the same, the agricultural productivity 55:15.534 --> 55:18.764 was the same, and every kind of socioeconomic 55:18.762 --> 55:23.512 variable that he could find was not different across that line 55:23.512 --> 55:25.072 except fertility. 55:25.070 --> 55:29.450 That the northern line just had an awful lot more children then 55:29.447 --> 55:32.407 south of the line, French speaking Flemish 55:32.414 --> 55:35.264 speaking and presumably eliminating all these 55:35.255 --> 55:38.675 socioeconomic variables by comparing these neighboring 55:38.675 --> 55:41.835 towns all across Belgium from east to west, 55:41.840 --> 55:46.780 all across this line he looked at these kinds of paired 55:46.782 --> 55:47.792 villages. 55:47.789 --> 55:49.419 Well he said what was doing it? 55:49.420 --> 55:55.710 Well there's--so they started thinking about cultural reasons, 55:55.710 --> 55:58.190 and at that time in Europe there were two-- 55:58.190 --> 56:01.780 democracy was still fairly--real democracy was still 56:01.775 --> 56:06.195 fairly young but most everybody had the vote and there was a lot 56:06.204 --> 56:09.934 of discussion about who would control democracy, 56:09.929 --> 56:11.979 whether democracy was a good or bad thing, 56:11.980 --> 56:15.330 so the suffrage, the expanded kind of suffrage, 56:15.329 --> 56:18.969 they still had kings and all that, but the power was being 56:18.967 --> 56:22.667 eroded by parliaments and there were two sets of parties as 56:22.668 --> 56:25.028 really there still are in Europe. 56:25.030 --> 56:29.430 One was the Catholic party, the conservative party called-- 56:29.429 --> 56:33.309 the other was the socialist party's or the communist 56:33.311 --> 56:38.391 party's, and anybody know what they're 56:38.389 --> 56:39.559 called? 56:39.559 --> 56:43.109 The Social Democrats and there are a variety of names other 56:43.106 --> 56:45.346 parties-- the Christian Demo--the parties 56:45.353 --> 56:48.553 that are still named Christian Democrats and Social Democrats. 56:48.550 --> 56:54.160 Like in Germany they pass the premiership back and forth 56:54.159 --> 56:55.689 between them. 56:55.690 --> 56:59.440 That was established at this time and it was considered a 56:59.438 --> 57:03.318 fairly good marker for what we call secularization that how 57:03.320 --> 57:07.270 much a person was still believing in the old morality, 57:07.268 --> 57:09.868 the old styled things was religious, 57:09.869 --> 57:13.409 they would usually vote for the Christian democrats. 57:13.409 --> 57:17.039 People that had undergone some sort of a transition and now 57:17.041 --> 57:20.801 were buying socialist theory or worker solidarity theory, 57:20.800 --> 57:27.060 or believed in unions would vote the Democratic Socialist 57:27.056 --> 57:27.946 party. 57:27.949 --> 57:31.369 What he did, he said, 'okay let's look at 57:31.369 --> 57:36.409 each of the provinces again, this is a smaller grouping then 57:36.414 --> 57:39.924 province and see what their vote is.' 57:39.920 --> 57:43.900 There's the Catholic party, and this is the percentage of 57:43.904 --> 57:47.314 non-Catholic party, and then he just compared this 57:47.309 --> 57:50.069 with how much their fertility had declined, 57:50.070 --> 57:52.360 again, always within marriage. 57:52.360 --> 57:56.530 It turns out the more non-Catholic they are the 57:56.534 --> 57:59.714 greater the decline in fertility. 57:59.710 --> 58:04.090 It's kind of a backwards thing, and very nice line of 58:04.092 --> 58:05.612 proportionality. 58:05.610 --> 58:08.070 This is an exact proportionality and the points 58:08.072 --> 58:10.162 stick really very close to that line; 58:10.159 --> 58:13.149 it's not hard to see what that line is, 58:13.150 --> 58:17.270 and so people--what became clear is that culturally people 58:17.268 --> 58:21.028 that were voting for the Catholic party and therefore 58:21.025 --> 58:24.705 were in the older mode of culture did not drop their 58:24.710 --> 58:26.590 fertility very much. 58:26.590 --> 58:30.370 People who were voting the socialist, 58:30.369 --> 58:31.439 the left wing, liberal whatever you want to 58:31.438 --> 58:34.408 call it, had dropped their fertility by 58:34.405 --> 58:45.075 60% to 80%, a huge drop in fertility. 58:45.079 --> 58:54.669 All right, these kinds of data kept coming up. 58:54.670 --> 59:01.750 To conclude--the bottom line is that in this Princeton project 59:01.746 --> 59:07.896 they just could not tie fertility change to any of the 59:07.896 --> 59:12.186 standard socioeconomic variables. 59:12.190 --> 59:14.960 Now the word socioeconomic, I think, is a terrible word. 59:14.960 --> 59:17.950 What is not either socio or economic? 59:17.949 --> 59:21.119 I always go around and ask people descriptions of it and I 59:21.123 --> 59:24.133 think it basically means anything you can quantify, 59:24.130 --> 59:26.880 and you get interesting variables like education and 59:26.876 --> 59:29.726 we'll see this sort of disastrously from understanding 59:29.730 --> 59:32.530 the situation when we come into the third world. 59:32.530 --> 59:36.090 Education suits you for a better job, 59:36.090 --> 59:38.090 especially women, so when people get educated 59:38.090 --> 59:40.410 it's an economic variable because it suits you for a 59:40.411 --> 59:42.221 better job, you can get higher pay, 59:42.222 --> 59:44.862 it makes it more worth your while to go out and work than 59:44.860 --> 59:46.320 stay home and have children. 59:46.320 --> 59:50.290 But, education also gives you a window on the world and makes 59:50.286 --> 59:53.646 you more open to new ideas, a greater sense of agency that 59:53.654 --> 59:56.334 you can talk back to your husband or your mother-in-law, 59:56.329 --> 59:58.499 and so forth, so a lot of the variables-- 59:58.500 --> 1:00:01.850 you can't decide is this an economic variable or a social 1:00:01.851 --> 1:00:02.511 variable? 1:00:02.510 --> 1:00:07.010 It's very unfortunate that they use this term socioeconomic 1:00:07.014 --> 1:00:07.874 variable. 1:00:07.869 --> 1:00:11.879 But, I think it was early stage in understanding the problem and 1:00:11.878 --> 1:00:14.358 they didn't know what to do about it. 1:00:14.360 --> 1:00:17.410 Also another problem, it's always in the social 1:00:17.405 --> 1:00:20.115 sciences when you try to do these studies, 1:00:20.119 --> 1:00:23.629 getting the data itself is really very difficult. 1:00:23.630 --> 1:00:26.740 Since Europe is organized politically into provinces 1:00:26.735 --> 1:00:29.715 that's where the data was gathered and that's-- 1:00:29.719 --> 1:00:33.249 they had province level things, they didn't have individual 1:00:33.253 --> 1:00:36.823 village level information, they didn't have individual 1:00:36.820 --> 1:00:38.690 family kind of information. 1:00:38.690 --> 1:00:42.440 When you do an aggregation, even as finely as they could 1:00:42.440 --> 1:00:44.470 do, I mean it's amazing to do every 1:00:44.472 --> 1:00:46.622 province in Europe so that was for the-- 1:00:46.619 --> 1:00:50.459 for that period of social science that was the low level 1:00:50.461 --> 1:00:53.931 of aggregation, but still within each province 1:00:53.934 --> 1:00:58.814 you have a huge range of people in very different circumstances, 1:00:58.809 --> 1:01:02.409 and maybe you're missing a lot by this aggregation, 1:01:02.409 --> 1:01:05.069 so aggregation is a problem. 1:01:05.070 --> 1:01:08.550 Since this period a lot of social science scholars have 1:01:08.545 --> 1:01:11.505 come back and argued tremendously over this and 1:01:11.507 --> 1:01:14.617 saying, 'no there really are economic 1:01:14.623 --> 1:01:19.643 reasons for fertility decline,' and we'll talk about those in a 1:01:19.635 --> 1:01:21.005 later lecture. 1:01:21.010 --> 1:01:24.710 I just want to summarize--we spent a lot of time on this 1:01:24.711 --> 1:01:27.541 demographic transition and it's theory, 1:01:27.539 --> 1:01:30.119 and a lot of reading--and every year students say, 1:01:30.119 --> 1:01:33.759 'oh I hated that part of the course,' but it is in a sense 1:01:33.762 --> 1:01:35.542 the most-- for the modern times it's the 1:01:35.543 --> 1:01:37.503 most important part of the course because everything else 1:01:37.500 --> 1:01:39.820 that you read, every understanding of the 1:01:39.824 --> 1:01:43.414 what's happening now in developing countries is based on 1:01:43.411 --> 1:01:45.461 this stuff, either agrees with it or 1:01:45.463 --> 1:01:47.813 disagrees with it, or uses the same methodology or 1:01:47.807 --> 1:01:50.657 very self consciously tries to use a different methodology, 1:01:50.659 --> 1:01:52.339 this is the foundation of the fields. 1:01:52.340 --> 1:01:54.920 That's one reason you should know about it. 1:01:54.920 --> 1:01:57.890 The other is it's such a tremendous change, 1:01:57.893 --> 1:02:01.013 it may be to my mind, it's the most important 1:02:01.009 --> 1:02:03.629 revolution ever in human history. 1:02:03.630 --> 1:02:06.230 Look what happens throughout this period. 1:02:06.230 --> 1:02:09.750 Life, people get to live three times as long, 1:02:09.753 --> 1:02:14.243 imagine if you're at 20, how many of you are under 20? 1:02:14.239 --> 1:02:17.889 Okay, half of you would be dead, half of this class would 1:02:17.891 --> 1:02:21.281 be dead if we weren't--if we hadn't gone through this 1:02:21.282 --> 1:02:23.372 transition of modernization. 1:02:23.369 --> 1:02:25.369 He's happy about that. 1:02:25.369 --> 1:02:28.349 The numbers of human beings, the number of people that we 1:02:28.349 --> 1:02:31.009 now are able to keep alive is ten times larger, 1:02:31.010 --> 1:02:33.840 everyday it gets bigger, but last time I counted ten 1:02:33.840 --> 1:02:37.340 times larger than what we think the population was back then. 1:02:37.340 --> 1:02:40.600 So an enormous--even though it's the introduction of 1:02:40.596 --> 1:02:44.296 contraception which limits the amount of people or tries to 1:02:44.300 --> 1:02:46.280 limit the amount of people. 1:02:46.280 --> 1:02:50.220 In fact, the number of people on earth has just expanded 1:02:50.219 --> 1:02:54.589 enormously, both in numbers and in how long each one lives. 1:02:54.590 --> 1:02:56.300 Wealth, individual per capita wealth, 1:02:56.300 --> 1:02:59.910 we saw that the industrial revolution by itself got into 1:02:59.914 --> 1:03:04.584 Malthusian problems and didn't, at least up until the fertility 1:03:04.579 --> 1:03:07.909 transition, did not improve people's 1:03:07.909 --> 1:03:09.739 individual wealth. 1:03:09.739 --> 1:03:13.509 That required the combination of industrial revolution which 1:03:13.507 --> 1:03:16.887 increased production and fertility control which put a 1:03:16.893 --> 1:03:20.533 limit on the number of people trying to get advantage from 1:03:20.534 --> 1:03:22.584 that increased production. 1:03:22.579 --> 1:03:25.339 We've seen a tremendous democratization of marriage. 1:03:25.340 --> 1:03:29.410 Imagine a society where 30% of--70% of the people are 1:03:29.411 --> 1:03:31.861 unmarried, we sort of talk a lot about 1:03:31.864 --> 1:03:35.004 marriage and how marriage is going away as an institution. 1:03:35.000 --> 1:03:36.470 We're way, way ahead of that. 1:03:36.469 --> 1:03:41.039 China is way ahead of that and so imagine there was that-- 1:03:41.039 --> 1:03:44.059 very few of you would have prospects of ever getting 1:03:44.063 --> 1:03:47.623 married because society just didn't allow it and the same for 1:03:47.619 --> 1:03:52.289 sex as I've mentioned, the democratization of sex. 1:03:52.289 --> 1:03:54.959 Your fertility coming under your individual control, 1:03:54.960 --> 1:03:57.840 what a big change in life, that you, now it's one of the 1:03:57.838 --> 1:03:59.408 big decision you can make. 1:03:59.409 --> 1:04:01.879 Do I want some children, many children, 1:04:01.875 --> 1:04:04.855 few children, whatever, when do I want them? 1:04:04.860 --> 1:04:07.810 All this comes under control. 1:04:07.809 --> 1:04:10.559 Within marriage, previously couples were 1:04:10.556 --> 1:04:14.636 constantly under the pressure of constant childbearing, 1:04:14.639 --> 1:04:17.199 that the wife was always either pregnant or lactating. 1:04:17.199 --> 1:04:20.889 Later I'll show you some statistics from the third world 1:04:20.887 --> 1:04:24.507 that women are almost never free, they're always either 1:04:24.510 --> 1:04:27.260 pregnant or lactating until they die. 1:04:27.260 --> 1:04:30.760 Men had to go out--this is a period when men were basically 1:04:30.755 --> 1:04:31.895 the breadwinners. 1:04:31.900 --> 1:04:35.420 They had to support an ever increasing number of children 1:04:35.420 --> 1:04:38.000 under difficult economic circumstances. 1:04:38.000 --> 1:04:40.930 So men and women were freed from the requirement-- 1:04:40.929 --> 1:04:43.839 they had no choice--the requirement of supporting, 1:04:43.840 --> 1:04:46.890 taking care of and supporting these large families. 1:04:46.889 --> 1:04:51.629 There's so many issues that changed during this time. 1:04:51.630 --> 1:04:55.110 If you--if any of you are thinking of doing term papers 1:04:55.110 --> 1:04:58.910 there's just an infinite number of things that have not even 1:04:58.914 --> 1:05:00.144 been looked at. 1:05:00.139 --> 1:05:02.609 For instance, we talked a lot about 1:05:02.612 --> 1:05:05.452 abandonment of children, infanticide. 1:05:05.449 --> 1:05:08.569 When do you think that disappeared? 1:05:08.570 --> 1:05:11.950 Something in about this time; you read about it into the 1:05:11.949 --> 1:05:14.129 1800s there was a lot of it and then it goes away. 1:05:14.130 --> 1:05:17.900 There's a lot written about the period when it was heavy and not 1:05:17.903 --> 1:05:21.143 much understanding of why did infanticide disappear. 1:05:21.139 --> 1:05:22.519 Was it due to this? 1:05:22.519 --> 1:05:25.579 I don't know the answer; I don't think it has been 1:05:25.583 --> 1:05:27.633 discovered; investigated, 1:05:27.626 --> 1:05:29.036 a great term paper. 1:05:29.039 --> 1:05:32.349 What about the romantic conception of marriage? 1:05:32.349 --> 1:05:35.079 When marriage changes like this it becomes less of an economic 1:05:35.077 --> 1:05:36.767 thing, less of a childbearing thing, 1:05:36.766 --> 1:05:38.316 you don't need your wife to work, 1:05:38.320 --> 1:05:41.590 especially on the farm. 1:05:41.590 --> 1:05:45.320 What is the tie in between romantic conceptions that we all 1:05:45.322 --> 1:05:49.122 now have about marriage and love and all that and this whole 1:05:49.121 --> 1:05:50.861 demographic transition? 1:05:50.860 --> 1:05:55.110 In almost every way you can think of modern culture, 1:05:55.110 --> 1:05:58.780 this is at the root of it, that this is a thing that you 1:05:58.777 --> 1:06:02.177 always have to consider as whatever you believe, 1:06:02.179 --> 1:06:05.369 however you're leading your life, how much of it is due to 1:06:05.367 --> 1:06:08.827 these pioneers that we've talked about that started controlling 1:06:08.833 --> 1:06:12.023 their fertility as an individual decision rather than as a 1:06:12.021 --> 1:06:13.421 community decision? 1:06:13.420 --> 1:06:17.340 Okay, there's no reading for today because the lecture is now 1:06:17.335 --> 1:06:20.905 caught up for the reading, so next week we'll talk on 1:06:20.911 --> 1:06:24.471 Tuesday and then on Thursday we have a guest lecturer. 1:06:24.469 --> 1:06:26.639 The schedule changed from what you have. 1:06:26.639 --> 1:06:31.999